Model Track Record

Model Track Record

Every projection we make is logged before the event and graded after shown beside the market, never backfilled or edited. What we published is what you see.

Read exactly how these projections are made and graded including the honest numbers.

Information, not picks. Our projections use only team, player, park and schedule data, they never see a betting line. We show them beside the market and the result so you can judge the model yourself. Nothing here is advice or a pick.

Public track record: the graded summary

Snapshot as of Oct 17, 10:13 AM ET (the feed's own stamp)

MarketLoggedGradedResult so farSinceAs of
MLB Over/Under837828model avg error 3.455 runs vs market 3.377 on 660 lined games2026-07-15Oct 17, 10:13 AM ET
MLB Moneyline837828hit rate 0.587, Brier 0.2442 (no-skill baseline 0.25), n=8282026-07-16Oct 17, 10:13 AM ET
NFL Moneyline7763Model's side 35 won, 28 lost, 1 void, 13 still to play · Brier 0.234 vs market 0.233 on 63 graded games2026-09-09Oct 16, 1:07 AM ET
NFL total points7764Model's side 29 won, 34 lost, 1 push, 13 still to play · average error 11.08 points vs market 11.11 on 64 graded games2026-09-09Oct 16, 1:07 AM ET
NFL Receiving Yards450411Model's side 215 won, 193 lost, 1 push, 19 void, 2 exactly on the line, 20 still to play · average error 25.09 yds vs market 24.30 on 411 lined props2026-09-10Oct 16, 1:07 AM ET

