RB, Buffalo Bills. This page is line history: what he did against the number the books posted, game by game, with the window and the sample size printed beside every figure. Records run through the 2025 season.
Last 14 lined games · bar = what he did, number on the bar = the result, dash = the opening line (median of the books quoting it, each book's earliest capture) · teal over, red under
Counts of what happened against a real posted number, not a projection.
Matchup context
The game Buffalo Bills plays next · 2025 regular season · rosters checked September 28
Week 4 · Sunday, October 4 · 1:00 PM ET
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Highmark Stadium · a_turf · outdoor · division game
No one on the Bills saw more rushing attempts than Cook in 2025: 309 of the 547 they called in the 17 regular season games he played. He is listed at 5-11 and 190 pounds, taller than 53 percent of the 201 running backs on a 2026 roster and lighter than 97 percent of them. He ran into eight or more defenders in the box on 30.6 percent of his carries, a stacked box more often than 76 percent of the 37 backs the league's tracking data qualified in 2025. The 17 defenses on the Bills' 2026 schedule gave up 115.8 rushing yards a game last season; the 17 they met gave up 119.0.
Rushing matchup
What the defense he meets has given up on the ground, how often his offense runs, and how much of that is his
New England Patriots defense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Rushing yards allowed per game6th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed101.7yds
Rushing attempts faced per game5th of 32 · 1st = fewest faced24.2att
Yards allowed per rushing attempt13th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed4.21yds
Rushing touchdowns allowed per game4th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed0.65TD
Buffalo Bills offense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Rushing attempts per game1st of 32 · 1st = most32.2att
Rushing yards per game1st of 32 · 1st = most159.6yds
Pass plays as a share of plays from scrimmage31st of 32 · 1st = most pass-heavy49%
Yards per rushing attempt2nd of 32 · 1st = most4.96yds
James Cook
2025 regular season · 17 games
Rushing attempts per game18.2att
Rushing yards per game95.4yds
Yards per carry5.25yds
Share of his team's rushing attempts56%
Offensive snap share57%
Pass attempts plus sacks taken, over those plus rushing attempts. A sack is a called pass that never became an attempt, so it counts on the pass side. Kneel-downs sit inside the rushing attempts and cannot be separated out.His carries over his club's, counted across the games he played. Games he missed are in neither total.These are box score totals, not charted by alignment, so there is no split of what a defense gives up to slot receivers, to backs or to any other role. Nothing here claims one.
Receiving matchup
What the defense he meets has given up through the air, how much his offense throws, and how much of that goes to him
New England Patriots defense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Passing yards allowed per game9th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed206.6yds
Completions allowed per game15th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed20.6
Yards allowed per completion4th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed10.03yds
Passing touchdowns allowed per game14th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed1.47TD
Buffalo Bills offense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Pass attempts per game25th of 32 · 1st = most29.1att
Passing yards per game13th of 32 · 1st = most234.2yds
Pass plays as a share of plays from scrimmage31st of 32 · 1st = most pass-heavy49%
Share of passing yards gained after the catch8th of 32 · 1st = highest share53%
James Cook
2025 regular season · 17 games
Targets per game2.4
Receptions per game1.9
Receiving yards per game17.1yds
Catch rate82%
Share of his team's targets8%
Offensive snap share57%
Pass attempts plus sacks taken, over those plus rushing attempts. A sack is a called pass that never became an attempt, so it counts on the pass side. Kneel-downs sit inside the rushing attempts and cannot be separated out.His targets over his club's, counted across the games he played. Games he missed are in neither total.These are box score totals, not charted by alignment, so there is no split of what a defense gives up to slot receivers, to backs or to any other role. Nothing here claims one.
Touchdown matchup
Touchdowns the defense he meets has allowed, beside his own offense
New England Patriots defense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Offensive touchdowns allowed per game9th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed2.12TD
Points allowed per game4th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed18.8
Buffalo Bills offense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Offensive touchdowns per game2nd of 32 · 1st = most3.47TD
Rushing plus receiving touchdowns. Return and defensive scores are not in this figure.
Method: per-game figures over the 2025 regular season, with the games behind each one shown on its panel and every 2026 opponent rated on that same season. Clubs and roles move between seasons. Conditions, not forecasts.
