Model Track Record

Model Track Record

Every projection we make is logged before the event and graded after shown beside the market, never backfilled or edited. What we published is what you see.

Read exactly how these projections are made and graded including the honest numbers.

Information, not picks. Our projections use only team, player, park and schedule data, they never see a betting line. We show them beside the market and the result so you can judge the model yourself. Nothing here is advice or a pick.

Public track record: the graded summary

Snapshot as of Sep 2, 10:12 AM ET (the feed's own stamp)

MarketLoggedGradedResult so farSince
MLB Over/Under537518model avg error 3.61 runs vs market 3.473 on 350 lined games2026-07-15
MLB Moneyline537518hit rate 0.581, Brier 0.2454 (no-skill baseline 0.25), n=5182026-07-16

Last 250 graded MLB totals projections

DateGameOur projectionMarket openingActual totalAbs error
2026-09-01ATL @ WSH9.7310.0144.27
2026-09-01OAK @ TEX9.197.5133.81
2026-09-01DET @ MIN9.488.5177.52
2026-09-01TOR @ CLE9.828.072.82
2026-09-01SD @ CIN10.289.573.28
2026-09-01MIL @ CHC9.7310.5133.27
2026-09-01NYM @ TB8.688.080.68
2026-09-01PHI @ ARI8.707.580.70
2026-09-01STL @ LAD9.339.02111.67
2026-09-01BAL @ COL11.4611.065.46
2026-09-01MIA @ KC8.999.590.01
2026-09-01CWS @ HOU9.268.563.26
2026-09-01NYY @ LAA8.358.0101.65
2026-09-01SEA @ BOS8.848.5156.16
2026-09-01SF @ PIT9.047.52515.96
2026-08-28KC @ CLE8.527.535.52
2026-08-28BAL @ OAK10.109.573.10
2026-08-28LAD @ DET8.857.535.85
2026-08-28CIN @ CHC8.958.5189.05
2026-08-28ARI @ SF8.727.5167.28
2026-08-28PIT @ STL8.877.553.87
2026-08-28COL @ ATL8.879.0101.13
2026-08-28CWS @ MIN9.238.5111.77
2026-08-28TEX @ MIL8.547.571.54
2026-08-28PHI @ LAA8.358.080.35
2026-08-28SEA @ TOR8.547.590.46
2026-08-28BOS @ NYY8.527.517.52
2026-08-28HOU @ NYM8.938.044.93
2026-08-28MIA @ WSH9.118.5111.89
2026-08-28SD @ TB8.797.5134.21
2026-08-26BOS @ MIA8.637.544.63
2026-08-26HOU @ NYY9.768.5122.24
2026-08-26CIN @ SF8.668.01910.34
2026-08-26MIN @ OAK10.5610.0110.44
2026-08-26PHI @ SEA8.707.062.70
2026-08-26CLE @ LAA8.579.071.57
2026-08-26PIT @ SD9.458.536.45
2026-08-26KC @ TOR8.888.535.88
2026-08-26TB @ DET9.888.036.88
2026-08-26COL @ WSH9.669.0144.34
2026-08-26MIL @ NYM9.248.090.24
2026-08-26TEX @ CWS8.668.0145.34
2026-08-26CHC @ ARI9.608.527.60
2026-08-26BAL @ STL9.678.0155.33
2026-08-26LAD @ ATL9.338.5111.67
2026-08-25CHC @ ARI10.068.091.06
2026-08-25LAD @ ATL9.148.572.14
2026-08-25PIT @ SD8.727.517.72
2026-08-25BAL @ STL8.738.5145.27
2026-08-25TEX @ CWS8.288.0189.72
2026-08-25MIL @ NYM9.017.554.01
2026-08-25KC @ TOR9.048.581.04
2026-08-25CLE @ LAA8.277.5145.73
2026-08-25PHI @ SEA9.478.054.47
2026-08-25COL @ WSH9.058.545.05
2026-08-25MIN @ OAK10.249.564.24
2026-08-25CIN @ SF8.878.044.87
2026-08-25TB @ DET10.057.555.05
2026-08-25BOS @ MIA8.257.5101.75
2026-08-25HOU @ NYY9.609.0166.40
2026-08-24CLE @ LAA8.407.562.40
2026-08-24COL @ WSH9.488.0166.52
2026-08-24TEX @ CWS8.818.5134.19
2026-08-24CHC @ ARI10.099.073.09
2026-08-24CIN @ SF8.457.553.45
2026-08-24TB @ DET9.107.554.10
2026-08-24MIN @ OAK10.7210.5154.28
2026-08-24BOS @ MIA8.647.562.64
2026-08-24PHI @ SEA8.836.5112.17
