QB, Buffalo Bills. This page is line history: what he did against the number the books posted, game by game, with the window and the sample size printed beside every figure. Records run through the 2025 season.
Every market our archive priced him in at least eight times · the line is each book's opening number, median across the books quoting it · a market we priced fewer times is left off rather than shown with a sample too small to mean anything
Market
Lined games
Over-Under
Over rate
Avg line
Avg result
Last line seen
Window
Interceptions thrown
56
27-29
48% of 56
0.50
0.64
0.5 (2026-01-17)
2023-09-11 to 2026-01-17
Passing yards
55
27-28
49% of 55
237.8
236.0
218.5 (2026-01-17)
2023-09-11 to 2026-01-17
Passing touchdowns
54
31-23
57% of 54
1.50
1.69
1.5 (2026-01-17)
2023-09-17 to 2026-01-17
Completions
30
17-13
57% of 30
20.4
19.8
19.5 (2026-01-17)
2023-10-01 to 2026-01-17
Pass attempts
30
14-16
47% of 30
30.8
29.0
29.5 (2026-01-17)
2023-10-01 to 2026-01-17
Anytime touchdown
50
29 of 50
58%
49% implied
29 scored, 24 implied
55% implied (2026-01-17)
2023-09-17 to 2026-01-17
Rushing yards
43
22-21
51% of 43
33.2
36.4
35.5 (2026-01-11)
2023-09-11 to 2026-01-11
Rush attempts
18
9-9
50% of 18
7.3
7.7
7.5 (2026-01-11)
2024-01-15 to 2026-01-11
Over rate excludes pushes and prints the decided count it is taken over. Whole-number markets (receptions, interceptions) push often, so overs divided by games would read several points off. The touchdown market posts no number at all, only a price, so it is graded as scored or not against the price implied by the books before their margin.
Passing yards against the posted line
Last 14 lined games · bar = what he did, dash = the opening line (median of the books quoting it, each book's earliest capture) · teal over, red under
Counts of what happened against a real posted number, not a projection.
Where that record came from
Passing yards · every split carries its own sample size, and a small one is left small rather than rounded into a headline
Split
Over-Under
Rate
Avg line
n
All lined games
27-28
49%
237.8
55
Home
15-14
52%
238.4
29
Away
12-14
46%
237.3
26
2025 season
9-8
53%
227.0
17
2024 season
10-9
53%
232.2
19
2023 season
8-11
42%
253.2
19
Game by game
Passing yards · last 14 lined games · books = how many had a number up when we captured it
Date
Opp
Line
Result
Graded
Books
2026-01-17
at DEN
218.5
283
over
5
2026-01-11
at JAX
225.5
273
over
7
2025-12-28
vs PHI
197.5
262
over
5
2025-12-21
at CLE
218.5
130
under
4
2025-12-14
at NE
227.5
193
under
6
2025-12-07
vs CIN
232.5
251
over
5
2025-11-30
at PIT
235.5
123
under
2
2025-11-20
at HOU
224.5
253
over
7
2025-11-16
vs TB
237.5
317
over
1
2025-11-02
vs KC
235.5
273
over
1
2025-10-26
at CAR
224.5
163
under
5
2025-10-13
at ATL
230.5
180
under
2
2025-10-05
vs NE
232.5
253
over
1
2025-09-28
vs NO
216.5
209
under
6
Season totals behind those lines
Our own game logs · totals with the per-game figure beside them · only the quantities the markets above are graded on
Season
Games
Interceptions thrown
Passing yards
Passing touchdowns
Completions
Pass attempts
Rushing yards
Rush attempts
Games with a TD
2025
19
12 (0.67/gm)
4,224 (234.7/gm)
29 (1.61/gm)
372 (20.7/gm)
534 (29.7/gm)
678 (37.7/gm)
135 (7.5/gm)
9 of 18
2024
20
6 (0.32/gm)
4,367 (229.8/gm)
32 (1.68/gm)
365 (19.2/gm)
565 (29.7/gm)
636 (33.5/gm)
131 (6.9/gm)
9 of 19
2023
19
18 (0.95/gm)
4,695 (247.1/gm)
33 (1.74/gm)
432 (22.7/gm)
648 (34.1/gm)
670 (35.3/gm)
131 (6.9/gm)
14 of 19
Tracking profile
2025 season · percentile = the share of the 32 qualified players (8+ tracked games) this player is above on the raw number · these are style and situation measures, so a high bar means more of the thing, not better
Completion % above expectation 0.9pts56
Passer rating 101.078
Intended air yards per attempt 7.019
Time to throw 2.86s56
Next scheduled game
2026-09-13 · away · 2026 season
BUF at HOU
From our own schedule table. Schedules move; this is what the feed says today.
This week's line
Not published on this page yet
What is here. Every record on this page is measured against lines our archive actually recorded, through the end of the 2025 season.
What is not. A current week's number. Our live NFL prop capture covers two markets on a weekly schedule, which is not enough to post a number for every market above, so we post none of them rather than a partial set. When the capture widens, this block fills in and says which week it is reading.
Where these numbers come from
Results. Our own NFL game logs, refreshed weekly from the free nflverse release, joined to our schedule table for the season, the opponent and the home side.
Lines. Our odds archive, 2023 season onward. For each game we take every book's earliest recorded number and publish the median across them, so these are opening lines, never closing ones. Our archive is a fixed-hour grid and cannot honestly claim a close.
Which games count. A game counts only when a line we recorded lines up with a game he actually played, matched through the two clubs in that game. A prop on a player who was later ruled out has no result, so it is not in any denominator here.
Tracking profile. The league's own tracking data for the 2025 season, compared against every qualified player in the same table. The universe size is printed on the block.
Information, not betting advice. This page reports what happened against real posted numbers, with windows and sample sizes attached. Small samples are labeled with their n so you can weigh them accordingly. No picks, no recommendations.
Get the weekly projections recap
How our projections did against the market. One email a week, no picks, no spam, unsubscribe anytime.
We store only your email to send the recap. Analytics, not picks. Nothing here is betting advice.