QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This page is line history: what he did against the number the books posted, game by game, with the window and the sample size printed beside every figure. Records run through the 2025 season.
Every market our archive priced him in at least eight times · the line is each book's opening number, median across the books quoting it · a market we priced fewer times is left off rather than shown with a sample too small to mean anything
Market
Lined games
Over-Under
Over rate
Avg line
Avg result
Last line seen
Window
Interceptions thrown
54
29-25
54% of 54
0.50
0.72
0.5 (2026-01-03)
2023-09-10 to 2026-01-03
Passing touchdowns
51
30-21
59% of 51
1.50
1.88
1.5 (2026-01-03)
2023-09-17 to 2026-01-03
Passing yards
50
27-23
54% of 50
234.6
246.7
222.5 (2026-01-03)
2023-09-17 to 2026-01-03
Completions
24
8-16
33% of 24
21.4
19.3
21.5 (2026-01-03)
2023-09-25 to 2026-01-03
Pass attempts
24
8-16
33% of 24
32.5
30.3
33.5 (2026-01-03)
2023-09-25 to 2026-01-03
Anytime touchdown
51
4 of 51
8%
16% implied
4 scored, 8 implied
12% implied (2026-01-03)
2023-09-10 to 2026-01-03
Rushing yards
31
15-16
48% of 31
12.4
16.0
15.5 (2025-11-09)
2023-09-17 to 2025-11-09
Rush attempts
10
5-5
50% of 10
3.3
3.5
2.5 (2025-11-16)
2023-10-15 to 2025-11-16
Over rate excludes pushes and prints the decided count it is taken over. Whole-number markets (receptions, interceptions) push often, so overs divided by games would read several points off. The touchdown market posts no number at all, only a price, so it is graded as scored or not against the price implied by the books before their margin.
Passing yards against the posted line
Last 14 lined games · bar = what he did, dash = the opening line (median of the books quoting it, each book's earliest capture) · teal over, red under
Counts of what happened against a real posted number, not a projection.
Where that record came from
Passing yards · every split carries its own sample size, and a small one is left small rather than rounded into a headline
Split
Over-Under
Rate
Avg line
n
All lined games
27-23
54%
234.6
50
Home
16-10
62%
234.4
26
Away
11-13
46%
234.8
24
2025 season
6-11
35%
232.1
17
2024 season
10-6
62%
241.9
16
2023 season
11-6
65%
230.3
17
Game by game
Passing yards · last 14 lined games · books = how many had a number up when we captured it
Date
Opp
Line
Result
Graded
Books
2026-01-03
vs CAR
222.5
203
under
1
2025-12-28
at MIA
225.5
346
over
1
2025-12-21
at CAR
228.5
145
under
1
2025-12-11
vs ATL
213.5
277
over
1
2025-12-07
vs NO
216.5
122
under
1
2025-11-30
vs ARI
230.5
194
under
7
2025-11-23
at LA
240.5
41
under
7
2025-11-16
at BUF
239.5
173
under
1
2025-11-09
vs NE
246.5
273
over
7
2025-10-26
at NO
245.5
152
under
5
2025-10-20
at DET
234.5
228
under
3
2025-10-12
vs SF
235.5
256
over
2
2025-10-05
at SEA
230.5
379
over
1
2025-09-28
vs PHI
222.5
289
over
7
Season totals behind those lines
Our own game logs · totals with the per-game figure beside them · only the quantities the markets above are graded on
Season
Games
Interceptions thrown
Passing touchdowns
Passing yards
Completions
Pass attempts
Rushing yards
Rush attempts
Games with a TD
2025
17
11 (0.65/gm)
26 (1.53/gm)
3,693 (217.2/gm)
343 (20.2/gm)
543 (31.9/gm)
382 (22.5/gm)
55 (3.2/gm)
1 of 17
2024
18
16 (0.89/gm)
43 (2.39/gm)
4,685 (260.3/gm)
422 (23.4/gm)
588 (32.7/gm)
401 (22.3/gm)
67 (3.7/gm)
3 of 18
2023
19
12 (0.63/gm)
34 (1.79/gm)
4,730 (248.9/gm)
412 (21.7/gm)
643 (33.8/gm)
194 (10.2/gm)
66 (3.5/gm)
1 of 19
Tracking profile
2025 season · percentile = the share of the 32 qualified players (8+ tracked games) this player is above on the raw number · these are style and situation measures, so a high bar means more of the thing, not better
Completion % above expectation -1.8pts31
Passer rating 89.841
Intended air yards per attempt 8.156
Time to throw 2.84s50
Next scheduled game
2026-09-13 · away · 2026 season
TB at CIN
From our own schedule table. Schedules move; this is what the feed says today.
This week's line
Not published on this page yet
What is here. Every record on this page is measured against lines our archive actually recorded, through the end of the 2025 season.
What is not. A current week's number. Our live NFL prop capture covers two markets on a weekly schedule, which is not enough to post a number for every market above, so we post none of them rather than a partial set. When the capture widens, this block fills in and says which week it is reading.
Where these numbers come from
Results. Our own NFL game logs, refreshed weekly from the free nflverse release, joined to our schedule table for the season, the opponent and the home side.
Lines. Our odds archive, 2023 season onward. For each game we take every book's earliest recorded number and publish the median across them, so these are opening lines, never closing ones. Our archive is a fixed-hour grid and cannot honestly claim a close.
Which games count. A game counts only when a line we recorded lines up with a game he actually played, matched through the two clubs in that game. A prop on a player who was later ruled out has no result, so it is not in any denominator here.
Tracking profile. The league's own tracking data for the 2025 season, compared against every qualified player in the same table. The universe size is printed on the block.
Information, not betting advice. This page reports what happened against real posted numbers, with windows and sample sizes attached. Small samples are labeled with their n so you can weigh them accordingly. No picks, no recommendations.
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