MLB · Price vs fair

MLB price vs fair board

Every lined side on today's board, priced against the fair value the market itself implies: the devigged median across sportsbooks at the same posted number. A positive number means a book is posting a price better than the market consensus says the side is worth. Most prices are below fair. That is how sportsbooks make money, and this page says so out loud.

Market arithmetic, not picks. Fair value here is a market number, not a model output: it is what the books themselves imply once each one's margin is removed from its own two prices on the same bet. No projection of ours touches this page. A price above fair is a statement about one book versus the other books, never about the outcome of a game, and nothing here is a bet recommendation. Prices move constantly and this is a snapshot, so check the book before acting on any figure. We take no affiliate money and link to no sportsbook. New here? Start with what fair value means.
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Method, stated plainly

Fair value is the median devigged probability across all books quoting the same market at the same posted number. Each book's margin is removed from its own two prices before the median is taken, so the comparison basis is built from the market and nothing else. A side needs at least four books posting both sides of its own number before it carries a fair value at all: a median over two books is not a consensus, and a list ranked on noisy fair values would surface exactly the sides where our own estimate is worst.

Price vs fair compares the best available price with that consensus number: (decimal odds x fair probability - 1) x 100, in percent. This is market arithmetic, not a model, and not betting advice. Nothing on this page is a pick. Totals and props are compared only within the same posted number, never across numbers, because Over 8 and Over 8.5 are different bets. A book's own quote is one of the quotes in the consensus it is measured against, which makes every positive number here slightly conservative.

What is missing, and why. Markets where books post only one side cannot appear at all: with a single price there is no margin to remove and no fair value to compare against. MLB home run props are the standing example, measured at 1,528 Over rows and zero Under rows across our own archive on 14 August 2026. Sides quoted by fewer than four books are counted in the diagnostics below rather than shown. Quotes from a book that has stopped refreshing with the rest of the board are excluded before anything is ranked, because a ranking is a maximum and a stale price is exactly the shape that wins one.

Prices come from our own odds archive, are published by a committed script over a read-only database session, and cost no additional data purchase: they were already bought by the board capture. Read more in what fair value means in betting odds, how sportsbooks price parlays and why most +EV tools mislead.

What this page is

A comparison between what a sportsbook is paying and what the rest of the market says the same bet is worth. It is line shopping with the arithmetic shown, over every lined side we hold rather than a curated handful.

What it is not

It is not a list of bets to make. A positive number is a fact about pricing, not about the game, and it does not survive the moment a book moves its number. We publish no picks, no ratings and no model number on this page.

See the raw prices

The same board without any arithmetic on top: every book's posted moneyline, run line and total, side by side, on the MLB odds comparison grid.

What happens when you combine them

Each price carries its own margin, and combining prices multiplies the margins together. The parlay board prices every cross-game combination at the book that would take the whole ticket, against the same consensus fair. How sportsbooks price parlays shows what that costs, measured.

One team, one player

The same fair values appear on each MLB team page for that club's own markets, and on each MLB player page for that player's props. Same feed, same numbers.

Read the arithmetic first

What fair value means explains the devig step by step, and why most +EV tools mislead covers the four ways this kind of comparison goes wrong, including on this page.

The board refreshes with our MLB odds capture, ten times a day between 9am and 7pm ET. Player prop prices are captured once, on the morning of the game, and are labelled as opening prices wherever they appear. A game leaves this page the moment it starts, because the prices we hold for a game in progress are not the prices you would get. If the feed stops refreshing, the page pauses itself rather than showing you yesterday's numbers. See how to read the board, our public track record and the methodology.

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One email a week: how the market priced the week, how far from fair it sat, and how our projections did against the close. Weekly, not daily. No picks, no spam, unsubscribe anytime.

We store only your email to send the recap. Analytics, not picks. Nothing here is betting advice.