QB, Atlanta Falcons. This page is line history: what he did against the number the books posted, game by game, with the window and the sample size printed beside every figure. Records run through the 2025 season.
Last 14 lined games · bar = what he did, number on the bar = the result, dash = the opening line (median of the books quoting it, each book's earliest capture) · teal over, red under
Counts of what happened against a real posted number, not a projection.
Matchup context
The game Atlanta Falcons plays next · 2026 regular season to date · rosters checked October 20
Week 7 · Sunday, October 25 · 1:00 PM ET
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · fieldturf · retractable
Tagovailoa is with the Falcons now, and the mix barely moves: both clubs threw on about 51 percent of their plays this season, 29th and 29th of 32. He has 1 game for them inside the season below. Tagovailoa threw 3 of the 35 pass attempts the Falcons made in the 1 regular season game he played in 2026. He is listed at 6-1 and 225 pounds, shorter than 83 percent of the 118 quarterbacks on a 2026 roster and heavier than 72 percent of them. The 17 defenses on the Falcons' 2026 schedule gave up 238.4 passing yards a game last season; the 17 they met gave up 238.4.
Passing matchup
What the defense he meets has given up through the air, how often his offense throws, and what he has done with it
San Francisco 49ers defense
2026 regular season to date · 6 games
Passing yards allowed per game10th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed225.7yds
Pass attempts faced per game22nd of 32 · 1st = fewest faced35.7att
Completion rate allowed22nd of 32 · 1st = lowest allowed65.9%
Passing touchdowns allowed per game7th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed1.17TD
Sacks made per game12th of 32 · 1st = most2.50
Interceptions made per game21st of 32 · 1st = most0.50
Atlanta Falcons offense
2026 regular season to date · 6 games
Pass attempts per game31st of 32 · 1st = most27.8att
Passing yards per game24th of 32 · 1st = most211.0yds
Pass plays as a share of plays from scrimmage29th of 32 · 1st = most pass-heavy51%
Sacks taken per game22nd of 32 · 1st = fewest2.67
Air yards per pass attempt30th of 32 · 1st = most6.47yds
Tua Tagovailoa
2026 regular season to date · 1 games
Pass attempts per game3.0att
Passing yards per game34.0yds
Completion rate66.7%
Yards per pass attempt11.33yds
Sacks taken per game0.00
Sacks credited to their defenders. It is not always the same count as the sacks their opponents were charged with allowing.Pass attempts plus sacks taken, over those plus rushing attempts. A sack is a called pass that never became an attempt, so it counts on the pass side. Kneel-downs sit inside the rushing attempts and cannot be separated out.These are box score totals, not charted by alignment, so there is no split of what a defense gives up to slot receivers, to backs or to any other role. Nothing here claims one.
Rushing matchup
What the defense he meets has given up on the ground, how often his offense runs, and how much of that is his
San Francisco 49ers defense
2026 regular season to date · 6 games
Rushing yards allowed per game7th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed90.2yds
Rushing attempts faced per game9th of 32 · 1st = fewest faced25.0att
Yards allowed per rushing attempt7th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed3.61yds
Rushing touchdowns allowed per game4th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed0.50TD
Atlanta Falcons offense
2026 regular season to date · 6 games
Rushing attempts per game5th of 32 · 1st = most29.5att
Rushing yards per game4th of 32 · 1st = most149.5yds
Pass plays as a share of plays from scrimmage29th of 32 · 1st = most pass-heavy51%
Yards per rushing attempt3rd of 32 · 1st = most5.07yds
Tua Tagovailoa
2026 regular season to date · 1 games
Rushing attempts per game0.0att
Rushing yards per game0.0yds
Share of his team's rushing attempts0%
Offensive snap share5%
Pass attempts plus sacks taken, over those plus rushing attempts. A sack is a called pass that never became an attempt, so it counts on the pass side. Kneel-downs sit inside the rushing attempts and cannot be separated out.His carries over his club's, counted across the games he played. Games he missed are in neither total.These are box score totals, not charted by alignment, so there is no split of what a defense gives up to slot receivers, to backs or to any other role. Nothing here claims one.
Touchdown matchup
Touchdowns the defense he meets has allowed, beside his own offense
San Francisco 49ers defense
2026 regular season to date · 6 games
Offensive touchdowns allowed per game3rd of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed1.67TD
Points allowed per game4th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed18.3
Atlanta Falcons offense
2026 regular season to date · 6 games
Offensive touchdowns per game15th of 32 · 1st = most2.50TD
Rushing plus receiving touchdowns. Return and defensive scores are not in this figure.
Method: per-game figures over the 2026 regular season, with the games behind each one shown on its panel and every 2026 opponent rated on that same season. Clubs and roles move between seasons. Conditions, not forecasts.
