QB, Atlanta Falcons. This page is line history: what he did against the number the books posted, game by game, with the window and the sample size printed beside every figure. Records run through the 2025 season.
Last 14 lined games · bar = what he did, number on the bar = the result, dash = the opening line (median of the books quoting it, each book's earliest capture) · teal over, red under
Counts of what happened against a real posted number, not a projection.
Matchup context
The game Atlanta Falcons plays next · 2025 regular season · rosters checked September 7
Week 1 · Sunday, September 13 · 1:00 PM ET
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers
Acrisure Stadium · grass · outdoor
Tagovailoa is with the Falcons now, and the mix barely moves: both clubs threw on about 54 percent of their plays last season, 21st and 22nd of 32. He has not played a game for them, so the club figures below are the Falcons' and his own are what he did with the Dolphins. Tagovailoa threw 384 of the 402 pass attempts the Dolphins made in the 14 regular season games he played in 2025. He is listed at 6-1 and 218 pounds, shorter than 83 percent of the 116 quarterbacks on a 2026 roster and lighter than 58 percent of them. The 17 defenses on the Falcons' 2026 schedule gave up 226.6 passing yards a game last season; the 17 the Dolphins met gave up 221.4.
Passing matchup
What the defense he meets has given up through the air, how often his offense throws, and what he has done with it
Pittsburgh Steelers defense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Passing yards allowed per game30th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed261.0yds
Pass attempts faced per game29th of 32 · 1st = fewest faced36.1att
Completion rate allowed16th of 32 · 1st = lowest allowed64.6%
Passing touchdowns allowed per game23rd of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed1.76TD
Sacks made per game5th of 32 · 1st = most2.82
Interceptions made per game8th of 32 · 1st = most0.88
Atlanta Falcons offense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Pass attempts per game19th of 32 · 1st = most32.1att
Passing yards per game20th of 32 · 1st = most217.8yds
Pass plays as a share of plays from scrimmage21st of 32 · 1st = most pass-heavy54%
Sacks taken per game4th of 32 · 1st = fewest1.53
Air yards per pass attempt19th of 32 · 1st = most7.65yds
Tua Tagovailoa
2025 regular season · 14 games
Pass attempts per game27.4att
Passing yards per game190.0yds
Completion rate67.7%
Yards per pass attempt6.93yds
Sacks taken per game2.14
Sacks credited to their defenders. It is not always the same count as the sacks their opponents were charged with allowing.Pass attempts plus sacks taken, over those plus rushing attempts. A sack is a called pass that never became an attempt, so it counts on the pass side. Kneel-downs sit inside the rushing attempts and cannot be separated out.These are box score totals, not charted by alignment, so there is no split of what a defense gives up to slot receivers, to backs or to any other role. Nothing here claims one.
Rushing matchup
What the defense he meets has given up on the ground, how often his offense runs, and how much of that is his
Pittsburgh Steelers defense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Rushing yards allowed per game13th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed113.1yds
Rushing attempts faced per game15th of 32 · 1st = fewest faced26.5att
Yards allowed per rushing attempt15th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed4.26yds
Rushing touchdowns allowed per game3rd of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed0.59TD
Atlanta Falcons offense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Rushing attempts per game12th of 32 · 1st = most28.1att
Rushing yards per game8th of 32 · 1st = most125.8yds
Pass plays as a share of plays from scrimmage21st of 32 · 1st = most pass-heavy54%
Yards per rushing attempt12th of 32 · 1st = most4.48yds
Tua Tagovailoa
2025 regular season · 14 games
Rushing attempts per game1.4att
Rushing yards per game3.1yds
Yards per carry2.15yds
Share of his team's rushing attempts6%
Offensive snap share95%
Pass attempts plus sacks taken, over those plus rushing attempts. A sack is a called pass that never became an attempt, so it counts on the pass side. Kneel-downs sit inside the rushing attempts and cannot be separated out.His carries over his club's, counted across the games he played. Games he missed are in neither total.These are box score totals, not charted by alignment, so there is no split of what a defense gives up to slot receivers, to backs or to any other role. Nothing here claims one.
Touchdown matchup
Touchdowns the defense he meets has allowed, beside his own offense
Pittsburgh Steelers defense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Offensive touchdowns allowed per game15th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed2.35TD
Points allowed per game17th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed22.8
Atlanta Falcons offense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Offensive touchdowns per game23rd of 32 · 1st = most2.12TD
Rushing plus receiving touchdowns. Return and defensive scores are not in this figure.
Method: per-game figures over the 2025 regular season, with the games behind each one shown on its panel and every 2026 opponent rated on that same season. Clubs and roles move between seasons. Conditions, not forecasts.