Last 250 graded MLB totals projections

DateGameOur projectionMarket openingActual totalAbs error
2026-10-15MIL @ LAD8.517.5101.49
2026-10-15TB @ CLE7.686.552.68
2026-10-15TB @ CLE8.226.553.22
2026-10-14MIL @ LAD8.537.580.53
2026-10-13CLE @ TB8.486.544.48
2026-10-12LAD @ MIL8.546.5112.46
2026-10-12CLE @ TB8.486.5101.52
2026-10-11LAD @ MIL8.666.535.66
2026-10-10CWS @ CLE8.417.026.41
2026-10-08CLE @ CWS7.477.5146.53
2026-10-07CLE @ CWS8.317.5123.69
2026-10-07TB @ NYY8.677.571.67
2026-10-07MIL @ SD8.997.544.99
2026-10-07LAD @ ATL8.387.553.38
2026-10-06MIL @ SD8.067.071.06
2026-10-06LAD @ ATL7.746.043.74
2026-10-05CWS @ CLE7.876.570.87
2026-10-05NYY @ TB7.916.570.91
2026-10-04SD @ MIL8.607.071.60
2026-10-04ATL @ LAD8.757.053.75
2026-10-03NYY @ TB8.257.017.25
2026-10-03CWS @ CLE8.577.035.57
2026-10-03SD @ MIL8.297.053.29
2026-10-01PHI @ ATL8.867.580.86
2026-09-26PIT @ DET8.688.571.68
2026-09-26TEX @ MIN8.758.080.75
2026-09-26LAA @ SEA8.537.5123.47
2026-09-26ATL @ MIA8.878.5112.13
2026-09-26STL @ MIL8.877.553.87
2026-09-26TB @ PHI8.577.0134.43
2026-09-26NYM @ WSH8.898.580.89
2026-09-26ARI @ SD9.427.5177.58
2026-09-26HOU @ OAK10.449.5154.56
2026-09-26LAD @ SF8.747.571.74
2026-09-26CLE @ KC9.318.5166.69
2026-09-26COL @ CWS8.818.5156.19
2026-09-26CIN @ TOR8.568.062.56
2026-09-25ARI @ SD9.377.0155.63
2026-09-25LAD @ SF8.497.026.49
2026-09-25COL @ CWS8.508.571.50
2026-09-25TEX @ MIN8.567.5123.44
2026-09-25CIN @ TOR8.787.5112.22
2026-09-25NYM @ WSH8.808.0134.20
2026-09-25CLE @ KC8.407.52112.60
2026-09-25TB @ PHI8.306.526.30
2026-09-25LAA @ SEA8.586.5123.42
2026-09-25PIT @ DET8.577.5156.43
2026-09-25ATL @ MIA8.568.035.56
2026-09-25STL @ MIL8.767.5123.24
2026-09-24CWS @ KC9.108.5100.90
2026-09-24TB @ NYY8.006.5102.00
2026-09-24HOU @ OAK10.0611.0121.94
2026-09-24CLE @ BOS8.456.517.45
2026-09-24STL @ PIT8.207.035.20
2026-09-24ARI @ COL11.0910.0208.91
2026-09-24SD @ LAD8.027.562.02
2026-09-24CIN @ ATL8.617.5134.39
2026-09-24MIL @ PHI9.038.063.03
2026-09-24LAA @ SEA8.797.0101.21
2026-09-24MIA @ CHC8.597.535.59
2026-09-24NYM @ TEX8.528.044.52
2026-09-23MIN @ SF8.837.562.83
2026-09-23TOR @ BAL8.837.562.83
2026-09-23CLE @ BOS7.997.516.99
2026-09-23WSH @ DET8.788.062.78
2026-09-23MIA @ CHC8.416.553.41
2026-09-23LAA @ OAK10.399.5100.39
2026-09-23TB @ NYY8.857.0112.15
2026-09-23HOU @ SEA8.797.5112.21
2026-09-23STL @ PIT8.337.562.33
2026-09-23MIL @ PHI8.057.553.05
2026-09-23NYM @ TEX8.867.590.14
2026-09-23CWS @ KC9.078.590.07
2026-09-23ARI @ COL11.2211.083.22
2026-09-23CIN @ ATL8.137.553.13
2026-09-23SD @ LAD8.068.062.06
2026-09-22CWS @ KC8.778.52516.23
2026-09-22WSH @ DET8.408.544.40
2026-09-22ARI @ COL11.5711.092.57
2026-09-22HOU @ SEA8.497.571.49
2026-09-22SD @ LAD9.088.072.08
2026-09-22MIA @ CHC9.046.5100.96
2026-09-22MIN @ SF8.527.553.52
2026-09-22TB @ NYY8.096.571.09
2026-09-22CLE @ BOS7.736.552.73
2026-09-22STL @ PIT8.027.526.02
2026-09-22MIL @ PHI8.607.5101.40
2026-09-22NYM @ TEX9.388.090.38
