QB, Detroit Lions. This page is line history: what he did against the number the books posted, game by game, with the window and the sample size printed beside every figure. Records run through the 2025 season.
Last 14 lined games · bar = what he did, number on the bar = the result, dash = the opening line (median of the books quoting it, each book's earliest capture) · teal over, red under
Counts of what happened against a real posted number, not a projection.
Matchup context
The game Detroit Lions plays next · 2025 regular season · rosters checked September 28
Week 4 · Sunday, October 4 · 8:20 PM ET
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers
Bank of America Stadium · grass · outdoor
Goff threw 578 of the 582 pass attempts the Lions made in the 17 regular season games he played in 2025. He is listed at 6-4 and 217 pounds, taller than 80 percent of the 118 quarterbacks on a 2026 roster and lighter than 61 percent of them. He held the ball 2.70 seconds before throwing, quicker than 88 percent of the 32 passers the league's tracking data qualified in 2025. The 17 defenses on the Lions' 2026 schedule gave up 217.1 passing yards a game last season; the 17 they met gave up 226.7.
Passing matchup
What the defense he meets has given up through the air, how often his offense throws, and what he has done with it
Carolina Panthers defense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Passing yards allowed per game14th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed215.1yds
Pass attempts faced per game6th of 32 · 1st = fewest faced29.8att
Completion rate allowed23rd of 32 · 1st = lowest allowed66.3%
Passing touchdowns allowed per game7th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed1.18TD
Sacks made per game28th of 32 · 1st = most1.76
Interceptions made per game8th of 32 · 1st = most0.88
Detroit Lions offense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Pass attempts per game8th of 32 · 1st = most34.2att
Passing yards per game3rd of 32 · 1st = most268.6yds
Pass plays as a share of plays from scrimmage10th of 32 · 1st = most pass-heavy58%
Sacks taken per game18th of 32 · 1st = fewest2.29
Air yards per pass attempt30th of 32 · 1st = most6.41yds
Jared Goff
2025 regular season · 17 games
Pass attempts per game34.0att
Passing yards per game268.5yds
Completion rate68.0%
Yards per pass attempt7.90yds
Sacks taken per game2.24
Sacks credited to their defenders. It is not always the same count as the sacks their opponents were charged with allowing.Pass attempts plus sacks taken, over those plus rushing attempts. A sack is a called pass that never became an attempt, so it counts on the pass side. Kneel-downs sit inside the rushing attempts and cannot be separated out.These are box score totals, not charted by alignment, so there is no split of what a defense gives up to slot receivers, to backs or to any other role. Nothing here claims one.
Rushing matchup
What the defense he meets has given up on the ground, how often his offense runs, and how much of that is his
Carolina Panthers defense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Rushing yards allowed per game20th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed123.3yds
Rushing attempts faced per game24th of 32 · 1st = fewest faced28.2att
Yards allowed per rushing attempt22nd of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed4.38yds
Rushing touchdowns allowed per game25th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed1.18TD
Detroit Lions offense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Rushing attempts per game21st of 32 · 1st = most26.0att
Rushing yards per game14th of 32 · 1st = most120.1yds
Pass plays as a share of plays from scrimmage10th of 32 · 1st = most pass-heavy58%
Yards per rushing attempt7th of 32 · 1st = most4.62yds
Jared Goff
2025 regular season · 17 games
Rushing attempts per game1.1att
Rushing yards per game2.6yds
Yards per carry2.37yds
Share of his team's rushing attempts4%
Offensive snap share99%
Pass attempts plus sacks taken, over those plus rushing attempts. A sack is a called pass that never became an attempt, so it counts on the pass side. Kneel-downs sit inside the rushing attempts and cannot be separated out.His carries over his club's, counted across the games he played. Games he missed are in neither total.These are box score totals, not charted by alignment, so there is no split of what a defense gives up to slot receivers, to backs or to any other role. Nothing here claims one.
Touchdown matchup
Touchdowns the defense he meets has allowed, beside his own offense
Carolina Panthers defense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Offensive touchdowns allowed per game15th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed2.35TD
Points allowed per game15th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed22.4
Detroit Lions offense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Offensive touchdowns per game3rd of 32 · 1st = most3.29TD
Rushing plus receiving touchdowns. Return and defensive scores are not in this figure.
Method: per-game figures over the 2025 regular season, with the games behind each one shown on its panel and every 2026 opponent rated on that same season. Clubs and roles move between seasons. Conditions, not forecasts.
