QB, Kansas City Chiefs. This page is line history: what he did against the number the books posted, game by game, with the window and the sample size printed beside every figure. Records run through the 2025 season.
Last 14 lined games · bar = what he did, number on the bar = the result, dash = the opening line (median of the books quoting it, each book's earliest capture) · teal over, red under
Counts of what happened against a real posted number, not a projection.
Matchup context
The game Kansas City Chiefs plays next · 2025 regular season · rosters checked September 7
Week 1 · Monday, September 14 · 8:15 PM ET
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · grass · outdoor · division game
Mahomes threw 502 of the 507 pass attempts the Chiefs made in the 14 regular season games he played in 2025. He is listed at 6-2 and 230 pounds, shorter than 61 percent of the 116 quarterbacks on a 2026 roster and heavier than 84 percent of them. He held the ball 2.79 seconds before throwing, quicker than 72 percent of the 32 passers the league's tracking data qualified in 2025. The 17 defenses on the Chiefs' 2026 schedule gave up 219.9 passing yards a game last season; the 17 they met gave up 224.3.
Passing matchup
What the defense he meets has given up through the air, how often his offense throws, and what he has done with it
Denver Broncos defense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Passing yards allowed per game11th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed212.1yds
Pass attempts faced per game27th of 32 · 1st = fewest faced34.9att
Completion rate allowed2nd of 32 · 1st = lowest allowed57.8%
Passing touchdowns allowed per game4th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed1.06TD
Sacks made per game1st of 32 · 1st = most4.00
Interceptions made per game18th of 32 · 1st = most0.59
Kansas City Chiefs offense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Pass attempts per game7th of 32 · 1st = most34.4att
Passing yards per game16th of 32 · 1st = most232.2yds
Pass plays as a share of plays from scrimmage6th of 32 · 1st = most pass-heavy59%
Sacks taken per game22nd of 32 · 1st = fewest2.76
Air yards per pass attempt18th of 32 · 1st = most7.76yds
Patrick Mahomes
2025 regular season · 14 games
Pass attempts per game35.9att
Passing yards per game256.2yds
Completion rate62.7%
Yards per pass attempt7.15yds
Sacks taken per game2.43
Sacks credited to their defenders. It is not always the same count as the sacks their opponents were charged with allowing.Pass attempts plus sacks taken, over those plus rushing attempts. A sack is a called pass that never became an attempt, so it counts on the pass side. Kneel-downs sit inside the rushing attempts and cannot be separated out.These are box score totals, not charted by alignment, so there is no split of what a defense gives up to slot receivers, to backs or to any other role. Nothing here claims one.
Rushing matchup
What the defense he meets has given up on the ground, how often his offense runs, and how much of that is his
Denver Broncos defense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Rushing yards allowed per game2nd of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed91.1yds
Rushing attempts faced per game3rd of 32 · 1st = fewest faced23.5att
Yards allowed per rushing attempt3rd of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed3.87yds
Rushing touchdowns allowed per game4th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed0.65TD
Kansas City Chiefs offense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Rushing attempts per game25th of 32 · 1st = most25.3att
Rushing yards per game25th of 32 · 1st = most106.6yds
Pass plays as a share of plays from scrimmage6th of 32 · 1st = most pass-heavy59%
Yards per rushing attempt20th of 32 · 1st = most4.21yds
Patrick Mahomes
2025 regular season · 14 games
Rushing attempts per game4.6att
Rushing yards per game30.1yds
Yards per carry6.59yds
Share of his team's rushing attempts17%
Offensive snap share97%
Pass attempts plus sacks taken, over those plus rushing attempts. A sack is a called pass that never became an attempt, so it counts on the pass side. Kneel-downs sit inside the rushing attempts and cannot be separated out.His carries over his club's, counted across the games he played. Games he missed are in neither total.These are box score totals, not charted by alignment, so there is no split of what a defense gives up to slot receivers, to backs or to any other role. Nothing here claims one.
Touchdown matchup
Touchdowns the defense he meets has allowed, beside his own offense
Denver Broncos defense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Offensive touchdowns allowed per game2nd of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed1.71TD
Points allowed per game3rd of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed18.3
Kansas City Chiefs offense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Offensive touchdowns per game20th of 32 · 1st = most2.24TD
Rushing plus receiving touchdowns. Return and defensive scores are not in this figure.
Method: per-game figures over the 2025 regular season, with the games behind each one shown on its panel and every 2026 opponent rated on that same season. Clubs and roles move between seasons. Conditions, not forecasts.
