QB, New York Jets. This page is line history: what he did against the number the books posted, game by game, with the window and the sample size printed beside every figure. Records run through the 2025 season.
Last 14 lined games · bar = what he did, number on the bar = the result, dash = the opening line (median of the books quoting it, each book's earliest capture) · teal over, red under
Counts of what happened against a real posted number, not a projection.
Matchup context
The game New York Jets plays next · 2025 regular season · rosters checked September 28
Week 4 · Sunday, October 4 · 1:00 PM ET
New York Jets at Chicago Bears
Soldier Field · grass · outdoor
Smith threw 448 of the 464 pass attempts the Raiders made in the 15 regular season games he played in 2025. He is listed at 6-3 and 221 pounds, taller than 62 percent of the 118 quarterbacks on a 2026 roster and heavier than 58 percent of them. He held the ball 2.80 seconds before throwing, quicker than 66 percent of the 32 passers the league's tracking data qualified in 2025. The 17 defenses on the Jets' 2026 schedule gave up 210.7 passing yards a game last season; the 17 the Raiders met gave up 221.4.
Passing matchup
What the defense he meets has given up through the air, how often his offense throws, and what he has done with it
Chicago Bears defense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Passing yards allowed per game22nd of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed239.2yds
Pass attempts faced per game14th of 32 · 1st = fewest faced31.4att
Completion rate allowed25th of 32 · 1st = lowest allowed66.6%
Passing touchdowns allowed per game28th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed1.88TD
Sacks made per game22nd of 32 · 1st = most2.06
Interceptions made per game1st of 32 · 1st = most1.35
New York Jets offense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Pass attempts per game26th of 32 · 1st = most29.1att
Passing yards per game32nd of 32 · 1st = most163.8yds
Pass plays as a share of plays from scrimmage20th of 32 · 1st = most pass-heavy55%
Sacks taken per game29th of 32 · 1st = fewest3.53
Air yards per pass attempt27th of 32 · 1st = most6.89yds
Geno Smith
2025 regular season · 15 games
Pass attempts per game29.9att
Passing yards per game201.7yds
Completion rate67.4%
Yards per pass attempt6.75yds
Sacks taken per game3.67
Sacks credited to their defenders. It is not always the same count as the sacks their opponents were charged with allowing.Pass attempts plus sacks taken, over those plus rushing attempts. A sack is a called pass that never became an attempt, so it counts on the pass side. Kneel-downs sit inside the rushing attempts and cannot be separated out.These are box score totals, not charted by alignment, so there is no split of what a defense gives up to slot receivers, to backs or to any other role. Nothing here claims one.
Rushing matchup
What the defense he meets has given up on the ground, how often his offense runs, and how much of that is his
Chicago Bears defense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Rushing yards allowed per game27th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed134.5yds
Rushing attempts faced per game18th of 32 · 1st = fewest faced26.9att
Yards allowed per rushing attempt29th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed5.00yds
Rushing touchdowns allowed per game14th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed0.88TD
New York Jets offense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Rushing attempts per game19th of 32 · 1st = most26.8att
Rushing yards per game10th of 32 · 1st = most123.3yds
Pass plays as a share of plays from scrimmage20th of 32 · 1st = most pass-heavy55%
Yards per rushing attempt8th of 32 · 1st = most4.60yds
Geno Smith
2025 regular season · 15 games
Rushing attempts per game2.7att
Rushing yards per game7.3yds
Yards per carry2.66yds
Share of his team's rushing attempts13%
Offensive snap share96%
Pass attempts plus sacks taken, over those plus rushing attempts. A sack is a called pass that never became an attempt, so it counts on the pass side. Kneel-downs sit inside the rushing attempts and cannot be separated out.His carries over his club's, counted across the games he played. Games he missed are in neither total.These are box score totals, not charted by alignment, so there is no split of what a defense gives up to slot receivers, to backs or to any other role. Nothing here claims one.
Touchdown matchup
Touchdowns the defense he meets has allowed, beside his own offense
Chicago Bears defense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Offensive touchdowns allowed per game24th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed2.76TD
Points allowed per game23rd of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed24.4
New York Jets offense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Offensive touchdowns per game29th of 32 · 1st = most1.53TD
Rushing plus receiving touchdowns. Return and defensive scores are not in this figure.
Method: per-game figures over the 2025 regular season, with the games behind each one shown on its panel and every 2026 opponent rated on that same season. Clubs and roles move between seasons. Conditions, not forecasts.
