MLB · Opening Lines & Projections

MLB Opening Lines & Model Projections

The opening market lines, where they sit now, our independent model projection, and factual season trends, today's slate

Information, not picks. The projected total is our model's independent pre-game estimate of total runs, built only from team, pitcher, park and schedule data, never from betting lines shown beside the market's opening number for context. It is not a bet recommendation, and we don't publish one. Run line, total and moneyline are opening lines; live prices move. The model win probability shown beside the opening moneyline is our own independent estimate, not a market price, and not a pick. Where we have captured a game more than once, the card also shows what those numbers are now beside what they were at our first capture. A move is two prices at two times: we publish what changed, never a reading of why it changed.
New See every book's price on these games, side by side Odds comparison

MLB opening lines and model projections, 2026-08-28

Snapshot as of Aug 28, 10:12 AM ET (the feed's own stamp)

Matchup (probables)Opening totalOpening run lineOpening ML (away / home)Model projected totalModel win % (away / home)
San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay RaysO/U 7.5TB -1.5+118 / -1288.849% / 51%
Miami Marlins @ Washington NationalsO/U 8.5MIA -1.5-150 / +1379.150% / 50%
Houston Astros @ New York MetsO/U 8.0HOU -1.5-124 / +1128.947% / 53%
Boston Red Sox @ New York YankeesO/U 7.5NYY -1.5+143 / -1588.547% / 53%
Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue JaysO/U 7.5TOR -1.5+158 / -1758.548% / 52%
Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles AngelsO/U 8.0PHI -1.5-144 / +1188.351% / 49%
Texas Rangers @ Milwaukee BrewersO/U 7.5MIL -1.5+158 / -1748.545% / 55%
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota TwinsO/U 8.5CWS -1.5+104 / -1149.247% / 53%
Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta BravesO/U 9.0ATL -1.5+200 / -2238.940% / 60%
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis CardinalsO/U 7.5PIT -1.5-112 / +1008.948% / 52%
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco GiantsO/U 7.5ARI -1.5-130 / +1088.750% / 50%
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago CubsO/U 8.5CHC -1.5+168 / -1848.945% / 55%
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit TigersO/U 7.5LAD -1.5-216 / +1948.851% / 49%
Baltimore Orioles @ AthleticsO/U 9.5BAL -1.5-149 / +12310.151% / 49%
Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland GuardiansO/U 7.5CLE -1.5+118 / -1308.549% / 51%

Opening to now, from our own captures

GameStart (ET)ML open to now (away / home)Total open to nowCaptures
Padres @ Rays08/28 07:11 PM ET+118 to +112 / -128 to -1237.5 to 7.59
Astros @ Mets08/28 07:11 PM ET-124 to -106 / +112 to -1028.0 to 7.59
Royals @ Guardians08/28 07:11 PM ET+118 to +120 / -130 to -1307.5 to 7.59
Red Sox @ Yankees08/28 07:16 PM ET+143 to +138 / -158 to -1527.5 to 7.09
Mariners @ Blue Jays08/28 07:16 PM ET+158 to +130 / -175 to -1417.5 to 7.09
Rockies @ Braves08/28 07:16 PM ET+200 to +198 / -223 to -2169.0 to 9.09
Rangers @ Brewers08/28 07:41 PM ET+158 to +185 / -174 to -2057.5 to 7.59
White Sox @ Twins08/28 08:11 PM ET+104 to +116 / -114 to -1268.5 to 8.59
Pirates @ Cardinals08/28 08:16 PM ET-112 to -113 / +100 to +1047.5 to 7.59
Phillies @ Angels08/28 09:39 PM ET-144 to -116 / +118 to +1078.0 to 7.59
Orioles @ Athletics08/28 09:41 PM ET-149 to -108 / +123 to -1049.5 to 9.59
D-backs @ Giants08/28 10:16 PM ET-130 to -114 / +108 to +1057.5 to 8.09
Dodgers @ Tigers08/29 01:11 PM ET-185 to -185 / +148 to +1507.5 to 7.55
White Sox @ Twins08/29 02:11 PM ET-102 to -102 / -120 to -1209.0 to 9.04
Reds @ Cubs08/29 02:21 PM ET+154 to +154 / -190 to -1908.5 to 8.55
Marlins @ Nationals08/29 04:06 PM ET-110 to -110 / -112 to -1128.0 to 8.05
Padres @ Rays08/29 04:11 PM ET+110 to +110 / -135 to -1357.0 to 7.55
Royals @ Guardians08/29 04:11 PM ET+128 to +128 / -160 to -1608.0 to 8.05
Rockies @ Braves08/29 04:11 PM ET+184 to +180 / -225 to -2259.0 to 9.05
Rangers @ Brewers08/29 07:16 PM ET+136 to +136 / -170 to -1707.5 to 7.55
Phillies @ Angels08/29 10:08 PM ET-250 to -250 / +190 to +1908.0 to 8.05

15 games on the 2026-08-28 slate. Run line, total and moneyline are the market's opening numbers; the projected total and win probability are our model's independent estimates, shown beside them for context. A move is two prices at two capture times; we publish what changed, never a reading of why it changed. Information, not picks. This table is a static snapshot written into the page at generation time from the same published feed the in-browser view reads; when scripts run, the live view replaces it in place. Posted lines move.

Our totals projection has averaged within ~3.5 runs of final scores since 2021; the market's opening line averages ~3.46 on the same games. Our model win probabilities are well-calibrated but do not beat the market, the sportsbook's price is modestly sharper. We publish both because that's the honest state of the art: what we offer is an independent second opinion, and a public track record you can check.

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