2026-09-22CIN @ ATL9.499.045.49
2026-09-22LAA @ OAK10.799.5165.21
2026-09-21MIN @ SF9.178.072.17
2026-09-21WSH @ DET8.728.0112.28
2026-09-21TOR @ BAL8.767.571.76
2026-09-20CHC @ CIN9.2310.0100.77
2026-09-20MIN @ LAA8.708.580.70
2026-09-20KC @ PIT8.878.571.87
2026-09-20OAK @ CLE8.267.017.26
2026-09-20MIL @ BAL8.997.535.99
2026-09-20SF @ LAD8.798.044.79
2026-09-20MIA @ SD9.388.0100.62
2026-09-20DET @ CWS8.628.090.38
2026-09-20TOR @ TEX8.687.590.32
2026-09-20SEA @ COL10.5910.537.59
2026-09-20WSH @ STL9.599.081.59
2026-09-20ATL @ HOU8.958.062.95
2026-09-20PHI @ NYM8.288.090.72
2026-09-20BOS @ TB8.617.562.61
2026-09-20NYY @ ARI9.318.5122.69
2026-09-19MIL @ BAL8.947.517.94
2026-09-19BOS @ TB8.787.535.78
2026-09-19SF @ LAD8.727.0145.28
2026-09-19KC @ PIT8.738.0112.27
2026-09-19CHC @ CIN9.749.572.74
2026-09-19DET @ CWS8.568.044.56
2026-09-19MIN @ LAA8.207.5112.80
2026-09-19OAK @ CLE9.058.0188.95
2026-09-19PHI @ NYM8.468.5134.54
2026-09-19MIA @ SD9.067.5133.94
2026-09-19ATL @ HOU9.158.590.15
2026-09-19SEA @ COL10.4911.582.49
2026-09-19TOR @ TEX9.148.081.14
2026-09-19WSH @ STL9.228.5133.78
2026-09-19NYY @ ARI8.977.580.97
2026-09-18OAK @ CLE8.438.580.43
2026-09-18WSH @ STL8.797.5101.21
2026-09-18ATL @ HOU8.458.580.45
2026-09-18DET @ CWS8.508.51910.50
2026-09-18SF @ LAD8.688.0101.32
2026-09-18NYY @ ARI9.448.0111.56
2026-09-18MIA @ SD8.337.5101.67
2026-09-18KC @ PIT8.778.0134.23
2026-09-18BOS @ TB8.267.562.26
2026-09-18MIN @ LAA8.848.535.84
2026-09-17DET @ CWS8.848.544.84
2026-09-17KC @ HOU9.749.081.74
2026-09-17OAK @ TB8.757.5112.25
2026-09-17PHI @ NYM8.778.035.77
2026-09-17MIL @ PIT9.339.0111.67
2026-09-17MIN @ LAA8.437.590.57
2026-09-17SD @ COL11.1711.0110.17
2026-09-17LAD @ CIN10.1010.0100.10
2026-09-17BOS @ TEX8.487.571.48
2026-09-16DET @ TOR9.348.563.34
2026-09-16PHI @ WSH9.178.536.17
2026-09-16NYY @ MIN9.208.090.20
2026-09-16SEA @ LAA8.308.090.70
2026-09-16LAD @ CIN10.268.582.26
2026-09-16CWS @ CLE8.717.590.29
2026-09-16MIA @ ARI8.968.571.96
2026-09-16BAL @ NYM8.809.080.80
2026-09-16MIL @ PIT8.727.590.28
2026-09-16SF @ STL9.788.0111.22
2026-09-16OAK @ TB8.758.071.75
2026-09-16KC @ HOU8.238.571.23
2026-09-16SD @ COL11.4811.5120.52
2026-09-16ATL @ CHC8.957.5123.05
2026-09-16BOS @ TEX9.558.0100.45
2026-09-15MIA @ ARI9.768.563.76
2026-09-15SEA @ LAA8.258.035.25
2026-09-15KC @ HOU8.328.062.32
2026-09-14LAD @ CIN9.358.054.35
2026-09-14MIA @ ARI9.288.0155.72
2026-09-14DET @ TOR9.077.5111.93
2026-09-14SEA @ LAA8.188.0101.82
2026-09-14ATL @ CHC8.899.5101.11
2026-09-14BAL @ NYM9.638.536.63
2026-09-14NYY @ MIN9.198.5111.81
2026-09-14CWS @ CLE8.257.0101.75
2026-09-14SD @ COL11.4111.0153.59
2026-09-14SF @ STL9.337.536.33
2026-09-13BAL @ TOR8.287.590.72
2026-09-13TEX @ ARI8.808.0134.20
2026-09-13HOU @ TB8.737.5189.27
2026-09-13CWS @ STL9.128.045.12
2026-09-13LAD @ MIA8.548.5101.46
2026-09-13CLE @ MIN9.288.0111.72
2026-09-13COL @ DET10.158.591.15
2026-09-13PHI @ ATL8.739.0134.27
2026-09-13SD @ SF8.497.0101.51
