WR, Minnesota Vikings. This page is line history: what he did against the number the books posted, game by game, with the window and the sample size printed beside every figure. Records run through the 2025 season.
Last 14 lined games · bar = what he did, number on the bar = the result, dash = the opening line (median of the books quoting it, each book's earliest capture) · teal over, red under
Counts of what happened against a real posted number, not a projection.
Matchup context
The game Minnesota Vikings plays next · 2025 regular season · rosters checked September 28
Week 4 · Sunday, October 4 · 4:05 PM ET
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings
U.S. Bank Stadium · sportturf · dome
No one on the Vikings saw more targets than Jefferson in 2025: 141 of the 468 they threw in the 17 regular season games he played. He is listed at 6-1 and 192 pounds, taller than 53 percent of the 350 wide receivers on a 2026 roster and lighter than 63 percent of them. Defensive backs gave him 5.75 yards of cushion at the snap, a tighter cushion than 70 percent of the 67 receivers the league's tracking data qualified in 2025. The 17 defenses on the Vikings' 2026 schedule gave up 226.4 passing yards a game last season; the 17 they met gave up 229.9.
Receiving matchup
What the defense he meets has given up through the air, how much his offense throws, and how much of that goes to him
Miami Dolphins defense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Passing yards allowed per game18th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed230.6yds
Completions allowed per game22nd of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed21.8
Yards allowed per completion11th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed10.57yds
Passing touchdowns allowed per game21st of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed1.71TD
Minnesota Vikings offense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Pass attempts per game28th of 32 · 1st = most28.5att
Passing yards per game30th of 32 · 1st = most188.7yds
Pass plays as a share of plays from scrimmage14th of 32 · 1st = most pass-heavy57%
Share of passing yards gained after the catch15th of 32 · 1st = highest share48%
Justin Jefferson
2025 regular season · 17 games
Targets per game8.3
Receptions per game4.9
Receiving yards per game61.6yds
Catch rate60%
Share of his team's targets30%
Offensive snap share94%
Pass attempts plus sacks taken, over those plus rushing attempts. A sack is a called pass that never became an attempt, so it counts on the pass side. Kneel-downs sit inside the rushing attempts and cannot be separated out.His targets over his club's, counted across the games he played. Games he missed are in neither total.These are box score totals, not charted by alignment, so there is no split of what a defense gives up to slot receivers, to backs or to any other role. Nothing here claims one.
Touchdown matchup
Touchdowns the defense he meets has allowed, beside his own offense
Miami Dolphins defense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Offensive touchdowns allowed per game24th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed2.76TD
Points allowed per game24th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed24.9
Minnesota Vikings offense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Offensive touchdowns per game25th of 32 · 1st = most1.94TD
Rushing plus receiving touchdowns. Return and defensive scores are not in this figure.
Method: per-game figures over the 2025 regular season, with the games behind each one shown on its panel and every 2026 opponent rated on that same season. Clubs and roles move between seasons. Conditions, not forecasts.
Record against the posted line, by market
Every market our archive priced him in at least eight times · the line is each book's opening number, median across the books quoting it · a market we priced fewer times is left off rather than shown with a sample too small to mean anything
Market
Lined games
Over-Under
Over rate
Avg line
Avg result
Last line seen
Window
Receiving yards
40
19-21
48% of 40
79.6
82.6
69.5 (2026-09-27)
2023-09-10 to 2026-09-27
Receptions
22
12-10
55% of 22
5.86
6.05
5.5 (2026-09-27)
2023-09-14 to 2026-09-27
Anytime touchdown
44
15 of 44
34%
46% implied
15 scored, 20 implied
40% implied (2026-09-27)
2023-09-10 to 2026-09-27
Over rate excludes pushes and prints the decided count it is taken over. Whole-number markets (receptions, interceptions) push often, so overs divided by games would read several points off. The touchdown market posts no number at all, only a price, so it is graded as scored or not against the price implied by the books before their margin.
Where that record came from
Receiving yards · every split carries its own sample size, and a small one is left small rather than rounded into a headline
Split
Over-Under
Rate
Avg line
n
All lined games
19-21
48%
79.6
40
Home
12-8
60%
79.8
20
Away
7-13
35%
79.3
20
2026 season
1-2
33%
72.8
3
2025 season
5-9
36%
70.6
14
2024 season
8-6
57%
84.3
14
2023 season
5-4
56%
88.6
9
Game by game
Receiving yards · last 14 lined games · books = how many had a number up when we captured it
Date
Opp
Line
Result
Graded
Books
2026-09-27
at TB
69.5
32
under
6
2026-09-20
at CHI
75.5
55
under
6
2026-09-13
vs GB
73.5
92
over
7
2026-01-04
vs GB
66.5
101
over
1
2025-12-25
vs DET
60.5
30
under
2
2025-12-07
vs WAS
63.5
11
under
1
2025-11-30
at SEA
57.5
4
under
1
2025-11-23
at GB
68.5
48
under
7
2025-11-16
vs CHI
67.5
61
under
4
2025-11-09
vs BAL
75.5
37
under
2
2025-11-02
at DET
73.5
47
under
6
2025-10-23
at LAC
79.5
74
under
4
2025-10-05
at CLE
70.5
123
over
7
2025-09-28
at PIT
78.5
126
over
2
Season totals behind those lines
Our own game logs · totals with the per-game figure beside them · only the quantities the markets above are graded on
Season
Games
Receiving yards
Receptions
Games with a TD
2026
3
179 (59.7/gm)
13 (4.33/gm)
1 of 3
2025
17
1,048 (61.6/gm)
84 (4.94/gm)
2 of 17
2024
18
1,591 (88.4/gm)
108 (6.00/gm)
8 of 18
2023
10
1,074 (107.4/gm)
68 (6.80/gm)
4 of 10
Tracking profile
2025 season · percentile = the share of the 67 qualified players (8+ tracked games) this player is above on the raw number · these are style and situation measures, so a high bar means more of the thing, not better
Separation at the catch point 3.2066
Cushion at the snap 5.7530
Yards after catch above expectation 0.8972
Share of the team's intended air yards 41.1%87
This week's line
Not published on this page yet
What is here. Every record on this page is measured against lines our archive actually recorded, through the end of the 2025 season.
What is not. A current week's number. Our live NFL prop capture covers two markets on a weekly schedule, which is not enough to post a number for every market above, so we post none of them rather than a partial set. When the capture widens, this block fills in and says which week it is reading.
Where these numbers come from
Results. Our own NFL game logs, refreshed weekly from the free nflverse release (nflverse-data, CC BY 4.0), matched to the league schedule for the season, the opponent and the home side. The rates, shares and ranks on this page are our own calculations over that data, not figures the source publishes.
Lines. Our odds archive, 2023 season onward. For each game we take every book's earliest recorded number and publish the median across them, so these are opening lines, never closing ones. Our archive is a fixed-hour grid and cannot honestly claim a close.
Which games count. A game counts only when a line we recorded lines up with a game he actually played, matched through the two clubs in that game. A prop on a player who was later ruled out has no result, so it is not in any denominator here.
Tracking profile. The league's own tracking data for the 2025 season, compared against every player it qualified at his position. The size of that group is printed on the block.
Rosters and listed size. The weekly rosters from the same release (nflverse-data, CC BY 4.0), refreshed daily in season. They supply the club a player is on, his roster status, and the height and weight his club lists him at. The date they were last checked is printed at the top of the matchup section.
On method: every figure here is a count or a rate over completed games, measured against numbers the books actually posted, with its window and its games shown beside it. Small samples are left small and labelled. Nothing here is a pick or a recommendation.
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