WR, Washington Commanders. This page is line history: what he did against the number the books posted, game by game, with the window and the sample size printed beside every figure. Records run through the 2025 season.
Last 14 lined games · bar = what he did, number on the bar = the result, dash = the opening line (median of the books quoting it, each book's earliest capture) · teal over, red under
Counts of what happened against a real posted number, not a projection.
Matchup context
The game Washington Commanders plays next · 2025 regular season · rosters checked September 7
Week 1 · Sunday, September 13 · 4:25 PM ET
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
Lincoln Financial Field · grass · outdoor · division game
Brown is with the Commanders now, and he walks into a more run-heavy offense: they threw on 51 percent of their plays last season, 29th of 32, against 55 percent and 19th for the Jaguars. He has not played a game for them, so the club figures below are the Commanders' and his own are what he did with the Jaguars. Brown was 7th on the Jaguars in targets in 2025, with 37 of the 455 they threw in the 11 regular season games he played. He is listed at 6-0 and 185 pounds, shorter than 62 percent of the 343 wide receivers on a 2026 roster and lighter than 80 percent of them. The 17 defenses on the Commanders' 2026 schedule gave up 230.9 passing yards a game last season; the 17 the Jaguars met gave up 228.1.
Touchdown matchup
Touchdowns the defense he meets has allowed, beside his own offense
Philadelphia Eagles defense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Offensive touchdowns allowed per game7th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed2.00TD
Points allowed per game5th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed19.1
Washington Commanders offense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Offensive touchdowns per game18th of 32 · 1st = most2.29TD
Rushing plus receiving touchdowns. Return and defensive scores are not in this figure.
Method: per-game figures over the 2025 regular season, with the games behind each one shown on its panel and every 2026 opponent rated on that same season. Clubs and roles move between seasons. Conditions, not forecasts.
Record against the posted line, by market
Every market our archive priced him in at least eight times · the line is each book's opening number, median across the books quoting it · a market we priced fewer times is left off rather than shown with a sample too small to mean anything
Market
Lined games
Over-Under
Over rate
Avg line
Avg result
Last line seen
Window
Anytime touchdown
39
4 of 39
10%
15% implied
4 scored, 6 implied
17% implied (2025-11-16)
2023-09-10 to 2025-11-16
Over rate excludes pushes and prints the decided count it is taken over. Whole-number markets (receptions, interceptions) push often, so overs divided by games would read several points off. The touchdown market posts no number at all, only a price, so it is graded as scored or not against the price implied by the books before their margin.
Where that record came from
Anytime touchdown · every split carries its own sample size, and a small one is left small rather than rounded into a headline
Split
Scored
Rate
Avg implied
n
All lined games
4 of 39
10%
15%
39
Home
1 of 20
5%
16%
20
Away
3 of 19
16%
14%
19
2025 season
1 of 7
14%
21%
7
2024 season
2 of 18
11%
17%
18
2023 season
1 of 14
7%
9%
14
Game by game
Anytime touchdown · last 14 lined games · books = how many had a number up when we captured it
Date
Opp
Line
Result
Graded
Books
2025-11-16
vs LAC
17% implied
no
no
1
2025-11-09
at HOU
15% implied
no
no
6
2025-10-19
vs LA
24% implied
no
no
1
2025-10-12
vs SEA
23% implied
no
no
6
2025-09-21
vs HOU
23% implied
no
no
5
2025-09-14
at CIN
23% implied
scored
scored
1
2025-09-07
vs CAR
22% implied
no
no
2
2025-01-26
at PHI
24% implied
no
no
7
2025-01-18
at DET
27% implied
no
no
5
2025-01-12
at TB
19% implied
scored
scored
6
2025-01-05
at DAL
20% implied
no
no
4
2024-12-22
vs PHI
20% implied
no
no
6
2024-12-15
at NO
22% implied
no
no
1
2024-12-01
vs TEN
24% implied
no
no
4
This week's line
Not published on this page yet
What is here. Every record on this page is measured against lines our archive actually recorded, through the end of the 2025 season.
What is not. A current week's number. Our live NFL prop capture covers two markets on a weekly schedule, which is not enough to post a number for every market above, so we post none of them rather than a partial set. When the capture widens, this block fills in and says which week it is reading.
Where these numbers come from
Results. Our own NFL game logs, refreshed weekly from the free nflverse release (nflverse-data, CC BY 4.0), matched to the league schedule for the season, the opponent and the home side. The rates, shares and ranks on this page are our own calculations over that data, not figures the source publishes.
Lines. Our odds archive, 2023 season onward. For each game we take every book's earliest recorded number and publish the median across them, so these are opening lines, never closing ones. Our archive is a fixed-hour grid and cannot honestly claim a close.
Which games count. A game counts only when a line we recorded lines up with a game he actually played, matched through the two clubs in that game. A prop on a player who was later ruled out has no result, so it is not in any denominator here.
Rosters and listed size. The weekly rosters from the same release (nflverse-data, CC BY 4.0), refreshed daily in season. They supply the club a player is on, his roster status, and the height and weight his club lists him at. The date they were last checked is printed at the top of the matchup section.
On method: every figure here is a count or a rate over completed games, measured against numbers the books actually posted, with its window and its games shown beside it. Small samples are left small and labelled. Nothing here is a pick or a recommendation.
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