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Merrill Kelly

Starting pitcher, AZ. Every number below comes from our own game archive, pitch-tracking table and prop-line archive, with the window and sample size printed beside it.

Data as of 2026-08-15 · team report
2026 starts
21
116.9 innings
ERA
5.08
Strikeouts
79
6.1 per 9
Walks
51

Advanced profile

Percentile among 527 pitchers with 8+ tracked starts, 2026 season through 2026-08-12 (our pitch-tracking window) · higher is better on every bar
Whiff rate
21.0%
36
CSW rate
23.8%
9
xwOBA against
0.432
42
Hard-hit against
30.8%
20

Strikeouts vs the prop line

Last 12 starts · bar = strikeouts, dash = that morning's opening line (median of quoting books, earliest capture per book) · teal over, red under, grey unlined
01234567vs WSH06-05at MIA06-11vs LAA06-16at STL06-22vs MIL07-04at SD07-09vs STL07-17vs OAK07-22at PIT07-27at CLE08-02vs LAD08-07vs COL08-12

Conditioned record vs the line

Overs–unders against the opening strikeout line, split by the situations that move strikeout props · 2026 lined starts only
SplitO–UAvg KAvg linen
All lined starts8–123.84.120
vs top-10 strikeout-prone teams3–24.64.15
vs bottom-10 strikeout-prone teams2–53.433.937
Home4–64.14.110
Away4–63.54.110
Last 53–24.03.95

Strikeout-prone = the opponent's strikeouts per game rank across the 2026 season, our archive. Counts of what happened, not predictions.

Start log

Last 12 starts · pitch-tracking columns blank where the game postdates our tracking window
DateOppIPKK lineBBERWhiffxwOBA
2026-08-12vs COL5.024.53614%0.492
2026-08-07vs LAD5.243.54127%0.225
2026-08-02at CLE5.053.54525%0.472
2026-07-27at PIT5.264.51021%0.431
2026-07-22vs OAK5.033.51215%0.318
2026-07-17vs STL5.033.52119%0.454
2026-07-09at SD7.063.53131%0.326
2026-07-04vs MIL5.063.52227%0.620
2026-06-22at STL6.023.53312%0.320
2026-06-16vs LAA5.144.51616%0.514
2026-06-11at MIA6.014.5226%0.244
2026-06-05vs WSH5.044.53725%0.535

Ballpark

K per start, home
4.1
10 starts
K per start, away
3.5
11 starts

Where these numbers come from

Information, not betting advice. This page reports what happened, with windows and sample sizes attached. Small samples are labeled with their n so you can weigh them accordingly. No picks, no recommendations.

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