Record against the posted line, by market
Every market our archive priced him in at least eight times · the line is each book's opening number, median across the books quoting it · a market we priced fewer times is left off rather than shown with a sample too small to mean anything
Market
Lined games
Over-Under
Over rate
Avg line
Avg result
Last line seen
Window
Interceptions thrown
50
28-22
56% of 50
0.50
0.82
0.5 (2026-09-27)
2023-09-10 to 2026-09-27
Passing yards
46
21-25
46% of 46
235.6
229.3
223.5 (2026-09-27)
2023-09-10 to 2026-09-27
Passing touchdowns
45
16-29
36% of 45
1.39
1.27
1.5 (2026-09-27)
2023-09-10 to 2026-09-27
Completions
19
8-11
42% of 19
21.9
20.3
19.5 (2025-12-28)
2023-11-30 to 2025-12-28
Pass attempts
19
6-13
32% of 19
33.1
30.3
30.5 (2025-12-28)
2023-11-30 to 2025-12-28
Anytime touchdown
42
3 of 42
7%
15% implied
3 scored, 6 implied
12% implied (2026-09-27)
2023-09-10 to 2026-09-27
Rushing yards
25
11-14
44% of 25
10.4
10.6
7.5 (2026-09-20)
2023-09-10 to 2026-09-20
Rush attempts
8
3-5
38% of 8
2.8
2.8
3.5 (2025-12-28)
2024-09-22 to 2025-12-28
Over rate excludes pushes and prints the decided count it is taken over. Whole-number markets (receptions, interceptions) push often, so overs divided by games would read several points off. The touchdown market posts no number at all, only a price, so it is graded as scored or not against the price implied by the books before their margin.
Where that record came from
Passing yards · every split carries its own sample size, and a small one is left small rather than rounded into a headline
Split
Over-Under
Rate
Avg line
n
All lined games
21-25
46%
235.6
46
Home
10-11
48%
238.7
21
Away
11-14
44%
233.1
25
2026 season
3-0
100%
211.5
3
2025 season
5-8
38%
219.3
13
2024 season
7-9
44%
247.0
16
2023 season
6-8
43%
242.9
14
Game by game
Passing yards · last 14 lined games · books = how many had a number up when we captured it
Date
Opp
Line
Result
Graded
Books
2026-09-27
at DET
223.5
321
over
6
2026-09-20
vs GB
207.5
247
over
7
2026-09-13
at TEN
203.5
215
over
7
2025-12-28
vs NYG
211.5
176
under
1
2025-12-21
at HOU
182.5
201
over
2
2025-12-07
vs DEN
200.5
116
under
7
2025-11-30
at LAC
204.5
165
under
7
2025-11-06
at DEN
212.5
143
under
3
2025-11-02
vs JAX
233.5
284
over
1
2025-10-19
at KC
202.5
67
under
5
2025-10-12
vs TEN
228.5
174
under
1
2025-10-05
at IND
226.5
228
over
1
2025-09-28
vs CHI
252.5
117
under
5
2025-09-21
at WAS
239.5
289
over
1
Season totals behind those lines
Our own game logs · totals with the per-game figure beside them · only the quantities the markets above are graded on
Season
Games
Interceptions thrown
Passing yards
Passing touchdowns
Completions
Pass attempts
Rushing yards
Rush attempts
Games with a TD
2026
3
0 (0.00/gm)
783 (261.0/gm)
4 (1.33/gm)
77 (25.7/gm)
102 (34.0/gm)
36 (12.0/gm)
13 (4.3/gm)
0 of 3
2025
15
17 (1.13/gm)
3,025 (201.7/gm)
19 (1.27/gm)
302 (20.1/gm)
448 (29.9/gm)
109 (7.3/gm)
41 (2.7/gm)
0 of 15
2024
17
15 (0.88/gm)
4,320 (254.1/gm)
21 (1.24/gm)
407 (23.9/gm)
578 (34.0/gm)
272 (16.0/gm)
53 (3.1/gm)
2 of 17
2023
15
9 (0.60/gm)
3,624 (241.6/gm)
20 (1.33/gm)
323 (21.5/gm)
499 (33.3/gm)
155 (10.3/gm)
37 (2.5/gm)
1 of 15
Tracking profile
2025 season · percentile = the share of the 32 qualified players (8+ tracked games) this player is above on the raw number · these are style and situation measures, so a high bar means more of the thing, not better
Completion % above expectation 1.0pts59
Passer rating 86.519
Intended air yards per attempt 6.43
Time to throw 2.80s34
This week's line
Not published on this page yet
What is here. Every record on this page is measured against lines our archive actually recorded, through the end of the 2025 season.
What is not. A current week's number. Our live NFL prop capture covers two markets on a weekly schedule, which is not enough to post a number for every market above, so we post none of them rather than a partial set. When the capture widens, this block fills in and says which week it is reading.
Where these numbers come from
Results. Our own NFL game logs, refreshed weekly from the free nflverse release (nflverse-data, CC BY 4.0), matched to the league schedule for the season, the opponent and the home side. The rates, shares and ranks on this page are our own calculations over that data, not figures the source publishes.
Lines. Our odds archive, 2023 season onward. For each game we take every book's earliest recorded number and publish the median across them, so these are opening lines, never closing ones. Our archive is a fixed-hour grid and cannot honestly claim a close.
Which games count. A game counts only when a line we recorded lines up with a game he actually played, matched through the two clubs in that game. A prop on a player who was later ruled out has no result, so it is not in any denominator here.
Tracking profile. The league's own tracking data for the 2025 season, compared against every player it qualified at his position. The size of that group is printed on the block.
Rosters and listed size. The weekly rosters from the same release (nflverse-data, CC BY 4.0), refreshed daily in season. They supply the club a player is on, his roster status, and the height and weight his club lists him at. The date they were last checked is printed at the top of the matchup section.
On method: every figure here is a count or a rate over completed games, measured against numbers the books actually posted, with its window and its games shown beside it. Small samples are left small and labelled. Nothing here is a pick or a recommendation.
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