RB, Atlanta Falcons. This page is line history: what he did against the number the books posted, game by game, with the window and the sample size printed beside every figure. Records run through the 2025 season.
Last 14 lined games · bar = what he did, number on the bar = the result, dash = the opening line (median of the books quoting it, each book's earliest capture) · teal over, red under
Counts of what happened against a real posted number, not a projection.
Matchup context
The game Atlanta Falcons plays next · 2025 regular season · rosters checked September 28
Week 4 · Monday, October 5 · 8:15 PM ET
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Caesars Superdome · sportturf · dome · division game
Robinson was 2nd on the 49ers in rushing attempts in 2025, with 92 of the 481 they called in the 17 regular season games he played. He is listed at 6-1 and 228 pounds, taller than 86 percent of the 201 running backs on a 2026 roster and heavier than 82 percent of them. The 17 defenses on the Falcons' 2026 schedule gave up 118.5 rushing yards a game last season; the 17 the 49ers met gave up 113.0.
Rushing matchup
What the defense he meets has given up on the ground, how often his offense runs, and how much of that is his
New Orleans Saints defense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Rushing yards allowed per game19th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed120.6yds
Rushing attempts faced per game30th of 32 · 1st = fewest faced30.4att
Yards allowed per rushing attempt6th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed3.97yds
Rushing touchdowns allowed per game6th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed0.71TD
Atlanta Falcons offense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Rushing attempts per game12th of 32 · 1st = most28.1att
Rushing yards per game8th of 32 · 1st = most125.8yds
Pass plays as a share of plays from scrimmage21st of 32 · 1st = most pass-heavy54%
Yards per rushing attempt12th of 32 · 1st = most4.48yds
Brian Robinson Jr.
2025 regular season · 17 games
Rushing attempts per game5.4att
Rushing yards per game23.5yds
Yards per carry4.35yds
Share of his team's rushing attempts19%
Offensive snap share17%
Pass attempts plus sacks taken, over those plus rushing attempts. A sack is a called pass that never became an attempt, so it counts on the pass side. Kneel-downs sit inside the rushing attempts and cannot be separated out.His carries over his club's, counted across the games he played. Games he missed are in neither total.These are box score totals, not charted by alignment, so there is no split of what a defense gives up to slot receivers, to backs or to any other role. Nothing here claims one.
Receiving matchup
What the defense he meets has given up through the air, how much his offense throws, and how much of that goes to him
New Orleans Saints defense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Passing yards allowed per game5th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed196.2yds
Completions allowed per game6th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed18.4
Yards allowed per completion13th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed10.69yds
Passing touchdowns allowed per game14th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed1.47TD
Atlanta Falcons offense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Pass attempts per game19th of 32 · 1st = most32.1att
Passing yards per game20th of 32 · 1st = most217.8yds
Pass plays as a share of plays from scrimmage21st of 32 · 1st = most pass-heavy54%
Share of passing yards gained after the catch10th of 32 · 1st = highest share51%
Brian Robinson Jr.
2025 regular season · 17 games
Targets per game0.7
Receptions per game0.5
Receiving yards per game1.5yds
Catch rate67%
Share of his team's targets2%
Offensive snap share17%
Pass attempts plus sacks taken, over those plus rushing attempts. A sack is a called pass that never became an attempt, so it counts on the pass side. Kneel-downs sit inside the rushing attempts and cannot be separated out.His targets over his club's, counted across the games he played. Games he missed are in neither total.These are box score totals, not charted by alignment, so there is no split of what a defense gives up to slot receivers, to backs or to any other role. Nothing here claims one.
Touchdown matchup
Touchdowns the defense he meets has allowed, beside his own offense
New Orleans Saints defense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Offensive touchdowns allowed per game10th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed2.18TD
Points allowed per game16th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed22.5
Atlanta Falcons offense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Offensive touchdowns per game23rd of 32 · 1st = most2.12TD
Rushing plus receiving touchdowns. Return and defensive scores are not in this figure.
Method: per-game figures over the 2025 regular season, with the games behind each one shown on its panel and every 2026 opponent rated on that same season. Clubs and roles move between seasons. Conditions, not forecasts.