2026-09-13LAA @ WSH9.559.0111.45
2026-09-13NYM @ NYY8.417.526.41
2026-09-13SEA @ OAK10.419.5154.59
2026-09-13CIN @ MIL9.438.072.43
2026-09-13KC @ BOS8.247.553.24
2026-09-13PIT @ CHC9.577.072.57
2026-09-12NYM @ NYY8.998.0145.01
2026-09-12KC @ BOS9.048.563.04
2026-09-12LAA @ WSH9.388.0111.62
2026-09-12COL @ DET9.688.5188.32
2026-09-12TEX @ ARI9.818.581.81
2026-09-12BAL @ TOR8.518.5101.49
2026-09-12LAD @ MIA8.448.071.44
2026-09-12PHI @ ATL8.587.5145.42
2026-09-12CLE @ MIN9.248.572.24
2026-09-12HOU @ TB8.538.053.53
2026-09-12SEA @ OAK9.759.52010.25
2026-09-12PIT @ CHC9.649.072.64
2026-09-12CWS @ STL9.548.5111.46
2026-09-12SD @ SF8.608.0134.40
2026-09-12CIN @ MIL9.878.52212.13
2026-09-11COL @ DET8.918.080.91
2026-09-11SEA @ OAK10.279.5110.73
2026-09-11PHI @ ATL8.237.5112.77
2026-09-11CWS @ STL9.378.0100.63
2026-09-11BAL @ TOR8.558.5112.45
2026-09-11NYM @ NYY8.798.0101.21
2026-09-11KC @ BOS8.808.553.80
2026-09-11SD @ SF8.898.0123.11
2026-09-11LAA @ WSH8.538.071.53
2026-09-11HOU @ TB8.517.544.51
2026-09-11CLE @ MIN9.227.572.22
2026-09-11CIN @ MIL9.397.52010.61
2026-09-10COL @ NYY9.288.5133.72
2026-09-10PIT @ CWS8.767.526.76
2026-09-10TB @ ATL9.198.545.19
2026-09-10TEX @ SEA8.976.571.97
2026-09-10HOU @ PHI8.938.535.93
2026-09-09HOU @ PHI8.298.0189.71
2026-09-09TEX @ SEA9.668.054.66
2026-09-09CHC @ MIL8.908.0145.10
2026-09-09CLE @ BAL9.398.5144.61
2026-09-09TB @ ATL9.548.590.54
2026-09-09LAA @ BOS8.759.5101.25
2026-09-09PIT @ CWS8.968.562.96
2026-09-09NYM @ MIA8.708.52920.30
2026-09-09STL @ SF8.718.0134.29
2026-09-09MIN @ DET10.048.591.04
2026-09-09WSH @ SD9.818.5111.19
2026-09-09CIN @ LAD9.048.5155.96
2026-09-09TOR @ OAK10.279.028.27
2026-09-09COL @ NYY9.979.072.97
2026-09-09ARI @ KC8.378.571.37
2026-09-08PIT @ CWS9.418.0122.59
2026-09-08CIN @ LAD9.078.554.07
2026-09-08ARI @ KC8.499.580.49
2026-09-08TB @ ATL8.778.580.77
2026-09-08TOR @ OAK10.609.564.60
2026-09-08COL @ NYY9.308.081.30
2026-09-08HOU @ PHI8.778.5112.23
2026-09-08TEX @ SEA9.338.0155.67
2026-09-08CHC @ MIL9.077.572.07
2026-09-08STL @ SF8.588.035.58
2026-09-08NYM @ MIA9.007.5123.00
2026-09-08CLE @ BAL9.398.5144.61
2026-09-08WSH @ SD9.958.090.95
2026-09-08LAA @ BOS8.298.071.29
2026-09-08MIN @ DET9.218.554.21
2026-09-07ATL @ PHI8.488.017.48
2026-09-07ARI @ KC8.529.090.48
2026-09-07CIN @ LAD9.628.590.62

Every projection is logged before the game and graded after; losses included. The model trails the market where the table says it does. The model's side is the side its own published number implies when it is read against the market's number for the same game, worked out mechanically rather than chosen, and it is not a pick. Full filterable history renders in the live view. Information, not picks. This table is a static snapshot written into the page at generation time from the same published feed the in-browser view reads; when scripts run, the live view replaces it in place. Posted lines move.

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