Starting pitcher, PHI. Every number below comes from our own game archive, pitch-tracking table and prop-line archive, with the window and sample size printed beside it.
| Split | O–U | Avg K | Avg line | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All lined starts | 13–15 | 5.61 | 5.32 | 28 |
| vs top-10 strikeout-prone teams | 3–5 | 5.5 | 5.62 | 8 |
| vs bottom-10 strikeout-prone teams | 3–3 | 5.83 | 5.0 | 6 |
| Home | 6–7 | 5.77 | 5.42 | 13 |
| Away | 7–8 | 5.47 | 5.23 | 15 |
| Last 5 | 4–1 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 5 |
Strikeout-prone = the opponent's strikeouts per game rank across the 2026 season, our archive. Counts of what happened, not predictions.
From the official probable-starter feed; probables can change. Information, never a recommendation.
Every strikeout prop posted on Aaron Nola for an upcoming game where at least four books quote both sides of the same number, beside the fair value those books imply once each one's margin is removed. Prop prices are captured on the morning of the game and are not refreshed afterwards.
Fair value is what the price would be with the sportsbook margin removed: each book's own two prices on the same number, margin taken out, then the median across every book quoting that number. A side needs at least four such books before it carries a fair value here. This is market arithmetic, not a projection of ours and not a pick. What fair value means and the full MLB price vs fair board.
| Date | Opp | IP | K | K line | BB | ER | Whiff | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | at AZ | 5.0 | 4 | 4.5 | 2 | 1 | 19% | 0.222 |
| 2026-08-25 | at SEA | 6.0 | 7 | 5.5 | 3 | 2 | 32% | 0.396 |
| 2026-08-19 | vs MIA | 7.0 | 8 | 5.5 | 0 | 1 | 33% | 0.375 |
| 2026-08-13 | at MIN | 5.0 | 9 | 5.5 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 0.450 |
| 2026-08-08 | vs TOR | 5.0 | 8 | 4.5 | 2 | 2 | 33% | 0.367 |
| 2026-08-03 | vs WSH | 6.0 | 5 | 5.5 | 2 | 3 | 23% | 0.349 |
| 2026-07-28 | at MIA | 5.2 | 4 | 5.5 | 3 | 1 | 18% | 0.371 |
| 2026-07-22 | vs LAD | 5.1 | 4 | 5.5 | 1 | 5 | 19% | 0.475 |
| 2026-07-16 | vs NYM | 6.0 | 6 | 5.5 | 4 | 3 | 33% | 0.319 |
| 2026-07-10 | at DET | 5.0 | 8 | 5.5 | 2 | 2 | 34% | 0.458 |
| 2026-07-05 | at KC | 7.0 | 7 | 4.5 | 0 | 3 | 35% | 0.276 |
| 2026-06-29 | vs PIT | 4.1 | 5 | 5.5 | 2 | 7 | 38% | 0.507 |
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