MLB · Pitcher Strikeout Projections

MLB Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Our model's independent pre-game strikeout projection for today's probable starting pitchers — shown beside the market's opening strikeout line.

Projections, not recommendations. Each number is our model's independent pre-game estimate of a starting pitcher's strikeouts, shown beside the market's opening strikeout line for context. We do not say a pitcher will go over or under that line, and we publish no recommendation or directional call. Our model improves on naive recent-form averaging but trails the market — details in the methodology note below.
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Projections refresh once a day, after the morning probable-starter slate settles (~10:30 ET). Our projection is the model's pre-game strikeout estimate; Market line is the consensus opening strikeout total across the sportsbooks that posted one, with the book count noted. A scratched or DNP probable is graded VOID on our track record — never counted as a 0.

How the projection is made

For each probable starter the model reads the pitcher's recent strikeout form and workload, the opponent lineup's strikeout tendency, plate-discipline signals (swinging-strike / called-strike rates), and prior-season park factors — producing one independent pre-game strikeout number. In back-testing it improves on naive recent-form averaging, yet still trails the market's opening line by about 0.047 strikeouts (mean absolute error). That makes it an honest analytics projection to read alongside the market number — never a recommendation, a directional call, or wagering advice. See the full method and the running, immutable scorecard on the Methodology and Track record pages.

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