Merrill Kelly

Starting pitcher, AZ. Every number below comes from our own game archive, pitch-tracking table and prop-line archive, with the window and sample size printed beside it.

Data as of 2026-09-07 · team report

2026 starts

139.1 innings

ERA

5.05

Strikeouts

6.2 per 9

Walks

Advanced profile

Percentile among 565 pitchers with 8+ tracked starts, 2026 season through 2026-09-05 (our pitch-tracking window) · higher is better on every bar

Whiff rate
20.9%36

CSW rate
23.6%8

xwOBA against
0.41945

Hard-hit against
28.9%27

Strikeouts vs the prop line

Last 12 starts · bar = strikeouts, dash = that morning's opening line (median of quoting books, earliest capture per book) · teal over, red under, grey unlined

Conditioned record vs the line

Overs and unders against the opening strikeout line, split by the situations that move strikeout props · 2026 lined starts only

Split	O–U	Avg K	Avg line	n
All lined starts	9–14	3.74	4.07	23
vs top-10 strikeout-prone teams	2–5	3.57	4.36	7
vs bottom-10 strikeout-prone teams	2–5	3.43	3.79	7
Home	5–6	4.09	4.05	11
Away	4–8	3.42	4.08	12
Last 5	2–3	3.2	3.9	5

Strikeout-prone = the opponent's strikeouts per game rank across the 2026 season, our archive. Counts of what happened, not predictions.

Merrill Kelly prop prices compared with fair value

Best available price against the market's own fair value, live from our MLB board

Every strikeout prop posted on Merrill Kelly for an upcoming game where at least four books quote both sides of the same number, beside the fair value those books imply once each one's margin is removed. Prop prices are captured on the morning of the game and are not refreshed afterwards.

Live prop prices for Merrill Kelly load here from our MLB board. If nothing appears, no book has a two sided prop posted on him for an upcoming game, so there is no fair value to compare a price against. The full price vs fair board carries every player priced today.

Fair value is what the price would be with the sportsbook margin removed: each book's own two prices on the same number, margin taken out, then the median across every book quoting that number. A side needs at least four such books before it carries a fair value here. This is market arithmetic, not a projection of ours and not a pick. What fair value means and the full MLB price vs fair board.

Start log

Last 12 starts · pitch-tracking columns blank where the game postdates our tracking window

Date	Opp	IP	K	K line	BB	ER	Whiff	xwOBA
2026-09-04	at HOU	6.0	4	4.5	0	3	16%	0.315
2026-08-29	at SF	7.0	7		4	0	24%	0.242
2026-08-24	vs CHC	5.2	4	3.5	3	3	24%	0.391
2026-08-18	at BOS	4.0	2	3.5	4	6	16%	0.465
2026-08-12	vs COL	5.0	2	4.5	3	6	14%	0.492
2026-08-07	vs LAD	5.2	4	3.5	4	1	27%	0.225
2026-08-02	at CLE	5.0	5	3.5	4	5	25%	0.472
2026-07-27	at PIT	5.2	6	4.5	1	0	21%	0.431
2026-07-22	vs OAK	5.0	3	3.5	1	2	15%	0.318
2026-07-17	vs STL	5.0	3	3.5	2	1	19%	0.454
2026-07-09	at SD	7.0	6	3.5	3	1	31%	0.326
2026-07-04	vs MIL	5.0	6	3.5	2	2	27%	0.620

Ballpark

K per start, home

4.1

11 starts

K per start, away

3.6

14 starts

Where these numbers come from

Game logs and season line. Our own game archive, updated daily from the official league feed.
Advanced metrics. Our pitch-tracking table, 2026 season through 2026-09-05; percentiles computed against all qualified starters in the same window. Blank cells mean the game postdates the window, and we leave them blank rather than estimate.
Prop lines. Our odds archive: each book's earliest recorded capture that morning, median across quoting books. Openers, never closers.

Information, not betting advice. This page reports what happened, with windows and sample sizes attached. Small samples are labeled with their n so you can weigh them accordingly. No picks, no recommendations.

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