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Kenneth Walker III

RB, Kansas City Chiefs. This page is line history: what he did against the number the books posted, game by game, with the window and the sample size printed beside every figure. Records run through the 2025 season.

Data as of 2026-09-07 · team report
Lined games
43
2023-09-10 to 2026-02-08
Markets priced
5
122 graded market-games
Rushing yards, over rate
50%
15-15
30 decided of 30 lined
Games played
46
in our archive window

Rushing yards against the posted line

Last 14 lined games · bar = what he did, number on the bar = the result, dash = the opening line (median of the books quoting it, each book's earliest capture) · teal over, red under
025507510012541vs ARI'24 W1220vs SF'25 W138vs NOW386vs TBW534at JAXW666vs HOUW742at WASW967vs ARIW1071at TENW1256vs MINW1329at ATLW1497at SFW18116vs SFDIV135at NESB

Counts of what happened against a real posted number, not a projection.

Matchup context

The game Kansas City Chiefs plays next · 2025 regular season · rosters checked September 7
Week 1 · Monday, September 14 · 8:15 PM ET
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · grass · outdoor · division game

Walker is with the Chiefs now, and he walks into a more pass-heavy offense: they threw on 59 percent of their plays last season, 6th of 32, against 50 percent and 30th for the Seahawks. He has not played a game for them, so the club figures below are the Chiefs' and his own are what he did with the Seahawks. No one on the Seahawks saw more rushing attempts than Walker in 2025: 221 of the 507 they called in the 17 regular season games he played. He is listed at 5-9 and 210 pounds, shorter than 84 percent of the 197 running backs on a 2026 roster and lighter than 58 percent of them. The 17 defenses on the Chiefs' 2026 schedule gave up 114.6 rushing yards a game last season; the 17 the Seahawks met gave up 113.8.

Rushing matchup

What the defense he meets has given up on the ground, how often his offense runs, and how much of that is his
Denver Broncos defense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Rushing yards allowed per game2nd of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed91.1yds
Rushing attempts faced per game3rd of 32 · 1st = fewest faced23.5att
Yards allowed per rushing attempt3rd of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed3.87yds
Rushing touchdowns allowed per game4th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed0.65TD
Kansas City Chiefs offense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Rushing attempts per game25th of 32 · 1st = most25.3att
Rushing yards per game25th of 32 · 1st = most106.6yds
Pass plays as a share of plays from scrimmage6th of 32 · 1st = most pass-heavy59%
Yards per rushing attempt20th of 32 · 1st = most4.21yds
Kenneth Walker III
2025 regular season · 17 games
Rushing attempts per game13.0att
Rushing yards per game60.4yds
Yards per carry4.65yds
Share of his team's rushing attempts44%
Offensive snap share47%
Pass attempts plus sacks taken, over those plus rushing attempts. A sack is a called pass that never became an attempt, so it counts on the pass side. Kneel-downs sit inside the rushing attempts and cannot be separated out.His carries over his club's, counted across the games he played. Games he missed are in neither total.These are box score totals, not charted by alignment, so there is no split of what a defense gives up to slot receivers, to backs or to any other role. Nothing here claims one.

Receiving matchup

What the defense he meets has given up through the air, how much his offense throws, and how much of that goes to him
Denver Broncos defense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Passing yards allowed per game11th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed212.1yds
Completions allowed per game13th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed20.2
Yards allowed per completion10th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed10.51yds
Passing touchdowns allowed per game4th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed1.06TD
Kansas City Chiefs offense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Pass attempts per game7th of 32 · 1st = most34.4att
Passing yards per game16th of 32 · 1st = most232.2yds
Pass plays as a share of plays from scrimmage6th of 32 · 1st = most pass-heavy59%
Share of passing yards gained after the catch5th of 32 · 1st = highest share53%
Kenneth Walker III
2025 regular season · 17 games
Targets per game2.1
Receptions per game1.8
Receiving yards per game16.6yds
Catch rate86%
Share of his team's targets8%
Offensive snap share47%
Pass attempts plus sacks taken, over those plus rushing attempts. A sack is a called pass that never became an attempt, so it counts on the pass side. Kneel-downs sit inside the rushing attempts and cannot be separated out.His targets over his club's, counted across the games he played. Games he missed are in neither total.These are box score totals, not charted by alignment, so there is no split of what a defense gives up to slot receivers, to backs or to any other role. Nothing here claims one.

