RB, Buffalo Bills. This page is line history: what he did against the number the books posted, game by game, with the window and the sample size printed beside every figure. Records run through the 2025 season.
Last 14 lined games · bar = what he did, number on the bar = the result, dash = the opening line (median of the books quoting it, each book's earliest capture) · teal over, red under
Counts of what happened against a real posted number, not a projection.
Matchup context
The game Buffalo Bills plays next · 2026 regular season to date · rosters checked October 20
Week 8 · Sunday, November 1 · 1:00 PM ET
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
Highmark Stadium · a_turf · outdoor
Johnson was 4th on the Bills in rushing attempts in 2026, with 2 of the 119 they called in the 4 regular season games he played. He is listed at 5-10 and 210 pounds, shorter than 68 percent of the 201 running backs on a 2026 roster and lighter than 57 percent of them. The 17 defenses on the Bills' 2026 schedule gave up 108.6 rushing yards a game last season; the 17 they met gave up 108.6.
Touchdown matchup
Touchdowns the defense he meets has allowed, beside his own offense
Baltimore Ravens defense
2026 regular season to date · 6 games
Offensive touchdowns allowed per game7th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed2.00TD
Points allowed per game15th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed22.0
Buffalo Bills offense
2026 regular season to date · 6 games
Offensive touchdowns per game2nd of 32 · 1st = most3.83TD
Rushing plus receiving touchdowns. Return and defensive scores are not in this figure.
Method: per-game figures over the 2026 regular season, with the games behind each one shown on its panel and every 2026 opponent rated on that same season. Clubs and roles move between seasons. Conditions, not forecasts.
Record against the posted line, by market
Every market our archive priced him in at least eight times · the line is each book's opening number, median across the books quoting it · a market we priced fewer times is left off rather than shown with a sample too small to mean anything
Market
Lined games
Over-Under
Over rate
Avg line
Avg result
Last line seen
Window
Anytime touchdown
45
8 of 45
18%
15% implied
8 scored, 7 implied
17% implied (2026-10-18)
2023-11-05 to 2026-10-18
Over rate excludes pushes and prints the decided count it is taken over. Whole-number markets (receptions, interceptions) push often, so overs divided by games would read several points off. The touchdown market posts no number at all, only a price, so it is graded as scored or not against the price implied by the books before their margin.
Where that record came from
Anytime touchdown · every split carries its own sample size, and a small one is left small rather than rounded into a headline
Split
Scored
Rate
Avg implied
n
All lined games
8 of 45
18%
15%
45
Home
5 of 23
22%
15%
23
Away
3 of 22
14%
15%
22
2026 season
0 of 4
0%
18%
4
2025 season
2 of 13
15%
16%
13
2024 season
5 of 19
26%
16%
19
2023 season
1 of 9
11%
10%
9
Game by game
Anytime touchdown · last 14 lined games · books = how many had a number up when we captured it
Date
Opp
Line
Result
Graded
Books
2026-10-18
at LV
17% implied
no
no
8
2026-10-12
at LA
17% implied
no
no
8
2026-10-04
vs NE
18% implied
no
no
8
2026-09-27
vs LAC
19% implied
no
no
8
2026-01-04
vs NYJ
22% implied
scored
scored
1
2025-12-28
vs PHI
17% implied
no
no
8
2025-12-21
at CLE
15% implied
scored
scored
6
2025-12-14
at NE
14% implied
no
no
7
2025-12-07
vs CIN
15% implied
no
no
3
2025-11-30
at PIT
22% implied
no
no
3
2025-11-20
at HOU
15% implied
no
no
6
2025-10-26
at CAR
15% implied
no
no
5
2025-10-13
at ATL
12% implied
no
no
4
2025-09-28
vs NO
15% implied
no
no
6
This week's line
Not published on this page yet
What is here. Every record on this page is measured against lines our archive actually recorded, through the end of the 2025 season.
What is not. A current week's number. Our live NFL prop capture covers two markets on a weekly schedule, which is not enough to post a number for every market above, so we post none of them rather than a partial set. When the capture widens, this block fills in and says which week it is reading.
Where these numbers come from
Results. Our own NFL game logs, refreshed weekly from the free nflverse release (nflverse-data, CC BY 4.0), matched to the league schedule for the season, the opponent and the home side. The rates, shares and ranks on this page are our own calculations over that data, not figures the source publishes.
Lines. Our odds archive, 2023 season onward. For each game we take every book's earliest recorded number and publish the median across them, so these are opening lines, never closing ones. Our archive is a fixed-hour grid and cannot honestly claim a close.
Which games count. A game counts only when a line we recorded lines up with a game he actually played, matched through the two clubs in that game. A prop on a player who was later ruled out has no result, so it is not in any denominator here.
Rosters and listed size. The weekly rosters from the same release (nflverse-data, CC BY 4.0), refreshed daily in season. They supply the club a player is on, his roster status, and the height and weight his club lists him at. The date they were last checked is printed at the top of the matchup section.
On method: every figure here is a count or a rate over completed games, measured against numbers the books actually posted, with its window and its games shown beside it. Small samples are left small and labelled. Nothing here is a pick or a recommendation.
Get the weekly projections recap
How our projections did against the market. One email a week, no picks, no spam, unsubscribe anytime.
We store only your email to send the recap. Analytics, not picks. Nothing here is betting advice.