RB, Pittsburgh Steelers. This page is line history: what he did against the number the books posted, game by game, with the window and the sample size printed beside every figure. Records run through the 2025 season.
Last 14 lined games · bar = what he did, number on the bar = the result, dash = the opening line (median of the books quoting it, each book's earliest capture) · teal over, red under
Counts of what happened against a real posted number, not a projection.
Matchup context
The game Pittsburgh Steelers plays next · 2026 regular season to date · rosters checked November 14
Week 10 · Sunday, November 15 · 8:20 PM ET
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
Paycor Stadium · fieldturf · outdoor · division game
No one on the Steelers saw more rushing attempts than Warren in 2026: 119 of the 193 they called in the 8 regular season games he played. He is listed at 5-8 and 215 pounds, shorter than 95 percent of the 202 running backs on a 2026 roster and heavier than 55 percent of them. He ran into eight or more defenders in the box on 31.3 percent of his carries, a stacked box more often than 78 percent of the 37 backs the league's tracking data qualified in 2026. The 17 defenses on the Steelers' 2026 schedule gave up 116.5 rushing yards a game last season; the 17 they met gave up 116.5.
Rushing matchup
What the defense he meets has given up on the ground, how often his offense runs, and how much of that is his
Cincinnati Bengals defense
2026 regular season to date · 8 games
Rushing yards allowed per game25th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed126.6yds
Rushing attempts faced per game9th of 32 · 1st = fewest faced25.1att
Yards allowed per rushing attempt32nd of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed5.04yds
Rushing touchdowns allowed per game18th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed1.00TD
Pittsburgh Steelers offense
2026 regular season to date · 8 games
Rushing attempts per game27th of 32 · 1st = most24.1att
Rushing yards per game12th of 32 · 1st = most117.9yds
Pass plays as a share of plays from scrimmage5th of 32 · 1st = most pass-heavy62%
Yards per rushing attempt3rd of 32 · 1st = most4.89yds
Jaylen Warren
2026 regular season to date · 8 games
Rushing attempts per game14.9att
Rushing yards per game88.0yds
Yards per carry5.92yds
Share of his team's rushing attempts62%
Offensive snap share72%
Pass attempts plus sacks taken, over those plus rushing attempts. A sack is a called pass that never became an attempt, so it counts on the pass side. Kneel-downs sit inside the rushing attempts and cannot be separated out.His carries over his club's, counted across the games he played. Games he missed are in neither total.These are box score totals, not charted by alignment, so there is no split of what a defense gives up to slot receivers, to backs or to any other role. Nothing here claims one.
Receiving matchup
What the defense he meets has given up through the air, how much his offense throws, and how much of that goes to him
Cincinnati Bengals defense
2026 regular season to date · 8 games
Passing yards allowed per game23rd of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed248.6yds
Completions allowed per game21st of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed21.8
Yards allowed per completion22nd of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed11.43yds
Passing touchdowns allowed per game6th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed1.12TD
Pittsburgh Steelers offense
2026 regular season to date · 8 games
Pass attempts per game8th of 32 · 1st = most36.2att
Passing yards per game18th of 32 · 1st = most233.9yds
Pass plays as a share of plays from scrimmage5th of 32 · 1st = most pass-heavy62%
Share of passing yards gained after the catch4th of 32 · 1st = highest share60%
Jaylen Warren
2026 regular season to date · 8 games
Targets per game4.5
Receptions per game3.1
Receiving yards per game36.8yds
Catch rate69%
Share of his team's targets13%
Offensive snap share72%
Pass attempts plus sacks taken, over those plus rushing attempts. A sack is a called pass that never became an attempt, so it counts on the pass side. Kneel-downs sit inside the rushing attempts and cannot be separated out.His targets over his club's, counted across the games he played. Games he missed are in neither total.These are box score totals, not charted by alignment, so there is no split of what a defense gives up to slot receivers, to backs or to any other role. Nothing here claims one.
Touchdown matchup
Touchdowns the defense he meets has allowed, beside his own offense
Cincinnati Bengals defense
2026 regular season to date · 8 games
Offensive touchdowns allowed per game9th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed2.12TD
Points allowed per game14th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed21.9
Pittsburgh Steelers offense
2026 regular season to date · 8 games
Offensive touchdowns per game21st of 32 · 1st = most2.12TD
Rushing plus receiving touchdowns. Return and defensive scores are not in this figure.
Method: per-game figures over the 2026 regular season, with the games behind each one shown on its panel and every 2026 opponent rated on that same season. Clubs and roles move between seasons. Conditions, not forecasts.