Record against the posted line, by market
Every market our archive priced him in at least eight times · the line is each book's opening number, median across the books quoting it · a market we priced fewer times is left off rather than shown with a sample too small to mean anything
Market
Lined games
Over-Under
Over rate
Avg line
Avg result
Last line seen
Window
Interceptions thrown
53
29-24
55% of 53
0.50
0.74
0.5 (2025-12-14)
2023-09-07 to 2025-12-14
Passing yards
51
24-27
47% of 51
258.5
254.1
240.5 (2025-12-14)
2023-09-07 to 2025-12-14
Passing touchdowns
50
19-31
38% of 50
1.76
1.66
1.5 (2025-12-14)
2023-09-07 to 2025-12-14
Completions
32
17-15
53% of 32
23.8
23.4
22.5 (2025-12-14)
2023-09-24 to 2025-12-14
Pass attempts
32
16-16
50% of 32
35.6
35.5
34.5 (2025-12-14)
2023-09-24 to 2025-12-14
Anytime touchdown
48
7 of 48
15%
21% implied
7 scored, 10 implied
17% implied (2025-12-14)
2023-09-17 to 2025-12-14
Rushing yards
37
19-18
51% of 37
21.5
27.3
20.5 (2025-12-07)
2023-09-07 to 2025-12-07
Rush attempts
22
11-11
50% of 22
4.5
5.0
4.5 (2025-11-16)
2023-09-24 to 2025-11-16
Over rate excludes pushes and prints the decided count it is taken over. Whole-number markets (receptions, interceptions) push often, so overs divided by games would read several points off. The touchdown market posts no number at all, only a price, so it is graded as scored or not against the price implied by the books before their margin.
Where that record came from
Passing yards · every split carries its own sample size, and a small one is left small rather than rounded into a headline
Split
Over-Under
Rate
Avg line
n
All lined games
24-27
47%
258.5
51
Home
14-13
52%
259.7
27
Away
10-14
42%
257.2
24
2025 season
7-7
50%
253.9
14
2024 season
9-8
53%
247.1
17
2023 season
8-12
40%
271.4
20
Game by game
Passing yards · last 14 lined games · books = how many had a number up when we captured it
Date
Opp
Line
Result
Graded
Books
2025-12-14
vs LAC
240.5
189
under
1
2025-12-07
vs HOU
234.5
160
under
4
2025-11-27
at DAL
266.5
261
under
6
2025-11-23
vs IND
271.5
352
over
6
2025-11-16
at DEN
260.5
276
over
5
2025-11-02
at BUF
269.5
250
under
1
2025-10-27
vs WAS
281.5
299
over
1
2025-10-19
vs LV
258.5
286
over
3
2025-10-12
vs DET
259.5
257
under
7
2025-10-06
at JAX
249.5
318
over
3
2025-09-28
vs BAL
234.5
270
over
5
2025-09-21
at NYG
232.5
224
under
3
2025-09-14
vs PHI
240.5
187
under
2
2025-09-05
at LAC
255.5
258
over
1
Season totals behind those lines
Our own game logs · totals with the per-game figure beside them · only the quantities the markets above are graded on
Season
Games
Interceptions thrown
Passing yards
Passing touchdowns
Completions
Pass attempts
Rushing yards
Rush attempts
Games with a TD
2025
14
11 (0.79/gm)
3,587 (256.2/gm)
22 (1.57/gm)
315 (22.5/gm)
502 (35.9/gm)
422 (30.1/gm)
64 (4.6/gm)
5 of 14
2024
19
13 (0.68/gm)
4,607 (242.5/gm)
31 (1.63/gm)
447 (23.5/gm)
664 (34.9/gm)
389 (20.5/gm)
80 (4.2/gm)
3 of 19
2023
20
15 (0.75/gm)
5,234 (261.7/gm)
33 (1.65/gm)
505 (25.2/gm)
746 (37.3/gm)
530 (26.5/gm)
98 (4.9/gm)
0 of 20
Tracking profile
2025 season · percentile = the share of the 32 qualified players (8+ tracked games) this player is above on the raw number · these are style and situation measures, so a high bar means more of the thing, not better
Completion % above expectation -3.1pts12
Passer rating 89.634
Intended air yards per attempt 7.941
Time to throw 2.79s28
This week's line
Not published on this page yet
What is here. Every record on this page is measured against lines our archive actually recorded, through the end of the 2025 season.
What is not. A current week's number. Our live NFL prop capture covers two markets on a weekly schedule, which is not enough to post a number for every market above, so we post none of them rather than a partial set. When the capture widens, this block fills in and says which week it is reading.
Where these numbers come from
Results. Our own NFL game logs, refreshed weekly from the free nflverse release (nflverse-data, CC BY 4.0), matched to the league schedule for the season, the opponent and the home side. The rates, shares and ranks on this page are our own calculations over that data, not figures the source publishes.
Lines. Our odds archive, 2023 season onward. For each game we take every book's earliest recorded number and publish the median across them, so these are opening lines, never closing ones. Our archive is a fixed-hour grid and cannot honestly claim a close.
Which games count. A game counts only when a line we recorded lines up with a game he actually played, matched through the two clubs in that game. A prop on a player who was later ruled out has no result, so it is not in any denominator here.
Tracking profile. The league's own tracking data for the 2025 season, compared against every player it qualified at his position. The size of that group is printed on the block.
Rosters and listed size. The weekly rosters from the same release (nflverse-data, CC BY 4.0), refreshed daily in season. They supply the club a player is on, his roster status, and the height and weight his club lists him at. The date they were last checked is printed at the top of the matchup section.
On method: every figure here is a count or a rate over completed games, measured against numbers the books actually posted, with its window and its games shown beside it. Small samples are left small and labelled. Nothing here is a pick or a recommendation.
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