Home / Players / MLB / Aaron Nola
MLB · Player analytics

Aaron Nola

Starting pitcher, PHI. Every number below comes from our own game archive, pitch-tracking table and prop-line archive, with the window and sample size printed beside it.

Data as of 2026-08-15 · team report
2026 starts
25
126.5 innings
ERA
5.48
Strikeouts
138
9.8 per 9
Walks
46

Advanced profile

Percentile among 527 pitchers with 8+ tracked starts, 2026 season through 2026-08-12 (our pitch-tracking window) · higher is better on every bar
Whiff rate
25.1%
69
CSW rate
28.9%
71
xwOBA against
0.393
52
Hard-hit against
26.9%
39

Strikeouts vs the prop line

Last 12 starts · bar = strikeouts, dash = that morning's opening line (median of quoting books, earliest capture per book) · teal over, red under, grey unlined
0246810at MIL06-13vs NYM06-18at WSH06-24vs PIT06-29at KC07-05at DET07-10vs NYM07-16vs LAD07-22at MIA07-28vs WSH08-03vs TOR08-08at MIN08-13

Conditioned record vs the line

Overs–unders against the opening strikeout line, split by the situations that move strikeout props · 2026 lined starts only
SplitO–UAvg KAvg linen
All lined starts11–145.525.3425
vs top-10 strikeout-prone teams1–64.865.57
vs bottom-10 strikeout-prone teams3–55.55.258
Home5–75.585.4212
Away6–75.465.2713
Last 52–36.05.35

Strikeout-prone = the opponent's strikeouts per game rank across the 2026 season, our archive. Counts of what happened, not predictions.

Start log

Last 12 starts · pitch-tracking columns blank where the game postdates our tracking window
DateOppIPKK lineBBERWhiffxwOBA
2026-08-13at MIN5.095.531
2026-08-08vs TOR5.084.52233%0.367
2026-08-03vs WSH6.055.52323%0.349
2026-07-28at MIA5.245.53118%0.371
2026-07-22vs LAD5.145.51519%0.475
2026-07-16vs NYM6.065.54333%0.319
2026-07-10at DET5.085.52234%0.458
2026-07-05at KC7.074.50335%0.276
2026-06-29vs PIT4.155.52738%0.507
2026-06-24at WSH5.054.522
2026-06-18vs NYM5.065.51221%0.301
2026-06-13at MIL4.234.5238%0.354

Ballpark

K per start, home
5.6
12 starts
K per start, away
5.5
13 starts
Park K factor
107.00
2025 season, home park

Where these numbers come from

Information, not betting advice. This page reports what happened, with windows and sample sizes attached. Small samples are labeled with their n so you can weigh them accordingly. No picks, no recommendations.

Get the weekly projections recap

How our projections did against the market — one email a week. No picks, no spam, unsubscribe anytime.

We store only your email to send the recap. Analytics, not picks — nothing here is betting advice.

Get the weekly projections recap

How our projections did against the market — one email a week. No picks, no spam, unsubscribe anytime.

We store only your email to send the recap. Analytics, not picks — nothing here is betting advice.