Record against the posted line, by market
Every market our archive priced him in at least eight times · the line is each book's opening number, median across the books quoting it · a market we priced fewer times is left off rather than shown with a sample too small to mean anything
Market
Lined games
Over-Under
Over rate
Avg line
Avg result
Last line seen
Window
Passing yards
58
38-20
66% of 58
251.5
269.7
259.5 (2026-09-27)
2023-09-07 to 2026-09-27
Interceptions thrown
58
22-36
38% of 58
0.50
0.60
0.5 (2026-09-27)
2023-09-07 to 2026-09-27
Passing touchdowns
55
32-23
58% of 55
1.54
1.96
1.5 (2026-09-27)
2023-09-07 to 2026-09-27
Completions
27
14-13
52% of 27
22.6
23.6
21.5 (2026-01-04)
2023-09-24 to 2026-01-04
Pass attempts
27
16-11
59% of 27
32.7
35.4
32.5 (2026-01-04)
2023-09-24 to 2026-01-04
Anytime touchdown
56
3 of 56
5%
10% implied
3 scored, 5 implied
6% implied (2026-09-27)
2023-09-17 to 2026-09-27
Rushing yards
12
5-7
42% of 12
1.0
4.3
0.5 (2026-09-17)
2023-09-17 to 2026-09-17
Over rate excludes pushes and prints the decided count it is taken over. Whole-number markets (receptions, interceptions) push often, so overs divided by games would read several points off. The touchdown market posts no number at all, only a price, so it is graded as scored or not against the price implied by the books before their margin.
Where that record came from
Passing yards · every split carries its own sample size, and a small one is left small rather than rounded into a headline
Split
Over-Under
Rate
Avg line
n
All lined games
38-20
66%
251.5
58
Home
21-10
68%
252.5
31
Away
17-10
63%
250.3
27
2026 season
2-1
67%
259.5
3
2025 season
11-6
65%
246.2
17
2024 season
12-6
67%
249.2
18
2023 season
13-7
65%
256.9
20
Game by game
Passing yards · last 14 lined games · books = how many had a number up when we captured it
Date
Opp
Line
Result
Graded
Books
2026-09-27
vs NYJ
259.5
269
over
7
2026-09-17
at BUF
257.5
327
over
7
2026-09-13
vs NO
261.5
206
under
6
2026-01-04
at CHI
256.5
331
over
6
2025-12-25
at MIN
240.5
197
under
2
2025-12-21
vs PIT
261.5
364
over
2
2025-12-14
at LA
248.5
338
over
5
2025-12-04
vs DAL
249.5
309
over
6
2025-11-27
vs GB
239.5
256
over
6
2025-11-23
vs NYG
252.5
279
over
7
2025-11-16
at PHI
240.5
255
over
6
2025-11-09
at WAS
248.5
320
over
7
2025-11-02
vs MIN
238.5
284
over
6
2025-10-20
vs TB
248.5
241
under
3
Season totals behind those lines
Our own game logs · totals with the per-game figure beside them · only the quantities the markets above are graded on
Season
Games
Passing yards
Interceptions thrown
Passing touchdowns
Completions
Pass attempts
Rushing yards
Games with a TD
2026
3
802 (267.3/gm)
0 (0.00/gm)
8 (2.67/gm)
77 (25.7/gm)
109 (36.3/gm)
15 (5.0/gm)
0 of 3
2025
17
4,564 (268.5/gm)
8 (0.47/gm)
34 (2.00/gm)
393 (23.1/gm)
578 (34.0/gm)
45 (2.6/gm)
0 of 17
2024
18
4,942 (274.6/gm)
15 (0.83/gm)
38 (2.11/gm)
413 (22.9/gm)
579 (32.2/gm)
63 (3.5/gm)
1 of 18
2023
20
5,412 (270.6/gm)
12 (0.60/gm)
34 (1.70/gm)
484 (24.2/gm)
716 (35.8/gm)
24 (1.2/gm)
2 of 20
Tracking profile
2025 season · percentile = the share of the 32 qualified players (8+ tracked games) this player is above on the raw number · these are style and situation measures, so a high bar means more of the thing, not better
Completion % above expectation 2.2pts62
Passer rating 106.094
Intended air yards per attempt 6.99
Time to throw 2.70s12
This week's line
Not published on this page yet
What is here. Every record on this page is measured against lines our archive actually recorded, through the end of the 2025 season.
What is not. A current week's number. Our live NFL prop capture covers two markets on a weekly schedule, which is not enough to post a number for every market above, so we post none of them rather than a partial set. When the capture widens, this block fills in and says which week it is reading.
Where these numbers come from
Results. Our own NFL game logs, refreshed weekly from the free nflverse release (nflverse-data, CC BY 4.0), matched to the league schedule for the season, the opponent and the home side. The rates, shares and ranks on this page are our own calculations over that data, not figures the source publishes.
Lines. Our odds archive, 2023 season onward. For each game we take every book's earliest recorded number and publish the median across them, so these are opening lines, never closing ones. Our archive is a fixed-hour grid and cannot honestly claim a close.
Which games count. A game counts only when a line we recorded lines up with a game he actually played, matched through the two clubs in that game. A prop on a player who was later ruled out has no result, so it is not in any denominator here.
Tracking profile. The league's own tracking data for the 2025 season, compared against every player it qualified at his position. The size of that group is printed on the block.
Rosters and listed size. The weekly rosters from the same release (nflverse-data, CC BY 4.0), refreshed daily in season. They supply the club a player is on, his roster status, and the height and weight his club lists him at. The date they were last checked is printed at the top of the matchup section.
On method: every figure here is a count or a rate over completed games, measured against numbers the books actually posted, with its window and its games shown beside it. Small samples are left small and labelled. Nothing here is a pick or a recommendation.
Get the weekly projections recap
How our projections did against the market. One email a week, no picks, no spam, unsubscribe anytime.
We store only your email to send the recap. Analytics, not picks. Nothing here is betting advice.