Record against the posted line, by market
Every market our archive priced him in at least eight times · the line is each book's opening number, median across the books quoting it · a market we priced fewer times is left off rather than shown with a sample too small to mean anything
Market
Lined games
Over-Under
Over rate
Avg line
Avg result
Last line seen
Window
Interceptions thrown
43
23-20
53% of 43
0.50
0.86
0.5 (2025-12-15)
2023-09-10 to 2025-12-15
Passing yards
40
17-23
42% of 40
247.2
238.9
199.5 (2025-12-15)
2023-09-10 to 2025-12-15
Passing touchdowns
39
19-20
49% of 39
1.53
1.64
1.5 (2025-12-15)
2023-09-10 to 2025-12-15
Completions
21
10-11
48% of 21
22.1
22.2
19.5 (2025-12-15)
2023-10-01 to 2025-12-15
Pass attempts
21
8-13
38% of 21
32.8
31.5
29.5 (2025-12-15)
2023-10-01 to 2025-12-15
Anytime touchdown
37
0 of 37
0%
12% implied
0 scored, 4 implied
6% implied (2025-12-07)
2023-09-10 to 2025-12-07
Rushing yards
15
5-10
33% of 15
3.7
3.1
1.5 (2025-10-30)
2023-09-10 to 2025-10-30
Over rate excludes pushes and prints the decided count it is taken over. Whole-number markets (receptions, interceptions) push often, so overs divided by games would read several points off. The touchdown market posts no number at all, only a price, so it is graded as scored or not against the price implied by the books before their margin.
Where that record came from
Passing yards · every split carries its own sample size, and a small one is left small rather than rounded into a headline
Split
Over-Under
Rate
Avg line
n
All lined games
17-23
42%
247.2
40
Home
11-10
52%
248.5
21
Away
6-13
32%
245.8
19
2025 season
5-9
36%
221.5
14
2024 season
5-5
50%
252.7
10
2023 season
7-9
44%
266.3
16
Game by game
Passing yards · last 14 lined games · books = how many had a number up when we captured it
Date
Opp
Line
Result
Graded
Books
2025-12-15
at PIT
199.5
253
over
4
2025-12-07
at NYJ
214.5
127
under
7
2025-11-30
vs NO
213.5
157
under
5
2025-11-16
vs WAS
236.5
171
under
5
2025-11-09
vs BUF
215.5
173
under
2
2025-10-30
vs BAL
215.5
261
over
2
2025-10-26
at ATL
200.5
205
over
7
2025-10-19
at CLE
219.5
100
under
1
2025-10-12
vs LAC
220.5
205
under
2
2025-10-05
at CAR
223.5
256
over
1
2025-09-29
vs NYJ
235.5
177
under
6
2025-09-18
at BUF
237.5
146
under
8
2025-09-14
vs NE
232.5
315
over
1
2025-09-07
at IND
236.5
114
under
1
Season totals behind those lines
Our own game logs · totals with the per-game figure beside them · only the quantities the markets above are graded on
Season
Games
Interceptions thrown
Passing yards
Passing touchdowns
Completions
Pass attempts
Rushing yards
Games with a TD
2025
14
15 (1.07/gm)
2,660 (190.0/gm)
20 (1.43/gm)
260 (18.6/gm)
384 (27.4/gm)
43 (3.1/gm)
0 of 14
2024
11
7 (0.64/gm)
2,867 (260.6/gm)
19 (1.73/gm)
291 (26.5/gm)
399 (36.3/gm)
49 (4.5/gm)
0 of 11
2023
18
15 (0.83/gm)
4,823 (267.9/gm)
30 (1.67/gm)
408 (22.7/gm)
599 (33.3/gm)
99 (5.5/gm)
0 of 18
Tracking profile
2025 season · percentile = the share of the 32 qualified players (8+ tracked games) this player is above on the raw number · these are style and situation measures, so a high bar means more of the thing, not better
Completion % above expectation -1.1pts34
Passer rating 87.325
Intended air yards per attempt 6.76
Time to throw 2.66s3
This week's line
Not published on this page yet
What is here. Every record on this page is measured against lines our archive actually recorded, through the end of the 2025 season.
What is not. A current week's number. Our live NFL prop capture covers two markets on a weekly schedule, which is not enough to post a number for every market above, so we post none of them rather than a partial set. When the capture widens, this block fills in and says which week it is reading.
Where these numbers come from
Results. Our own NFL game logs, refreshed weekly from the free nflverse release (nflverse-data, CC BY 4.0), matched to the league schedule for the season, the opponent and the home side. The rates, shares and ranks on this page are our own calculations over that data, not figures the source publishes.
Lines. Our odds archive, 2023 season onward. For each game we take every book's earliest recorded number and publish the median across them, so these are opening lines, never closing ones. Our archive is a fixed-hour grid and cannot honestly claim a close.
Which games count. A game counts only when a line we recorded lines up with a game he actually played, matched through the two clubs in that game. A prop on a player who was later ruled out has no result, so it is not in any denominator here.
Tracking profile. The league's own tracking data for the 2025 season, compared against every player it qualified at his position. The size of that group is printed on the block.
Rosters and listed size. The weekly rosters from the same release (nflverse-data, CC BY 4.0), refreshed daily in season. They supply the club a player is on, his roster status, and the height and weight his club lists him at. The date they were last checked is printed at the top of the matchup section.
On method: every figure here is a count or a rate over completed games, measured against numbers the books actually posted, with its window and its games shown beside it. Small samples are left small and labelled. Nothing here is a pick or a recommendation.
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