How Often an MLB Prop Price Beats Fair Value

Across 4 archived captures of our MLB price board in the last 7 days, 16 of 1172 player prop prices sat at or above the fair value the market itself implies. On the 59 players who have a page here, the figure is 1 of 234. Most prices never reach fair, and this page counts how rarely.

Market arithmetic over posted prices, not a model output and not a pick. The honest headline is how rarely a price clears fair.

1 of 234prop prices on our covered players cleared the fair value the market itself implies4 board captures · last 7 days · 16 of 1172 across every player prop archived

How often a prop price beats fair value

Read this first

Almost no price clears fair value, and that is the finding rather than a disappointment. Fair value is what the price would be with the sportsbook margin removed, so a price at or above it means one book is posting a number the rest of the market disagrees with. Across every player prop we archived in this window, 16 of 1172 prices reached it.

The table counts, for each player who has a page here, how many board captures he appeared on, how many prop prices were posted on him, and how many of those prices sat at or above the market's own fair value. It also carries the best and the median gap, because a single outlier price and a book that prices well are different things and the median is the one that tells you which.

1 of the 59 listed players had at least one price reach fair in this window.

The price board was paused when this page was rebuilt: its last run stamp was 51.0 hours old and its last market capture 51.0 hours old, against a 24 hour limit. Today's board was not archived and is not counted below.

#	Player	Team	Boards	Prop prices	At or above fair	Best vs fair	Median vs fair
1	Hunter Brown	HOU	1	2	1	+0.52%	-1.84%
2	Yandy Díaz	TB	3	6	0	-0.21%	-3.25%
3	Matt Olson	ATL	3	6	0	-0.23%	-4.81%
4	William Contreras	MIL	2	4	0	-0.37%	-2.38%
5	Juan Soto	NYM	2	4	0	-0.42%	-3.16%
6	Brandon Nimmo	TEX	3	8	0	-0.98%	-2.71%
7	Nico Hoerner	CHC	2	4	0	-1.00%	-5.10%
8	Ketel Marte	ARI	3	6	0	-1.01%	-4.83%
9	Luis Arraez	PHI	1	2	0	-1.04%	-3.31%
10	Teoscar Hernández	LAD	3	6	0	-1.08%	-5.76%
11	Seiya Suzuki	CHC	2	4	0	-1.36%	-3.93%
12	Brady Singer	CIN	1	2	0	-1.46%	-2.49%
13	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	TOR	2	4	0	-1.51%	-5.03%
14	Joe Ryan	MIN	1	2	0	-2.12%	-3.03%
15	Trea Turner	PHI	2	4	0	-2.12%	-3.68%
16	Randy Arozarena	SEA	2	4	0	-2.20%	-4.15%
17	Ranger Suarez	BOS	1	2	0	-2.21%	-2.80%
18	Christian Walker	HOU	3	6	0	-2.32%	-4.72%
19	Tanner Bibee	CLE	1	2	0	-2.33%	-2.52%
20	Steven Kwan	CLE	3	6	0	-2.49%	-4.43%
21	José Ramírez	CLE	3	6	0	-2.49%	-4.78%
22	Nathan Eovaldi	TEX	1	2	0	-2.71%	-4.02%
23	Alec Bohm	PHI	3	6	0	-2.80%	-3.64%
24	Cristopher Sánchez	PHI	1	2	0	-2.98%	-4.26%
25	Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	4	8	0	-3.01%	-5.31%
26	Manny Machado	SD	1	4	0	-3.06%	-4.95%
27	Brice Turang	MIL	2	4	0	-3.16%	-3.88%
28	Dansby Swanson	CHC	2	4	0	-3.18%	-5.23%
29	Cal Raleigh	SEA	2	4	0	-3.22%	-5.94%
30	Corbin Carroll	ARI	3	8	0	-3.25%	-5.73%
31	Bryson Stott	PHI	1	2	0	-3.25%	-4.62%
32	Bryan Woo	SEA	1	2	0	-3.32%	-4.49%
33	Jose Altuve	HOU	3	6	0	-3.33%	-4.70%
34	Freddy Peralta	TB	1	2	0	-3.38%	-4.46%
35	Bobby Witt Jr.	KC	3	6	0	-3.39%	-5.32%
36	Elly De La Cruz	CIN	3	6	0	-3.39%	-5.27%
37	Bryce Miller	SEA	1	2	0	-3.57%	-4.13%
38	Bryce Harper	PHI	3	6	0	-3.58%	-4.43%
39	George Springer	TOR	2	4	0	-3.72%	-4.22%
40	Salvador Perez	KC	3	6	0	-3.72%	-5.78%

