How to read the odds board
Every Nebula board pairs the market's own lines with an independent Nebula number and some factual context. This guide walks through each field so you know exactly what you're looking at — and why none of it is a pick.
What a board is
A board is a list of upcoming games. For each one we show the sportsbooks' lines (the run line or spread, the total, the moneyline), and — where we have a model for it — our own projection sitting right next to the market's number. We never turn the difference into a recommendation. The point is to let you see where an independent estimate and the market disagree, and decide for yourself whether that's interesting.
The fields, one by one
Away @ home, plus a status chip — Scheduled, Live (with score), or Final. On MLB, live scores refresh automatically.
The market's opening run line and total (and the moneyline). These are early numbers and they move through the day — we label them as opening so you know the basis.
For MLB, our independent estimate of total runs — built only from team, pitcher, park and schedule data, never from the betting line. It's shown for information beside the market's number.
The plain gap between our projection and the market's number. We render it in a single neutral colour on purpose: it is a fact about a difference, not an over/under lean. A bigger gap just means the two numbers disagree more.
The listed starting pitchers, when the league has posted them. Projections update as probables firm up.
Neutral, factual notes — recent form, splits, tendencies. Context to read the game with, not a signal telling you what to do.
On the NFL board, the most favourable price we saw for a line across major books, with the book named. It's a line-shopping convenience, not a recommendation to bet it.
A worked example
Here's a mock MLB card with the numbers deliberately left generic — read it as a layout, not real odds:
vs opening line 8.5−0.1model − line
The projection (teal) is our number; the line is the market's. The "model − line" gap is information about how they compare — never a bet direction.
How to read the model-minus-line gap
When our projection and the market disagree, that gap is a prompt to look closer — at the probables, the park, the context — not an instruction. Sometimes the market knows something our features don't (a late scratch, weather, a lineup note); sometimes the numbers genuinely differ for reasons you can weigh. We show both and let you judge.
The honest part: our projection does not beat the market, and we don't pretend it does. It's an independent second opinion, built without ever seeing a line. The exact accuracy — including where we trail — is on the methodology and track record pages.
What differs by sport
MLB boards carry our projection (projected total) plus a calibrated moneyline win probability. NFL and UFC boards show the market's lines and factual game or fighter context only — we publish no model number or lean there, because our testing didn't find a reliable one to add. When a market has no Nebula projection, that's on purpose.
This guide is for information only and is not betting advice. Nebula Insights publishes no picks, leans, or bet recommendations. Lines shown on the boards are indicative and move. 18+ only. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER.