The opening market lines, our independent model projection, and factual season trends — today's slate
Information, not picks. The projected total is our model's independent pre-game estimate of total runs — built only from team, pitcher, park and schedule data, never from betting lines — shown beside the market's opening number for context. It is not a bet recommendation, and we don't publish one. Run line, total and moneyline are opening lines; live prices move. The model win probability shown beside the opening moneyline is our own independent estimate — not a market price, and not a pick.
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Our totals projection has averaged within ~3.5 runs of final scores since 2021; the market's opening line averages ~3.46 on the same games. Our model win probabilities are well-calibrated but do not beat the market — the sportsbook's price is modestly sharper. We publish both because that's the honest state of the art: what we offer is an independent second opinion, and a public track record you can check.
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