Record against the posted line, by market
Every market our archive priced him in at least eight times · the line is each book's opening number, median across the books quoting it · a market we priced fewer times is left off rather than shown with a sample too small to mean anything
Market
Lined games
Over-Under
Over rate
Avg line
Avg result
Last line seen
Window
Rushing yards
27
13-14
48% of 27
46.3
46.5
22.5 (2026-09-24)
2023-09-10 to 2026-09-24
Rush attempts
9
7-2
78% of 9
10.6
13.0
4.5 (2025-11-16)
2023-11-05 to 2025-11-16
Anytime touchdown
49
18 of 49
37%
36% implied
18 scored, 17 implied
19% implied (2026-09-24)
2023-09-10 to 2026-09-24
Receiving yards
10
3-7
30% of 10
7.1
9.1
0.5 (2025-11-16)
2023-10-01 to 2025-11-16
Over rate excludes pushes and prints the decided count it is taken over. Whole-number markets (receptions, interceptions) push often, so overs divided by games would read several points off. The touchdown market posts no number at all, only a price, so it is graded as scored or not against the price implied by the books before their margin.
Where that record came from
Rushing yards · every split carries its own sample size, and a small one is left small rather than rounded into a headline
Split
Over-Under
Rate
Avg line
n
All lined games
13-14
48%
46.3
27
Home
6-4
60%
53.0
10
Away
7-10
41%
42.3
17
2026 season
3-0
100%
23.2
3
2025 season
1-1
50%
16.5
2
2024 season
2-8
20%
53.4
10
2023 season
7-5
58%
51.1
12
Game by game
Rushing yards · last 14 lined games · books = how many had a number up when we captured it
Date
Opp
Line
Result
Graded
Books
2026-09-24
at GB
22.5
50
over
6
2026-09-20
vs CAR
25.5
51
over
6
2026-09-13
at PIT
21.5
31
over
6
2025-11-16
at ARI
17.5
24
over
1
2025-10-02
at LA
15.5
12
under
5
2025-01-26
at PHI
36.5
36
under
6
2025-01-18
at DET
36.5
77
over
4
2025-01-12
at TB
45.5
16
under
6
2024-12-29
vs ATL
64.5
60
under
4
2024-12-22
vs PHI
58.5
24
under
6
2024-12-15
at NO
76.5
65
under
6
2024-11-24
vs DAL
69.5
13
under
5
2024-09-23
at CIN
51.5
33
under
5
2024-09-15
vs NYG
52.5
133
over
5
Season totals behind those lines
Our own game logs · totals with the per-game figure beside them · only the quantities the markets above are graded on
Season
Games
Rushing yards
Rush attempts
Receiving yards
Games with a TD
2026
3
132 (44.0/gm)
30 (10.0/gm)
16 (5.3/gm)
1 of 3
2025
19
404 (21.3/gm)
95 (5.0/gm)
28 (1.5/gm)
2 of 19
2024
17
928 (54.6/gm)
223 (13.1/gm)
181 (10.6/gm)
8 of 17
2023
15
733 (48.9/gm)
178 (11.9/gm)
368 (24.5/gm)
8 of 15
This week's line
Not published on this page yet
What is here. Every record on this page is measured against lines our archive actually recorded, through the end of the 2025 season.
What is not. A current week's number. Our live NFL prop capture covers two markets on a weekly schedule, which is not enough to post a number for every market above, so we post none of them rather than a partial set. When the capture widens, this block fills in and says which week it is reading.
Where these numbers come from
Results. Our own NFL game logs, refreshed weekly from the free nflverse release (nflverse-data, CC BY 4.0), matched to the league schedule for the season, the opponent and the home side. The rates, shares and ranks on this page are our own calculations over that data, not figures the source publishes.
Lines. Our odds archive, 2023 season onward. For each game we take every book's earliest recorded number and publish the median across them, so these are opening lines, never closing ones. Our archive is a fixed-hour grid and cannot honestly claim a close.
Which games count. A game counts only when a line we recorded lines up with a game he actually played, matched through the two clubs in that game. A prop on a player who was later ruled out has no result, so it is not in any denominator here.
Rosters and listed size. The weekly rosters from the same release (nflverse-data, CC BY 4.0), refreshed daily in season. They supply the club a player is on, his roster status, and the height and weight his club lists him at. The date they were last checked is printed at the top of the matchup section.
On method: every figure here is a count or a rate over completed games, measured against numbers the books actually posted, with its window and its games shown beside it. Small samples are left small and labelled. Nothing here is a pick or a recommendation.
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