44 of the starting pitchers we track have taken the mound at least 15 times in 2026 with a strikeout line posted on them. Michael Wacha has cleared that number most often: over in 22 of 31 decided starts, 71.0%, averaging 5.03 strikeouts against an average posted line of 4.47. Sample sizes sit beside every row.
A fact table, not a projection. Every figure is a count of what already happened against a real posted number, with its sample size attached.
Over rate against the posted strikeout line
A strikeout prop asks one question: does the pitcher finish above or below the number the sportsbook posted. This table answers it for every starter on our player pages who has been given that number at least 15 times this season. It is a count of what already happened, not a projection of what happens next.
The number a start is graded against is the OPENING line: each sportsbook's earliest capture for that game, then the median across the books quoting it. Our archive is a fixed-hour grid, so we can see openers honestly and cannot claim a closing line at all.
| # | Pitcher | Team | Over rate | Over | Under | Push | Avg K | Avg line | Lined starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Wacha | KC | 71.0% | 22 | 9 | 0 | 5.03 | 4.47 | 31 |
| 2 | Jesús Luzardo | PHI | 67.9% | 19 | 9 | 0 | 7.68 | 6.68 | 28 |
| 3 | Dylan Cease | TOR | 61.5% | 16 | 10 | 0 | 8.04 | 7.35 | 26 |
| 4 | Taj Bradley | MIN | 61.3% | 19 | 12 | 0 | 6.61 | 5.69 | 31 |
| 5 | Jake Irvin | WSH | 61.1% | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4.78 | 4.17 | 18 |
| 6 | Bryce Miller | SEA | 57.9% | 11 | 8 | 0 | 5.21 | 5.08 | 19 |
| 7 | Brady Singer | CIN | 57.1% | 16 | 12 | 0 | 4.07 | 4.43 | 28 |
| 8 | Nathan Eovaldi | TEX | 57.1% | 12 | 9 | 0 | 6.10 | 5.83 | 21 |
| 9 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | 52.0% | 13 | 12 | 0 | 6.92 | 6.50 | 25 |
| 10 | Andrew Abbott | CIN | 51.7% | 15 | 14 | 0 | 4.14 | 4.40 | 29 |
| 11 | Cristopher Sánchez | PHI | 50.0% | 14 | 14 | 0 | 6.96 | 6.68 | 28 |
| 12 | Gavin Williams | CLE | 50.0% | 14 | 14 | 0 | 7.43 | 6.54 | 28 |
| 13 | Kevin Gausman | TOR | 50.0% | 14 | 14 | 0 | 5.93 | 5.71 | 28 |
| 14 | Logan Gilbert | SEA | 50.0% | 14 | 14 | 0 | 6.39 | 6.21 | 28 |
| 15 | Joe Ryan | MIN | 50.0% | 13 | 13 | 0 | 5.85 | 5.88 | 26 |
| 16 | Sonny Gray | BOS | 50.0% | 13 | 13 | 0 | 5.12 | 5.12 | 26 |
| 17 | Seth Lugo | KC | 48.3% | 14 | 15 | 0 | 4.34 | 4.53 | 29 |
| 18 | Michael Lorenzen | TOR | 47.8% | 11 | 12 | 0 | 3.35 | 3.72 | 23 |
| 19 | Colin Rea | CHC | 47.4% | 9 | 10 | 0 | 3.95 | 4.18 | 19 |
| 20 | Hunter Brown | HOU | 47.1% | 8 | 9 | 0 | 5.94 | 5.97 | 17 |
| 21 | Jack Flaherty | DET | 47.1% | 8 | 9 | 0 | 5.29 | 5.44 | 17 |
| 22 | Max Fried | NYY | 47.1% | 8 | 9 | 0 | 5.29 | 5.38 | 17 |
| 23 | Ryne Nelson | AZ | 46.7% | 7 | 8 | 0 | 4.13 | 4.37 | 15 |
| 24 | Logan Webb | SF | 45.8% | 11 | 13 | 0 | 4.92 | 5.21 | 24 |
| 25 | Tarik Skubal | LAD | 45.8% | 11 | 13 | 0 | 7.21 | 7.50 | 24 |
| 26 | Aaron Nola | PHI | 45.2% | 14 | 17 | 0 | 5.55 | 5.34 | 31 |
| 27 | Tanner Bibee | CLE | 45.2% | 14 | 17 | 0 | 4.45 | 4.66 | 31 |
| 28 | Freddy Peralta | TB | 44.8% | 13 | 16 | 0 | 4.90 | 5.40 | 29 |
| 29 | Ranger Suarez | BOS | 44.4% | 12 | 15 | 0 | 5.11 | 4.94 | 27 |
| 30 | Bryce Elder | ATL | 44.0% | 11 | 14 | 0 | 4.64 | 4.50 | 25 |
| 31 | Kyle Freeland | COL | 44.0% | 11 | 14 | 0 | 4.20 | 3.86 | 25 |
| 32 | Bryan Woo | SEA | 43.3% | 13 | 17 | 0 | 5.83 | 5.83 | 30 |
| 33 | Bailey Ober | MIN | 42.9% | 9 | 12 | 0 | 3.90 | 4.02 | 21 |
| 34 | MacKenzie Gore | TEX | 41.9% | 13 | 18 | 0 | 5.42 | 5.79 | 31 |
| 35 | Mitch Keller | PIT | 40.0% | 8 | 12 | 0 | 4.05 | 4.35 | 20 |
| 36 | Patrick Corbin | TOR | 40.0% | 6 | 9 | 0 | 3.47 | 3.90 | 15 |
