QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This page is line history: what he did against the number the books posted, game by game, with the window and the sample size printed beside every figure. Records run through the 2025 season.
Last 14 lined games · bar = what he did, number on the bar = the result, dash = the opening line (median of the books quoting it, each book's earliest capture) · teal over, red under
Counts of what happened against a real posted number, not a projection.
Matchup context
The game Tampa Bay Buccaneers plays next · 2025 regular season · rosters checked September 28
Week 4 · Sunday, October 4 · 1:00 PM ET
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Raymond James Stadium · grass · outdoor
Mayfield threw 543 of the 558 pass attempts the Buccaneers made in the 17 regular season games he played in 2025. He is listed at 6-1 and 215 pounds, shorter than 83 percent of the 118 quarterbacks on a 2026 roster and lighter than 71 percent of them. He held the ball 2.84 seconds before throwing, longer than 50 percent of the 32 passers the league's tracking data qualified in 2025. The 17 defenses on the Buccaneers' 2026 schedule gave up 222.2 passing yards a game last season; the 17 they met gave up 216.4.
Passing matchup
What the defense he meets has given up through the air, how often his offense throws, and what he has done with it
Green Bay Packers defense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Passing yards allowed per game10th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed206.8yds
Pass attempts faced per game19th of 32 · 1st = fewest faced32.3att
Completion rate allowed22nd of 32 · 1st = lowest allowed65.6%
Passing touchdowns allowed per game12th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed1.41TD
Sacks made per game19th of 32 · 1st = most2.12
Interceptions made per game28th of 32 · 1st = most0.41
Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Pass attempts per game15th of 32 · 1st = most32.8att
Passing yards per game19th of 32 · 1st = most220.9yds
Pass plays as a share of plays from scrimmage17th of 32 · 1st = most pass-heavy56%
Sacks taken per game16th of 32 · 1st = fewest2.24
Air yards per pass attempt13th of 32 · 1st = most8.07yds
Baker Mayfield
2025 regular season · 17 games
Pass attempts per game31.9att
Passing yards per game217.2yds
Completion rate63.2%
Yards per pass attempt6.80yds
Sacks taken per game2.12
Sacks credited to their defenders. It is not always the same count as the sacks their opponents were charged with allowing.Pass attempts plus sacks taken, over those plus rushing attempts. A sack is a called pass that never became an attempt, so it counts on the pass side. Kneel-downs sit inside the rushing attempts and cannot be separated out.These are box score totals, not charted by alignment, so there is no split of what a defense gives up to slot receivers, to backs or to any other role. Nothing here claims one.
Rushing matchup
What the defense he meets has given up on the ground, how often his offense runs, and how much of that is his
Green Bay Packers defense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Rushing yards allowed per game18th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed117.7yds
Rushing attempts faced per game23rd of 32 · 1st = fewest faced28.0att
Yards allowed per rushing attempt12th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed4.20yds
Rushing touchdowns allowed per game14th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed0.88TD
Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Rushing attempts per game14th of 32 · 1st = most27.8att
Rushing yards per game21st of 32 · 1st = most114.5yds
Pass plays as a share of plays from scrimmage17th of 32 · 1st = most pass-heavy56%
Yards per rushing attempt26th of 32 · 1st = most4.12yds
Baker Mayfield
2025 regular season · 17 games
Rushing attempts per game3.2att
Rushing yards per game22.5yds
Yards per carry6.95yds
Share of his team's rushing attempts12%
Offensive snap share97%
Pass attempts plus sacks taken, over those plus rushing attempts. A sack is a called pass that never became an attempt, so it counts on the pass side. Kneel-downs sit inside the rushing attempts and cannot be separated out.His carries over his club's, counted across the games he played. Games he missed are in neither total.These are box score totals, not charted by alignment, so there is no split of what a defense gives up to slot receivers, to backs or to any other role. Nothing here claims one.
Touchdown matchup
Touchdowns the defense he meets has allowed, beside his own offense
Green Bay Packers defense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Offensive touchdowns allowed per game12th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed2.29TD
Points allowed per game11th of 32 · 1st = fewest allowed21.2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense
2025 regular season · 17 games
Offensive touchdowns per game18th of 32 · 1st = most2.29TD
Rushing plus receiving touchdowns. Return and defensive scores are not in this figure.
Method: per-game figures over the 2025 regular season, with the games behind each one shown on its panel and every 2026 opponent rated on that same season. Clubs and roles move between seasons. Conditions, not forecasts.