Record against the posted line, by market
Every market our archive priced him in at least eight times · the line is each book's opening number, median across the books quoting it · a market we priced fewer times is left off rather than shown with a sample too small to mean anything
Market
Lined games
Over-Under
Over rate
Avg line
Avg result
Last line seen
Window
Rushing yards
32
21-11
66% of 32
46.0
62.1
65.5 (2026-11-01)
2023-10-29 to 2026-11-01
Rush attempts
14
7-7
50% of 14
10.3
10.7
12.5 (2026-01-04)
2023-11-02 to 2026-01-04
Anytime touchdown
54
12 of 54
22%
37% implied
12 scored, 20 implied
57% implied (2026-11-01)
2023-09-10 to 2026-11-01
Receiving yards
27
16-11
59% of 27
18.8
24.9
23.5 (2026-11-01)
2023-10-29 to 2026-11-01
Receptions
18
7-11
39% of 18
2.83
2.78
2.5 (2026-11-01)
2023-11-02 to 2026-11-01
Over rate excludes pushes and prints the decided count it is taken over. Whole-number markets (receptions, interceptions) push often, so overs divided by games would read several points off. The touchdown market posts no number at all, only a price, so it is graded as scored or not against the price implied by the books before their margin.
Where that record came from
Rushing yards · every split carries its own sample size, and a small one is left small rather than rounded into a headline
Split
Over-Under
Rate
Avg line
n
All lined games
21-11
66%
46.0
32
Home
12-6
67%
44.8
18
Away
9-5
64%
47.5
14
2026 season
7-1
88%
58.4
8
2025 season
5-4
56%
52.7
9
2024 season
4-3
57%
33.1
7
2023 season
5-3
62%
37.4
8
Game by game
Rushing yards · last 14 lined games · books = how many had a number up when we captured it
Date
Opp
Line
Result
Graded
Books
2026-11-01
vs CLE
65.5
143
over
7
2026-10-25
at NO
63.5
101
over
6
2026-10-18
at TB
58.5
50
under
6
2026-10-11
vs IND
64.5
101
over
5
2026-10-01
at CLE
73.5
93
over
6
2026-09-27
vs CIN
57.5
127
over
4
2026-09-20
at NE
40.5
43
over
6
2026-09-13
vs ATL
43.5
46
over
6
2026-01-04
vs BAL
48.5
66
over
6
2025-11-16
vs CIN
72.5
62
under
7
2025-11-09
at LAC
58.5
70
over
7
2025-11-02
vs IND
50.5
31
under
2
2025-10-16
at CIN
51.5
127
over
7
2025-10-12
vs CLE
49.5
52
over
2
Season totals behind those lines
Our own game logs · totals with the per-game figure beside them · only the quantities the markets above are graded on
Season
Games
Rushing yards
Rush attempts
Receiving yards
Receptions
Games with a TD
2026
8
704 (88.0/gm)
119 (14.9/gm)
294 (36.8/gm)
25 (3.12/gm)
2 of 8
2025
17
1,001 (58.9/gm)
223 (13.1/gm)
337 (19.8/gm)
41 (2.41/gm)
6 of 17
2024
16
517 (32.3/gm)
122 (7.6/gm)
329 (20.6/gm)
42 (2.62/gm)
1 of 16
2023
18
822 (45.7/gm)
157 (8.7/gm)
386 (21.4/gm)
63 (3.50/gm)
4 of 18
Tracking profile
2025 season · percentile = the share of the 37 qualified players (8+ tracked games) this player is above on the raw number · these are style and situation measures, so a high bar means more of the thing, not better
Rush yards over expected per attempt 0.8373
Rush yards per attempt 4.6262
Runs against 8+ in the box 31.3%78
Time to the line of scrimmage 2.84s49
This week's line
Not published on this page yet
What is here. Every record on this page is measured against lines our archive actually recorded, through the end of the 2025 season.
What is not. A current week's number. Our live NFL prop capture covers two markets on a weekly schedule, which is not enough to post a number for every market above, so we post none of them rather than a partial set. When the capture widens, this block fills in and says which week it is reading.
Where these numbers come from
Results. Our own NFL game logs, refreshed weekly from the free nflverse release (nflverse-data, CC BY 4.0), matched to the league schedule for the season, the opponent and the home side. The rates, shares and ranks on this page are our own calculations over that data, not figures the source publishes.
Lines. Our odds archive, 2023 season onward. For each game we take every book's earliest recorded number and publish the median across them, so these are opening lines, never closing ones. Our archive is a fixed-hour grid and cannot honestly claim a close.
Which games count. A game counts only when a line we recorded lines up with a game he actually played, matched through the two clubs in that game. A prop on a player who was later ruled out has no result, so it is not in any denominator here.
Tracking profile. The league's own tracking data for the 2025 season, compared against every player it qualified at his position. The size of that group is printed on the block.
Rosters and listed size. The weekly rosters from the same release (nflverse-data, CC BY 4.0), refreshed daily in season. They supply the club a player is on, his roster status, and the height and weight his club lists him at. The date they were last checked is printed at the top of the matchup section.
On method: every figure here is a count or a rate over completed games, measured against numbers the books actually posted, with its window and its games shown beside it. Small samples are left small and labelled. Nothing here is a pick or a recommendation.
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