Question 1

How are projections graded?

Accepted Answer

Every projection is logged and time-stamped before the event starts, then graded after the game is final against the actual result. We compare our error to the market's error on the exact same games that had a real opening line, so the comparison is apples-to-apples. Snapshots are immutable: once logged, a projection is never backfilled or edited. What we published is what you see here.

Question 2

Why show losses?

Accepted Answer

Because an honest, checkable record is the whole point. No public model reliably out-predicts the closing betting market, and hiding the misses would make us exactly the kind of black box we exist to replace. We show every result, including the games where our projection trailed the market. The honest gap is the product.

Question 3

What is a market benchmark?

Accepted Answer

For markets where we publish no projection — the MLB run line, and NFL and UFC — the track record shows the sportsbooks' own record instead, clearly labelled as a market benchmark and not a Nebula projection.

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