Record against the posted line, by market
Every market our archive priced him in at least eight times · the line is each book's opening number, median across the books quoting it · a market we priced fewer times is left off rather than shown with a sample too small to mean anything
Market
Lined games
Over-Under
Over rate
Avg line
Avg result
Last line seen
Window
Interceptions thrown
57
31-26
54% of 57
0.50
0.72
0.5 (2026-09-27)
2023-09-10 to 2026-09-27
Passing touchdowns
54
30-24
56% of 54
1.50
1.81
1.5 (2026-09-27)
2023-09-17 to 2026-09-27
Passing yards
53
28-25
53% of 53
233.9
244.3
216.5 (2026-09-27)
2023-09-17 to 2026-09-27
Completions
24
8-16
33% of 24
21.4
19.3
21.5 (2026-01-03)
2023-09-25 to 2026-01-03
Pass attempts
24
8-16
33% of 24
32.5
30.3
33.5 (2026-01-03)
2023-09-25 to 2026-01-03
Anytime touchdown
54
5 of 54
9%
16% implied
5 scored, 9 implied
13% implied (2026-09-27)
2023-09-10 to 2026-09-27
Rushing yards
34
17-17
50% of 34
12.7
16.5
15.5 (2026-09-27)
2023-09-17 to 2026-09-27
Rush attempts
10
5-5
50% of 10
3.3
3.5
2.5 (2025-11-16)
2023-10-15 to 2025-11-16
Over rate excludes pushes and prints the decided count it is taken over. Whole-number markets (receptions, interceptions) push often, so overs divided by games would read several points off. The touchdown market posts no number at all, only a price, so it is graded as scored or not against the price implied by the books before their margin.
Where that record came from
Passing yards · every split carries its own sample size, and a small one is left small rather than rounded into a headline
Split
Over-Under
Rate
Avg line
n
All lined games
28-25
53%
233.9
53
Home
17-11
61%
232.9
28
Away
11-14
44%
235.0
25
2026 season
1-2
33%
222.5
3
2025 season
6-11
35%
232.1
17
2024 season
10-6
62%
241.9
16
2023 season
11-6
65%
230.3
17
Game by game
Passing yards · last 14 lined games · books = how many had a number up when we captured it
Date
Opp
Line
Result
Graded
Books
2026-09-27
vs MIN
216.5
217
over
5
2026-09-20
vs CLE
210.5
182
under
7
2026-09-13
at CIN
240.5
216
under
7
2026-01-03
vs CAR
222.5
203
under
1
2025-12-28
at MIA
225.5
346
over
1
2025-12-21
at CAR
228.5
145
under
1
2025-12-11
vs ATL
213.5
277
over
1
2025-12-07
vs NO
216.5
122
under
1
2025-11-30
vs ARI
230.5
194
under
7
2025-11-23
at LA
240.5
41
under
7
2025-11-16
at BUF
239.5
173
under
1
2025-11-09
vs NE
246.5
273
over
7
2025-10-26
at NO
245.5
152
under
5
2025-10-20
at DET
234.5
228
under
3
Season totals behind those lines
Our own game logs · totals with the per-game figure beside them · only the quantities the markets above are graded on
Season
Games
Interceptions thrown
Passing touchdowns
Passing yards
Completions
Pass attempts
Rushing yards
Rush attempts
Games with a TD
2026
3
2 (0.67/gm)
2 (0.67/gm)
615 (205.0/gm)
61 (20.3/gm)
96 (32.0/gm)
65 (21.7/gm)
11 (3.7/gm)
1 of 3
2025
17
11 (0.65/gm)
26 (1.53/gm)
3,693 (217.2/gm)
343 (20.2/gm)
543 (31.9/gm)
382 (22.5/gm)
55 (3.2/gm)
1 of 17
2024
18
16 (0.89/gm)
43 (2.39/gm)
4,685 (260.3/gm)
422 (23.4/gm)
588 (32.7/gm)
401 (22.3/gm)
67 (3.7/gm)
3 of 18
2023
19
12 (0.63/gm)
34 (1.79/gm)
4,730 (248.9/gm)
412 (21.7/gm)
643 (33.8/gm)
194 (10.2/gm)
66 (3.5/gm)
1 of 19
Tracking profile
2025 season · percentile = the share of the 32 qualified players (8+ tracked games) this player is above on the raw number · these are style and situation measures, so a high bar means more of the thing, not better
Completion % above expectation -1.8pts31
Passer rating 89.841
Intended air yards per attempt 8.156
Time to throw 2.84s50
This week's line
Not published on this page yet
What is here. Every record on this page is measured against lines our archive actually recorded, through the end of the 2025 season.
What is not. A current week's number. Our live NFL prop capture covers two markets on a weekly schedule, which is not enough to post a number for every market above, so we post none of them rather than a partial set. When the capture widens, this block fills in and says which week it is reading.
Where these numbers come from
Results. Our own NFL game logs, refreshed weekly from the free nflverse release (nflverse-data, CC BY 4.0), matched to the league schedule for the season, the opponent and the home side. The rates, shares and ranks on this page are our own calculations over that data, not figures the source publishes.
Lines. Our odds archive, 2023 season onward. For each game we take every book's earliest recorded number and publish the median across them, so these are opening lines, never closing ones. Our archive is a fixed-hour grid and cannot honestly claim a close.
Which games count. A game counts only when a line we recorded lines up with a game he actually played, matched through the two clubs in that game. A prop on a player who was later ruled out has no result, so it is not in any denominator here.
Tracking profile. The league's own tracking data for the 2025 season, compared against every player it qualified at his position. The size of that group is printed on the block.
Rosters and listed size. The weekly rosters from the same release (nflverse-data, CC BY 4.0), refreshed daily in season. They supply the club a player is on, his roster status, and the height and weight his club lists him at. The date they were last checked is printed at the top of the matchup section.
On method: every figure here is a count or a rate over completed games, measured against numbers the books actually posted, with its window and its games shown beside it. Small samples are left small and labelled. Nothing here is a pick or a recommendation.
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