Record against the posted line, by market
Every market our archive priced him in at least eight times · the line is each book's opening number, median across the books quoting it · a market we priced fewer times is left off rather than shown with a sample too small to mean anything
Market
Lined games
Over-Under
Over rate
Avg line
Avg result
Last line seen
Window
Rushing yards
47
30-17
64% of 47
64.3
81.2
78.5 (2026-09-27)
2023-09-11 to 2026-09-27
Rush attempts
20
10-10
50% of 20
15.7
17.6
18.5 (2026-01-17)
2023-10-01 to 2026-01-17
Anytime touchdown
55
29 of 55
53%
51% implied
29 scored, 28 implied
64% implied (2026-09-27)
2023-09-17 to 2026-09-27
Receiving yards
36
16-20
44% of 36
15.7
17.8
11.5 (2026-09-27)
2023-10-01 to 2026-09-27
Receptions
25
11-14
44% of 25
2.18
2.08
1.5 (2026-09-27)
2023-11-13 to 2026-09-27
Over rate excludes pushes and prints the decided count it is taken over. Whole-number markets (receptions, interceptions) push often, so overs divided by games would read several points off. The touchdown market posts no number at all, only a price, so it is graded as scored or not against the price implied by the books before their margin.
Where that record came from
Rushing yards · every split carries its own sample size, and a small one is left small rather than rounded into a headline
Split
Over-Under
Rate
Avg line
n
All lined games
30-17
64%
64.3
47
Home
16-11
59%
64.9
27
Away
14-6
70%
63.4
20
2026 season
2-1
67%
77.2
3
2025 season
9-5
64%
73.9
14
2024 season
10-6
62%
59.8
16
2023 season
9-5
64%
57.1
14
Game by game
Rushing yards · last 14 lined games · books = how many had a number up when we captured it
Date
Opp
Line
Result
Graded
Books
2026-09-27
vs LAC
78.5
154
over
5
2026-09-17
vs DET
78.5
135
over
6
2026-09-13
at HOU
74.5
57
under
6
2026-01-17
at DEN
80.5
117
over
5
2026-01-11
at JAX
80.5
46
under
4
2025-12-28
vs PHI
91.5
74
under
4
2025-12-14
at NE
80.5
107
over
6
2025-11-20
at HOU
73.5
116
over
7
2025-11-16
vs TB
80.5
48
under
1
2025-11-02
vs KC
75.5
114
over
1
2025-10-26
at CAR
72.5
216
over
5
2025-10-13
at ATL
65.5
87
over
2
2025-10-05
vs NE
81.5
49
under
1
2025-09-28
vs NO
76.5
117
over
4
Season totals behind those lines
Our own game logs · totals with the per-game figure beside them · only the quantities the markets above are graded on
Season
Games
Rushing yards
Rush attempts
Receiving yards
Receptions
Games with a TD
2026
3
346 (115.3/gm)
58 (19.3/gm)
16 (5.3/gm)
4 (1.33/gm)
2 of 3
2025
19
1,784 (93.9/gm)
348 (18.3/gm)
320 (16.8/gm)
37 (1.95/gm)
9 of 19
2024
19
1,281 (67.4/gm)
260 (13.7/gm)
322 (16.9/gm)
38 (2.00/gm)
14 of 19
2023
19
1,262 (66.4/gm)
273 (14.4/gm)
471 (24.8/gm)
52 (2.74/gm)
5 of 19
Tracking profile
2025 season · percentile = the share of the 37 qualified players (8+ tracked games) this player is above on the raw number · these are style and situation measures, so a high bar means more of the thing, not better
Rush yards over expected per attempt 0.9986
Rush yards per attempt 5.0784
Runs against 8+ in the box 30.6%76
Time to the line of scrimmage 2.58s3
This week's line
Not published on this page yet
What is here. Every record on this page is measured against lines our archive actually recorded, through the end of the 2025 season.
What is not. A current week's number. Our live NFL prop capture covers two markets on a weekly schedule, which is not enough to post a number for every market above, so we post none of them rather than a partial set. When the capture widens, this block fills in and says which week it is reading.
Where these numbers come from
Results. Our own NFL game logs, refreshed weekly from the free nflverse release (nflverse-data, CC BY 4.0), matched to the league schedule for the season, the opponent and the home side. The rates, shares and ranks on this page are our own calculations over that data, not figures the source publishes.
Lines. Our odds archive, 2023 season onward. For each game we take every book's earliest recorded number and publish the median across them, so these are opening lines, never closing ones. Our archive is a fixed-hour grid and cannot honestly claim a close.
Which games count. A game counts only when a line we recorded lines up with a game he actually played, matched through the two clubs in that game. A prop on a player who was later ruled out has no result, so it is not in any denominator here.
Tracking profile. The league's own tracking data for the 2025 season, compared against every player it qualified at his position. The size of that group is printed on the block.
Rosters and listed size. The weekly rosters from the same release (nflverse-data, CC BY 4.0), refreshed daily in season. They supply the club a player is on, his roster status, and the height and weight his club lists him at. The date they were last checked is printed at the top of the matchup section.
On method: every figure here is a count or a rate over completed games, measured against numbers the books actually posted, with its window and its games shown beside it. Small samples are left small and labelled. Nothing here is a pick or a recommendation.
Get the weekly projections recap
How our projections did against the market. One email a week, no picks, no spam, unsubscribe anytime.
We store only your email to send the recap. Analytics, not picks. Nothing here is betting advice.