Travis Kelce

Receiving yards against the posted line

Counts of what happened against a real posted number, not a projection.

Matchup context

No one on the Chiefs saw more targets than Kelce in 2025: 108 of the 549 they threw in the 17 regular season games he played. He is listed at 6-5 and 260 pounds, taller than 61 percent of the 189 tight ends on a 2026 roster and heavier than 89 percent of them. Defensive backs gave him 5.52 yards of cushion at the snap, a tighter cushion than 82 percent of the 67 receivers the league's tracking data qualified in 2025. The 17 defenses on the Chiefs' 2026 schedule gave up 219.9 passing yards a game last season; the 17 they met gave up 224.3.

Method: per-game figures over the 2025 regular season, with the games behind each one shown on its panel and every 2026 opponent rated on that same season. Clubs and roles move between seasons. Conditions, not forecasts.

Record against the posted line, by market

Over rate excludes pushes and prints the decided count it is taken over. Whole-number markets (receptions, interceptions) push often, so overs divided by games would read several points off. The touchdown market posts no number at all, only a price, so it is graded as scored or not against the price implied by the books before their margin.

Where that record came from

Game by game

Season totals behind those lines

Tracking profile

This week's line

• What is here. Every record on this page is measured against lines our archive actually recorded, through the end of the 2025 season.
• What is not. A current week's number. Our live NFL prop capture covers two markets on a weekly schedule, which is not enough to post a number for every market above, so we post none of them rather than a partial set. When the capture widens, this block fills in and says which week it is reading.

Where these numbers come from

• Results. Our own NFL game logs, refreshed weekly from the free nflverse release (nflverse-data, CC BY 4.0), matched to the league schedule for the season, the opponent and the home side. The rates, shares and ranks on this page are our own calculations over that data, not figures the source publishes.
• Lines. Our odds archive, 2023 season onward. For each game we take every book's earliest recorded number and publish the median across them, so these are opening lines, never closing ones. Our archive is a fixed-hour grid and cannot honestly claim a close.
• Which games count. A game counts only when a line we recorded lines up with a game he actually played, matched through the two clubs in that game. A prop on a player who was later ruled out has no result, so it is not in any denominator here.
• Tracking profile. The league's own tracking data for the 2025 season, compared against every player it qualified at his position. The size of that group is printed on the block.
• Rosters and listed size. The weekly rosters from the same release (nflverse-data, CC BY 4.0), refreshed daily in season. They supply the club a player is on, his roster status, and the height and weight his club lists him at. The date they were last checked is printed at the top of the matchup section.