Nebula Insights is an independent, free sports analytics site. We build our own statistical models, publish their numbers beside the sportsbooks' numbers, and grade every published projection in public afterwards — including the ones we get wrong. We sell no selections, take no sportsbook money, and publish no bet recommendations of any kind.
Who runs Nebula Insights
Nebula Insights is an independently operated, self-funded project. It is not owned by, sponsored by, or commercially affiliated with any sportsbook, affiliate network, tipster service or media group, and it carries no sportsbook advertising or affiliate links. Nobody pays us to feature a book, a market or an outcome, and we earn nothing whether a reader wins or loses.
The site is currently in open beta and free to use. All modelling, data engineering and writing is done in-house; there is no outsourced or syndicated content, and no page on this site is auto-generated from someone else's feed. Editorial responsibility for everything published sits with Nebula Insights, contactable at support@nebulainsights.net.
What we publish
- Model projections, shown beside the market. For MLB we publish a projected total and a calibrated home-win probability. Both are placed next to the sportsbook's own number as information. We never convert the difference between the two into a suggested wager, a direction, or a confidence rating.
- Market lines and factual context, where we have no model worth publishing. For the MLB run line, NFL, college football and UFC we publish the books' prices plus public, checkable context — records, rest, reach, injuries, form. Our own testing found no reliable signal to add in those markets, so we add none. Showing nothing is better than dressing up noise.
- A public, immutable track record. Every projection is written down and time-stamped before the event, then graded after it against the real result and against the market on the same games. See the live track record.
- Measured, cited research. Our guides and stat pages answer specific questions from our own archive — how often a favourite covers, how often a total goes over, how often a line moves — and every number on them names the sample and window it came from.
- Free calculators. Five tools for odds conversion, parlay pricing, expected value, hedging and arbitrage arithmetic.
Where the data comes from
Prices. Sportsbook odds are collected from major regulated US books through a commercial odds feed and stored as we receive them. We keep every snapshot: the archive is what makes it possible to answer questions about how markets actually behaved rather than how they feel in hindsight. As of July 2026 that archive held over 78 million individual recorded prices across MLB, NFL, college football, NBA, NHL, college basketball, soccer and MMA.
Results and statistics. Scores, schedules, rosters, injuries and player logs
come from public league and public-domain sources — the MLB Stats API, ESPN's public
endpoints, the open nflverse datasets and equivalents per sport. We do not scrape
sources that prohibit it, and we do not republish third-party paid data.
What the models see. Our models are trained on team, player, park and schedule data only. They never receive a betting line as an input, which is the entire point: an estimate that has already seen the market cannot be an independent check on it.
On MLB totals our projection has missed final scores by an average of 3.52 runs since 2021; the market's opening line missed by 3.46 on the same 12,351 lined games. We trail the market by about 0.06 runs a game, and we publish that gap rather than hide it. Full evaluation, including the moneyline and the markets where we found nothing: methodology and trust centre.
How often each page updates
Everything on the site is produced by scheduled jobs, not by hand. Times are US Eastern.
| What | Refresh |
|---|---|
| Odds boards (MLB, UFC, NFL, CFB, NBA, NHL, NCAAB, soccer) | 3× daily, in season |
| MLB model projections | Daily, ~10:10 AM, before first pitch |
| MLB live scores on the board | Every 10 minutes while games run |
| Pre-game snapshot committed to the public ledger | Daily, 10:50 AM |
| Team pages (62 MLB + NFL) | Daily, 6:20 AM |
| Weekly insight reports | Mondays (MLB), Wednesdays (NFL, in season) |
| UFC card and results grading | Cards Mondays; results Sundays |
| Guides and stat pages | Re-measured and re-stamped, never hand-edited |
Out-of-season sports pause rather than show stale prices: a board that has no fresh feed says so instead of displaying an old one.
Editorial standards
These are the rules the site is built to, and they are enforced in code rather than left to good intentions.
- Projections, not picks. No selections, no leaning language, no suggested stakes, no "best bet" framing, anywhere, ever. Automated checks fail the build if that vocabulary appears in a page without an explicit negation around it.
- Every number names its source and its sample. A figure on this site is produced by a committed, re-runnable script over our own archive and is published with the window and sample size it was measured on. Refreshing a page means re-running the measurement, not editing the text.
- Snapshots are immutable. A logged projection is never backfilled, re-scored or quietly removed. If it was wrong, the record stays wrong. The daily pre-game snapshot is also committed to a public Git repository so the timestamp does not depend on trusting us.
- We publish where we lose. Our headline model trails the market, and that number appears on the methodology page, in the track record and above. A model that only showed its wins would tell you nothing.
- No number without a market to check it against. Where our testing found no reliable signal, we publish no model output for that market at all.
- Corrections are made in the open. If we publish something wrong, we fix the page and say what changed. Reports to support@nebulainsights.net are read.
What Nebula Insights is not
- Not picks, leans, plays or bet recommendations — we publish none of these
- Not a sportsbook, and not a place to place a wager
- Not an affiliate: there are no sportsbook referral links and no commission on deposits
- Not a promise of profit, and not a guaranteed outcome of any kind
- Not financial advice, betting advice or a substitute for your own judgement
Contact
Questions, data corrections, press enquiries and takedown requests: support@nebulainsights.net. We also post on X as @Nebula_Insights. Legal terms are in the terms of use; data handling is in the privacy policy.
Next steps
Frequently asked questions
Who owns Nebula Insights?
It is an independently operated, self-funded project with no sportsbook, affiliate-network or media-group ownership, sponsorship or commercial relationship. Editorial control sits entirely with Nebula Insights.
Do you sell picks or run a tipster service?
No. There are no picks, selections, leans or bet recommendations anywhere on the site, nothing is for sale, and there is no paid tier that unlocks a recommendation. We publish an independent number beside the market's number and a public record of how that number performed.
How do you make money?
At present we do not. The site is in free open beta, self-funded, and carries no sportsbook affiliate links or advertising. If that ever changes it will be stated on this page before it changes, and it will never take the form of paid selections.
Is your model better than the sportsbooks?
No, and we do not claim it is. On MLB totals we trail the market's opening line by about 0.06 runs a game across 12,351 lined games. What we offer is an independent second opinion built without ever seeing a betting line, plus a checkable record of exactly how far off it has been.
Can I cite or quote your numbers?
Yes, with attribution to Nebula Insights and a link to the page the figure came from. Please carry the sample size and window with the number — every figure we publish is welded to both, and a frequency quoted without them is a different claim from the one we made.
Nebula Insights publishes analytics and historical measurement for informational purposes only. Nothing on this site is betting advice, financial advice, a recommendation to wager, or a promise of any outcome. Past frequencies describe what already happened and are not forecasts. 18+ only; if gambling is affecting your life, help is available in the US at 1-800-GAMBLER.