| 37 | Luis Castillo | SEA | 39.1% | 9 | 14 | 0 | 4.26 | 4.76 | 23 |
| 38 | Jameson Taillon | TOR | 38.9% | 7 | 11 | 0 | 4.22 | 4.28 | 18 |
| 39 | Merrill Kelly | AZ | 38.5% | 10 | 16 | 0 | 3.85 | 4.08 | 26 |
| 40 | Framber Valdez | DET | 37.9% | 11 | 18 | 0 | 4.31 | 4.91 | 29 |
All 44 pitchers with at least 15 lined 2026 starts, ranked by over rate. Over rate is overs divided by decided starts, so the Push column is outside it. 2026 season, our own odds archive, as of 2026-09-30.
How this was measured
- The line. Each book's earliest capture of the pitcher's strikeout prop for that game is treated as its opening number. The posted number for the game is the discrete median across the books quoting it, which returns a number a book actually posted rather than an average between two of them, and on an even book count it returns the lower of the middle pair. The books read are DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, BetOnline and BetRivers.
- The filter. Minimum 15 lined 2026 starts. A start counts only if he started it and a line existed for it. This is the conditioning that makes the list mean something: a 100% over rate over three starts is noise, and it is exactly what a date-only ranking would put on top.
- The rate. Overs divided by overs plus unders. A start where the strikeout total landed exactly on the number is a push and sits in its own column, outside the rate. Overs divided by starts and overs divided by decided starts are different numbers, and only the second one is a rate.
- Ties. Ties are broken by the larger decided sample first and then alphabetically by name, so a rate over eight games can never outrank the same rate over thirty.
- The source. Every row is the same bucket the player's own page renders in its All lined starts row, read from the registry that generator publishes, never recomputed here. If a row and a page ever disagree, one of them is a bug rather than a difference of opinion.
- The window. 2026 season only, rebuilt daily. Figures on this page were produced by the player-pages run of 2026-09-30.
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Frequently asked questions
What does over rate against the strikeout line mean?
It is the share of a pitcher's lined starts in which his strikeout total finished above the number the sportsbooks posted before the game. Starts where the total landed exactly on the number are pushes and are excluded from the denominator, which is printed on every row.
Does a high over rate say anything about the next start?
No. This is a record of what has already happened and nothing on this page is a pick, a selection or a recommended wager. Prop lines move to reflect what a pitcher has been doing, so a past over rate is not a forward edge.
Which line is the record graded against?
The opening line: each sportsbook's earliest capture of that game's strikeout prop, then the median across the books quoting it. Our odds archive is a fixed-hour grid, so we can measure openers honestly and make no closing-line claim at all.
Why is there a minimum of 15 lined starts?
Because without one the top of the list is whoever has the fewest starts. A minimum is the difference between a conditioned trend and a coin flip, and this one is stated rather than tuned until the list looked interesting.
Related: MLB player pages · How to read a player prop trend · MLB price vs fair board
Every figure on this page is a historical measurement of what already happened, produced by a committed, re-runnable script over our own odds archive. Past frequencies are not forecasts and are not betting advice: Nebula Insights publishes no picks, no selections and no recommended wagers. You must be of legal gambling age in your jurisdiction.