Touchdown matchup

Touchdowns the defense he meets has allowed, beside his own offense
Denver Broncos defense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Offensive touchdowns allowed per game2nd of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed1.71TD
Points allowed per game3rd of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed18.3
Kansas City Chiefs offense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Offensive touchdowns per game20th of 32 · 1st = most2.24TD
Rushing plus receiving touchdowns. Return and defensive scores are not in this figure.

Method: per-game figures over the 2025 regular season, with the games behind each one shown on its panel and every 2026 opponent rated on that same season. Clubs and roles move between seasons. Conditions, not forecasts.

Record against the posted line, by market

Every market our archive priced him in at least eight times · the line is each book's opening number, median across the books quoting it · a market we priced fewer times is left off rather than shown with a sample too small to mean anything
MarketLined gamesOver-UnderOver rateAvg lineAvg resultLast line seenWindow
Rushing yards3015-1550% of 3060.064.076.5 (2026-02-08)2023-09-10 to 2026-02-08
Rush attempts138-562% of 1313.615.518.5 (2026-02-08)2023-11-05 to 2026-02-08
Anytime touchdown4116 of 4139%50% implied16 scored, 21 implied65% implied (2026-02-08)2023-09-10 to 2026-02-08
Receiving yards2611-1542% of 2612.513.720.5 (2026-02-08)2023-09-17 to 2026-02-08
Receptions124-833% of 121.831.832.5 (2026-02-08)2023-12-24 to 2026-02-08

Over rate excludes pushes and prints the decided count it is taken over. Whole-number markets (receptions, interceptions) push often, so overs divided by games would read several points off. The touchdown market posts no number at all, only a price, so it is graded as scored or not against the price implied by the books before their margin.

Where that record came from

Rushing yards · every split carries its own sample size, and a small one is left small rather than rounded into a headline
SplitOver-UnderRateAvg linen
All lined games15-1550%60.030
Home9-660%60.115
Away6-940%59.815
2025 season7-654%56.013
2024 season3-350%61.86
2023 season5-645%63.611

Game by game

Rushing yards · last 14 lined games · books = how many had a number up when we captured it
DateOppLineResultGradedBooks
2026-02-08at NE76.5135over7
2026-01-17vs SF51.5116over4
2026-01-03at SF47.597over4
2025-12-07at ATL60.529under1
2025-11-30vs MIN65.556under6
2025-11-23at TEN57.571over4
2025-11-09vs ARI51.567over7
2025-11-02at WAS52.542under6
2025-10-20vs HOU45.566over2
2025-10-12at JAX51.534under7
2025-10-05vs TB51.586over1
2025-09-21vs NO53.538under1
2025-09-07vs SF63.520under1
2024-11-24vs ARI64.541under4

Season totals behind those lines

Our own game logs · totals with the per-game figure beside them · only the quantities the markets above are graded on
SeasonGamesRushing yardsRush attemptsReceiving yardsReceptionsGames with a TD
2025201,340 (67.0/gm)286 (14.3/gm)386 (19.3/gm)40 (2.00/gm)6 of 20
202411573 (52.1/gm)153 (13.9/gm)299 (27.2/gm)46 (4.18/gm)5 of 11
202315905 (60.3/gm)219 (14.6/gm)259 (17.3/gm)29 (1.93/gm)7 of 15

Tracking profile

2025 season · percentile = the share of the 37 qualified players (8+ tracked games) this player is above on the raw number · these are style and situation measures, so a high bar means more of the thing, not better
Rush yards over expected per attempt
0.46
51
Rush yards per attempt
4.83
70
Runs against 8+ in the box
29.0%
62
Time to the line of scrimmage
3.21s
97

This week's line

Not published on this page yet

Where these numbers come from

On method: every figure here is a count or a rate over completed games, measured against numbers the books actually posted, with its window and its games shown beside it. Small samples are left small and labelled. Nothing here is a pick or a recommendation.

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