2026-08-24PIT @ SD8.507.553.50
2026-08-22WSH @ MIA8.627.562.62
2026-08-22CLE @ COL11.7111.074.71
2026-08-22TB @ BAL9.128.054.12
2026-08-22OAK @ HOU8.578.071.57
2026-08-22SF @ BOS8.808.553.80
2026-08-22STL @ PHI8.858.5156.15
2026-08-22PIT @ LAD9.077.572.07
2026-08-22DET @ KC9.049.045.04
2026-08-22MIN @ SD9.128.0122.88
2026-08-22ATL @ MIL9.008.054.00
2026-08-22CHC @ SEA9.588.090.58
2026-08-22TOR @ NYY8.126.571.12
2026-08-21DET @ KC8.808.071.80
2026-08-21ATL @ MIL7.536.034.53
2026-08-21TOR @ NYY8.397.544.39
2026-08-21SF @ BOS8.387.5101.62
2026-08-21OAK @ HOU9.208.045.20
2026-08-21STL @ PHI8.258.0134.75
2026-08-21WSH @ MIA8.838.053.83
2026-08-21PIT @ LAD9.058.090.05
2026-08-21MIN @ SD9.168.081.16
2026-08-21NYM @ CWS8.618.0101.39
2026-08-21CIN @ ARI9.638.090.63
2026-08-21CHC @ SEA9.288.0111.72
2026-08-21TB @ BAL8.937.580.93
2026-08-21CLE @ COL12.4110.5102.41
2026-08-21LAA @ TEX8.437.535.43
2026-08-19LAA @ HOU9.378.554.37
2026-08-19CWS @ CHC9.058.036.05
2026-08-19ATL @ MIN9.478.5100.53
2026-08-19NYY @ BAL9.089.081.08
2026-08-19TOR @ TB8.688.0134.32
2026-08-19ARI @ BOS8.838.5134.17
2026-08-19DET @ PIT8.768.071.76
2026-08-19WSH @ TEX9.427.563.42
2026-08-19SF @ CLE9.037.518.03
2026-08-19MIA @ PHI8.938.553.93
2026-08-19SD @ NYM9.428.563.42
2026-08-19LAD @ COL11.0811.5101.08
2026-08-19OAK @ KC8.558.5167.45
2026-08-19STL @ CIN8.798.590.21
2026-08-19SEA @ MIL8.057.5123.95
2026-08-18LAD @ COL11.8112.0131.19
2026-08-18MIA @ PHI8.698.0101.31
2026-08-18SF @ CLE9.528.090.52
2026-08-18TOR @ TB8.947.5156.06
2026-08-18SEA @ MIL9.658.02212.35
2026-08-18STL @ CIN9.048.536.04
2026-08-18ARI @ BOS8.758.5134.25
2026-08-18LAA @ HOU9.269.045.26
2026-08-18OAK @ KC9.3710.072.37
2026-08-18SD @ NYM9.338.572.33
2026-08-18CWS @ CHC9.039.072.03
2026-08-18NYY @ BAL9.738.545.73
2026-08-18DET @ PIT9.158.054.15
2026-08-18WSH @ TEX10.018.555.01
2026-08-18ATL @ MIN9.368.554.36
2026-08-17DET @ PIT8.968.0134.04
2026-08-17SD @ NYM8.818.535.81
2026-08-17MIA @ PHI8.648.0112.36
2026-08-17BAL @ TB8.687.5134.32
2026-08-17STL @ CIN8.829.0112.18
2026-08-17CWS @ CHC8.418.0123.59
2026-08-17LAD @ COL11.4111.0164.59
2026-08-17OAK @ KC8.729.0145.28
2026-08-17ATL @ MIN9.898.563.89
2026-08-17ARI @ BOS8.799.0123.21
2026-08-16MIA @ CIN8.649.080.64
2026-08-16CWS @ DET8.718.0123.29
2026-08-16COL @ SF8.838.02011.17
2026-08-16KC @ LAA8.509.535.50
2026-08-16TEX @ OAK10.7910.573.79
2026-08-16ARI @ ATL9.498.581.49
2026-08-16MIL @ LAD8.817.580.81
2026-08-16STL @ CHC9.799.0155.21
2026-08-16SEA @ HOU8.828.053.82
2026-08-16NYY @ TOR8.127.571.12
2026-08-16BOS @ PIT9.158.0111.85
2026-08-16WSH @ NYM9.028.572.02
2026-08-16SD @ CLE9.158.054.15
2026-08-16BAL @ TB8.387.5123.62
2026-08-16PHI @ MIN9.129.0122.88
2026-08-15ARI @ ATL9.318.5133.69
2026-08-15CWS @ DET8.378.071.37
2026-08-15KC @ LAA8.398.517.39
2026-08-15COL @ SF8.867.580.86
2026-08-15BAL @ TB8.167.571.16
2026-08-15MIL @ LAD9.647.554.64
2026-08-15SEA @ HOU9.838.5155.17
2026-08-15STL @ CHC9.129.0122.88
2026-08-15MIA @ CIN8.839.0123.17
2026-08-15PHI @ MIN8.788.0101.22
2026-08-15BOS @ PIT9.257.545.25
2026-08-15TEX @ OAK10.609.582.60
2026-08-14WSH @ NYM9.118.554.11
2026-08-14BOS @ PIT8.868.0123.14
2026-08-14STL @ CHC8.758.035.75