Record against the posted line, by market
Every market our archive priced him in at least eight times · the line is each book's opening number, median across the books quoting it · a market we priced fewer times is left off rather than shown with a sample too small to mean anything
Market
Lined games
Over-Under
Over rate
Avg line
Avg result
Last line seen
Window
Interceptions thrown
43
23-20
53% of 43
0.50
0.86
0.5 (2025-12-15)
2023-09-10 to 2025-12-15
Passing yards
40
17-23
42% of 40
247.2
238.9
199.5 (2025-12-15)
2023-09-10 to 2025-12-15
Passing touchdowns
39
19-20
49% of 39
1.53
1.64
1.5 (2025-12-15)
2023-09-10 to 2025-12-15
Completions
21
10-11
48% of 21
22.1
22.2
19.5 (2025-12-15)
2023-10-01 to 2025-12-15
Pass attempts
21
8-13
38% of 21
32.8
31.5
29.5 (2025-12-15)
2023-10-01 to 2025-12-15
Anytime touchdown
37
0 of 37
0%
12% implied
0 scored, 4 implied
6% implied (2025-12-07)
2023-09-10 to 2025-12-07
Rushing yards
15
5-10
33% of 15
3.7
3.1
1.5 (2025-10-30)
2023-09-10 to 2025-10-30
Over rate excludes pushes and prints the decided count it is taken over. Whole-number markets (receptions, interceptions) push often, so overs divided by games would read several points off. The touchdown market posts no number at all, only a price, so it is graded as scored or not against the price implied by the books before their margin.
Where that record came from
Passing yards · every split carries its own sample size, and a small one is left small rather than rounded into a headline
Split
Over-Under
Rate
Avg line
n
All lined games
17-23
42%
247.2
40
Home
11-10
52%
248.5
21
Away
6-13
32%
245.8
19
2025 season
5-9
36%
221.5
14
2024 season
5-5
50%
252.7
10
2023 season
7-9
44%
266.3
16
Game by game
Passing yards · last 14 lined games · books = how many had a number up when we captured it
Date
Opp
Line
Result
Graded
Books
2025-12-15
at PIT
199.5
253
over
4
2025-12-07
at NYJ
214.5
127
under
7
2025-11-30
vs NO
213.5
157
under
5
2025-11-16
vs WAS
236.5
171
under
5
2025-11-09
vs BUF
215.5
173
under
2
2025-10-30
vs BAL
215.5
261
over
2
2025-10-26
at ATL
200.5
205
over
7
2025-10-19
at CLE
219.5
100
under
1
2025-10-12
vs LAC
220.5
205
under
2
2025-10-05
at CAR
223.5
256
over
1
2025-09-29
vs NYJ
235.5
177
under
6
2025-09-18
at BUF
237.5
146
under
8
2025-09-14
vs NE
232.5
315
over
1
2025-09-07
at IND
236.5
114
under
1
Season totals behind those lines
Our own game logs · totals with the per-game figure beside them · only the quantities the markets above are graded on
Season
Games
Interceptions thrown
Passing yards
Passing touchdowns
Completions
Pass attempts
Rushing yards
Games with a TD
2026
1
1 (1.00/gm)
34 (34.0/gm)
0 (0.00/gm)
2 (2.0/gm)
3 (3.0/gm)
0 (0.0/gm)
0 of 1
2025
14
15 (1.07/gm)
2,660 (190.0/gm)
20 (1.43/gm)
260 (18.6/gm)
384 (27.4/gm)
43 (3.1/gm)
0 of 14
2024
11
7 (0.64/gm)
2,867 (260.6/gm)
19 (1.73/gm)
291 (26.5/gm)
399 (36.3/gm)
49 (4.5/gm)
0 of 11
2023
18
15 (0.83/gm)
4,823 (267.9/gm)
30 (1.67/gm)
408 (22.7/gm)
599 (33.3/gm)
99 (5.5/gm)
0 of 18
Tracking profile
2025 season · percentile = the share of the 32 qualified players (8+ tracked games) this player is above on the raw number · these are style and situation measures, so a high bar means more of the thing, not better
Completion % above expectation -1.1pts34
Passer rating 87.325
Intended air yards per attempt 6.76
Time to throw 2.66s3
This week's line
Not published on this page yet
What is here. Every record on this page is measured against lines our archive actually recorded, through the end of the 2025 season.
What is not. A current week's number. Our live NFL prop capture covers two markets on a weekly schedule, which is not enough to post a number for every market above, so we post none of them rather than a partial set. When the capture widens, this block fills in and says which week it is reading.
Where these numbers come from
Results. Our own NFL game logs, refreshed weekly from the free nflverse release (nflverse-data, CC BY 4.0), matched to the league schedule for the season, the opponent and the home side. The rates, shares and ranks on this page are our own calculations over that data, not figures the source publishes.
Lines. Our odds archive, 2023 season onward. For each game we take every book's earliest recorded number and publish the median across them, so these are opening lines, never closing ones. Our archive is a fixed-hour grid and cannot honestly claim a close.
Which games count. A game counts only when a line we recorded lines up with a game he actually played, matched through the two clubs in that game. A prop on a player who was later ruled out has no result, so it is not in any denominator here.
Tracking profile. The league's own tracking data for the 2025 season, compared against every player it qualified at his position. The size of that group is printed on the block.
Rosters and listed size. The weekly rosters from the same release (nflverse-data, CC BY 4.0), refreshed daily in season. They supply the club a player is on, his roster status, and the height and weight his club lists him at. The date they were last checked is printed at the top of the matchup section.
On method: every figure here is a count or a rate over completed games, measured against numbers the books actually posted, with its window and its games shown beside it. Small samples are left small and labelled. Nothing here is a pick or a recommendation.
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