59 players with a page here appeared on the 4 board captures archived in the last 7 days, carrying 234 prop prices between them. A negative number is the normal case and is what the sportsbook keeps.

Capture by capture

The same question asked of each archived board rather than of the window as a whole, so a single unusual evening cannot hide inside an average. Every figure in this table is one the board feed published about itself at the moment it was captured.

Board	Games	Books	All sides	At or above fair	Median vs fair	Prop sides	Prop median
2026-09-28 01:00 PM ET	4	11	42	2	-2.46%	18	-4.38%
2026-09-26 01:00 PM ET	12	11	440	16	-4.63%	356	-4.98%
2026-09-25 01:00 PM ET	17	11	544	13	-4.57%	440	-5.05%
2026-09-24 01:00 PM ET	11	11	428	6	-4.63%	358	-4.98%

One row per archived board capture, newest first. These are the board feed's own summary figures over every side it published that evening, game markets included, so they are wider than the player table above.

How this was measured

Fair value. Each book's own two prices on the same number, with the margin removed, then the median across every book quoting that number. A side needs at least four such books before it carries a fair value at all. This is market arithmetic over posted prices: no model number touches it, and it says nothing about who wins a game.
The comparison. The best available price on a side, in decimal, multiplied by that consensus fair probability, minus one. Negative means the price pays less than the market says the side is worth, which is the normal case and is the sportsbook's margin.
Same number only. Every price is compared against quotes at its own posted number. Over 1.5 and over 2.5 are different bets and are never pooled.
The window. One board capture per day, archived by this job. This page covers 4 captures from 2026-09-24 01:00 PM ET to 2026-09-28 01:00 PM ET. On the first days of a window that number is small, and it is printed rather than smoothed over.
Opening prices. Player prop prices are captured once, on the morning of the game, and are not refreshed afterwards. A comparison against a price nobody has moved since breakfast has to say so, so every row here rests on opening numbers rather than on the price a book is showing right now.
Who is listed. Only players who have a page on this site, so every name is a link to the record behind it. The headline counts above cover the WHOLE board, including the 268 other players priced in this window who have no page here yet.
Not a pick. A price above fair is a statement about one sportsbook against the others. It is not a prediction, not a recommendation and not an edge claim.

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Next steps

All listsEvery list we publishThe hub, with the headline number from each table. MLBWhich MLB Pitchers Beat Their Strikeout Line Most OftenA fact table, not a projection. MLBMLB Batters Who Out-Hit Their Total-Bases LineA fact table, not a projection. NFLThe Most-Propped NFL Players: Lined Games and Market BreadthCounted over our own odds archive.

Frequently asked questions

What is fair value?

The price with the sportsbook margin removed. Take one book's two prices on the same number, strip the margin out of the pair, and take the median of that across every book quoting the number. A side needs at least four such books before it carries a fair value here.

Why do almost no prices reach fair value?

Because the gap between a posted price and fair value IS the sportsbook's margin, and the book sets it. A price at or above fair only happens when one book disagrees with the rest of the market, which is uncommon and usually small.

What does a price above fair actually tell you?

That one sportsbook is posting a number the rest of the market disagrees with, on that side, at that moment. It says nothing about the outcome of the game, and nothing here is a pick, a selection or a recommended wager.

How far back does this go?

This job archives one board capture per day. The page prints how many captures it is reporting over and the dates they span, so a short window is visible rather than implied.

Every figure on this page is a historical measurement of what already happened, produced by a committed, re-runnable script over our own odds archive. Past frequencies are not forecasts and are not betting advice: Nebula Insights publishes no picks, no selections and no recommended wagers. You must be of legal gambling age in your jurisdiction.