San Diego Padres batter. Every number from our own game archive, season table and prop-line archive, with windows and sample sizes printed beside it.
| Split | O–U | Avg TB | Avg line | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All lined games | 72–82 | 1.79 | 1.51 | 154 |
| vs top-10 pitching staffs (ERA) | 18–25 | 1.6 | 1.45 | 43 |
| vs bottom-10 pitching staffs | 29–22 | 2.29 | 1.56 | 51 |
| Home | 35–43 | 1.69 | 1.49 | 78 |
| Away | 37–39 | 1.88 | 1.54 | 76 |
| Last 7 | 4–3 | 1.86 | 1.5 | 7 |
Staff quality = 2026 team ERA rank from our own pitching logs. Counts of what happened, not predictions.
Every total bases and hits prop posted on Fernando Tatis Jr. for an upcoming game where at least four books quote both sides of the same number, beside the fair value those books imply once each one's margin is removed. Prop prices are captured on the morning of the game and are not refreshed afterwards.
Fair value is what the price would be with the sportsbook margin removed: each book's own two prices on the same number, margin taken out, then the median across every book quoting that number. A side needs at least four such books before it carries a fair value here. This is market arithmetic, not a projection of ours and not a pick. What fair value means and the full MLB price vs fair board.
| Date | Opp | AB | H | HR | TB | TB line | RBI | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | vs Milwaukee Brewers | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2026-10-06 | vs Milwaukee Brewers | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | at Milwaukee Brewers | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | at Milwaukee Brewers | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 2026-09-30 | vs Chicago Cubs | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2026-09-29 | vs Chicago Cubs | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2026-09-26 | vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2026-09-25 | vs Arizona Diamondbacks | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-09-24 | at Los Angeles Dodgers | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | at Los Angeles Dodgers | 5 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | at Los Angeles Dodgers | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | vs Miami Marlins | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-09-19 | vs Miami Marlins | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | vs Miami Marlins | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | at Colorado Rockies | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
How our projections did against the market. One email a week, no picks, no spam, unsubscribe anytime.
We store only your email to send the recap. Analytics, not picks. Nothing here is betting advice.