Starting pitcher, KC. Every number below comes from our own game archive, pitch-tracking table and prop-line archive, with the window and sample size printed beside it.
Percentile among 565 pitchers with 8+ tracked starts, 2026 season through 2026-09-05 (our pitch-tracking window) · higher is better on every bar
Whiff rate 16.6%9
CSW rate 25.4%24
xwOBA against 0.38655
Hard-hit against 27.5%36
Strikeouts vs the prop line
Last 12 starts · bar = strikeouts, dash = that morning's opening line (median of quoting books, earliest capture per book) · teal over, red under, grey unlined
Conditioned record vs the line
Overs and unders against the opening strikeout line, split by the situations that move strikeout props · 2026 lined starts only
Split
O–U
Avg K
Avg line
n
All lined starts
12–14
4.27
4.54
26
vs top-10 strikeout-prone teams
4–7
4.55
4.86
11
vs bottom-10 strikeout-prone teams
5–4
3.78
4.17
9
Home
7–7
4.07
4.5
14
Away
5–7
4.5
4.58
12
Last 5
2–3
3.6
4.1
5
Strikeout-prone = the opponent's strikeouts per game rank across the 2026 season, our archive. Counts of what happened, not predictions.
Seth Lugo prop prices compared with fair value
Best available price against the market's own fair value, live from our MLB board
Every strikeout prop posted on Seth Lugo for an upcoming game where at least four books quote both sides of the same number, beside the fair value those books imply once each one's margin is removed. Prop prices are captured on the morning of the game and are not refreshed afterwards.
Live prop prices for Seth Lugo load here from our MLB board. If nothing appears, no book has a two sided prop posted on him for an upcoming game, so there is no fair value to compare a price against. The full price vs fair board carries every player priced today.
Fair value is what the price would be with the sportsbook margin removed: each book's own two prices on the same number, margin taken out, then the median across every book quoting that number. A side needs at least four such books before it carries a fair value here. This is market arithmetic, not a projection of ours and not a pick. What fair value means and the full MLB price vs fair board.
Start log
Last 12 starts · pitch-tracking columns blank where the game postdates our tracking window
Date
Opp
IP
K
K line
BB
ER
Whiff
xwOBA
2026-09-05
vs TOR
5.0
1
3.5
2
3
12%
0.270
2026-08-30
at CLE
3.2
2
2
9
11%
0.396
2026-08-25
at TOR
5.0
5
3.5
1
1
26%
0.350
2026-08-19
vs OAK
6.0
3
4.5
0
5
16%
0.359
2026-08-14
at LAA
4.2
4
4.5
0
5
16%
0.371
2026-08-08
vs CHC
6.0
5
4.5
1
3
13%
0.330
2026-08-02
at COL
5.0
3
4.5
5
5
21%
0.296
2026-07-28
at MIN
6.0
2
4.5
2
1
9%
0.307
2026-07-22
vs SF
7.0
5
4.5
2
3
21%
0.309
2026-07-17
vs SD
6.0
3
2
1
15%
0.356
2026-07-12
at BAL
4.0
6
4.5
2
2
29%
0.531
2026-07-07
at NYM
4.1
4
4.5
2
6
16%
0.458
Ballpark
K per start, home
4.0
15 starts
K per start, away
4.3
13 starts
Park K factor
91.00
2025 season, home park
Where these numbers come from
Game logs and season line. Our own game archive, updated daily from the official league feed.
Advanced metrics. Our pitch-tracking table, 2026 season through 2026-09-05; percentiles computed against all qualified starters in the same window. Blank cells mean the game postdates the window, and we leave them blank rather than estimate.
Prop lines. Our odds archive: each book's earliest recorded capture that morning, median across quoting books. Openers, never closers.
Information, not betting advice. This page reports what happened, with windows and sample sizes attached. Small samples are labeled with their n so you can weigh them accordingly. No picks, no recommendations.
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