2026-08-14COL @ SF8.718.071.71
2026-08-14NYY @ TOR8.878.044.87
2026-08-14KC @ LAA8.399.0134.61
2026-08-14SD @ CLE8.167.5123.84
2026-08-14MIL @ LAD9.397.545.39
2026-08-14SEA @ HOU8.888.0178.12
2026-08-14MIA @ CIN8.398.017.39
2026-08-13TEX @ LAA8.198.071.19
2026-08-13PHI @ MIN8.889.080.88
2026-08-13PIT @ MIA8.618.0145.39
2026-08-13CIN @ CWS9.408.5177.60
2026-08-13CHC @ WSH9.848.572.84
2026-08-13MIL @ LAD8.848.590.16
2026-08-13BOS @ TOR8.608.071.60
2026-08-13SEA @ NYY8.788.017.78
2026-08-13CLE @ DET9.448.536.44
2026-08-12CIN @ CWS9.559.054.55
2026-08-12CLE @ DET9.238.0100.77
2026-08-12KC @ LAD9.359.563.35
2026-08-12PHI @ STL8.708.580.70
2026-08-12COL @ ARI9.939.5100.07
2026-08-12BAL @ MIN9.278.5122.73
2026-08-12BOS @ TOR8.747.5101.26
2026-08-12NYM @ ATL9.458.590.45
2026-08-12MIL @ SD9.128.072.12
2026-08-12SEA @ NYY9.598.5155.41
2026-08-11PHI @ STL9.538.027.53
2026-08-11PIT @ MIA8.297.526.29
2026-08-11SEA @ NYY8.928.053.92
2026-08-11COL @ ARI10.079.055.07
2026-08-11HOU @ SF8.628.053.62
2026-08-11CIN @ CWS8.988.090.02
2026-08-11TEX @ LAA9.159.554.15
2026-08-11TB @ OAK10.6210.0165.38
2026-08-11BOS @ TOR8.257.580.25
2026-08-11CHC @ WSH10.169.0143.84
2026-08-11MIL @ SD9.187.5133.82
2026-08-11NYM @ ATL8.998.544.99
2026-08-11KC @ LAD9.118.090.11
2026-08-11CLE @ DET8.868.5101.14
2026-08-11BAL @ MIN9.819.072.81
2026-08-10TEX @ LAA8.758.553.75
2026-08-10PHI @ STL9.459.0111.55
2026-08-10BOS @ TOR9.148.536.14
2026-08-10HOU @ SF8.808.090.20
2026-08-10MIL @ SD8.647.553.64
2026-08-10KC @ LAD8.247.5112.76
2026-08-10TB @ OAK10.1610.0165.84
2026-08-10NYM @ ATL9.708.0133.30
2026-08-10BAL @ MIN9.148.5144.86
2026-08-09CIN @ WSH10.039.582.03
2026-08-09ATL @ NYY9.528.536.52
2026-08-09CHC @ KC9.8210.0122.18
2026-08-09MIN @ MIL8.317.571.31
2026-08-09BAL @ TEX9.588.5155.42
2026-08-09DET @ SF8.507.544.50
2026-08-09CLE @ CWS9.048.081.04
2026-08-09TOR @ PHI9.298.0133.71
2026-08-09LAD @ ARI9.958.563.95
2026-08-09COL @ STL10.049.0110.96
2026-08-09LAA @ MIA8.688.5156.32
2026-08-09NYM @ PIT8.948.0123.06
2026-08-08CHC @ KC9.289.590.28
2026-08-08BAL @ TEX9.477.563.47
2026-08-08NYM @ PIT9.448.590.44
2026-08-08MIN @ MIL9.168.072.16
2026-08-08COL @ STL8.749.0145.26
2026-08-08TB @ SEA9.057.554.05
2026-08-08HOU @ SD9.048.054.04
2026-08-08OAK @ BOS9.479.0100.53
2026-08-08LAA @ MIA8.728.071.72
2026-08-08ATL @ NYY9.137.590.13
2026-08-08DET @ SF8.818.080.81
2026-08-08CLE @ CWS8.208.090.80
2026-08-08LAD @ ARI9.538.536.53
2026-08-08CIN @ WSH9.908.5100.10
2026-08-08TOR @ PHI9.3210.0122.68
2026-08-07ATL @ NYY9.018.554.01
2026-08-07TOR @ PHI9.048.590.04
2026-08-07LAA @ MIA8.659.071.65
2026-08-07CLE @ CWS9.148.5100.86
2026-08-07NYM @ PIT9.288.5100.72
2026-08-07OAK @ BOS8.889.0145.12

Every projection is logged before the game and graded after; losses included. The model trails the market where the table says it does. Full filterable history renders in the live view. Information, not picks. This table is a static snapshot written into the page at generation time from the same published feed the in-browser view reads; when scripts run, the live view replaces it in place. Posted lines move.

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