7 sportsbooks price all 32 NFL teams to win the Super Bowl. Their boards carry between 111.03% and 122.13% of implied probability, so raw prices overstate every team's chance. Removing each book's own margin and taking the median across books puts the Los Angeles Rams shortest at 10.49%, captured Oct 13, 2026 at 10:05 AM ET.
Captured Oct 13, 2026 at 10:05 AM ET and rebuilt weekly. For this week's games see the NFL odds board and the per book price grid.
What a futures board actually costs
Add up the implied probabilities on one sportsbook's Super Bowl board and the total is not 100%. On this capture the totals run from 111.03% at BetOnline.ag to 122.13% at FanDuel, a spread of 11.10%. That surplus is the book's margin, spread across 32 teams instead of two, and it is the reason a raw futures price reads richer than the probability behind it.
The table below prints the overround for every book on the board, and the grid after it prints each book's American price beside a consensus probability with that margin taken out. Both numbers come from the same capture.
Licensing is worth reading alongside those totals. The Odds API returns 7 books under its United States region, and that means US-facing, not US-licensed: 4 of them are licensed and operating in regulated US markets and 3 are offshore. The thinnest board among the licensed books is 118.74%; among the offshore books it is 111.03%. We publish no affiliate links and no click-throughs to any of them.
| Book | Licensing | Teams priced | Overround | Margin above 100% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | US licensed | 32 | 122.13% | 22.13% |
| DraftKings | US licensed | 32 | 121.81% | 21.81% |
| Bovada | Offshore | 32 | 119.85% | 19.85% |
| BetRivers | US licensed | 32 | 119.12% | 19.12% |
| BetMGM | US licensed | 32 | 118.74% | 18.74% |
| BetOnline.ag | Offshore | 32 | 111.03% | 11.03% |
| LowVig.ag | Offshore | 32 | 111.03% | 11.03% |
Overround is the sum of that book's own implied probabilities across the 32 teams it prices. A market with no margin would sum to 100%. Licensing is a fact about the book, not a rating: The Odds API's US region returns US-facing books, which is not the same as US-licensed. Same capture, Oct 13, 2026 at 10:05 AM ET.
Every book's price, and the probability behind it
Prices are American odds exactly as the book posted them. Consensus is the median of the 7 devigged probabilities in that row. The shortest price on the board belongs to the Los Angeles Rams at 10.49%; the longest belongs to the Tennessee Titans at 0.08%. Team names link to that team's page.
| Team | Consensus | FanDuel | DraftKings | Bovada | BetRivers | BetMGM | BetOnline.ag | LowVig.ag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 10.49% | +700 | +700 | +700 | +700 | +700 | +750 | +750 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 10.26% | +800 | +700 | +700 | +750 | +750 | +725 | +725 |
| Buffalo Bills | 9.88% | +750 | +800 | +800 | +750 | +750 | +800 | +800 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 9.12% | +750 | +800 | +900 | +800 | +800 | +900 | +900 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 8.39% | +950 | +950 | +900 | +900 | +900 | +900 | +900 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 6.93% | +1100 | +1100 | +1100 | +1000 | +1100 | +1200 | +1200 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 6.82% | +1100 | +1200 | +1100 | +1300 | +1200 | +1200 | +1200 |
| Chicago Bears | 3.97% | +1800 | +2000 | +2000 | +1800 | +1800 | +2200 | +2200 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 3.91% | +2200 | +2000 | +2000 | +2500 | +2200 | +2200 | +2200 |
| Denver Broncos | 3.90% | +2000 | +2000 | +2000 | +2200 | +2000 | +2500 | +2500 |
| Detroit Lions | 3.23% | +2200 | +2600 | +2200 | +2500 | +2500 | +2800 | +2800 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 3.11% | +2700 | +1900 | +2800 | +2500 | +2000 | +2800 | +2800 |
| New England Patriots | 3.11% | +2700 | +2000 | +2800 | +2500 | +2500 | +2800 | +2800 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 2.71% | +2200 | +3000 | +2200 | +3000 | +3000 | +3300 | +3300 |
| Houston Texans | 2.20% | +3500 | +4500 | +3300 | +4000 | +5000 | +4000 | +4000 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 1.78% | +4500 | +4000 | +5000 | +4000 | +4000 | +5000 | +5000 |
| Green Bay Packers | 1.34% | +6000 | +4500 | +6000 | +5000 | +6600 | +6600 | +6600 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 1.25% | +6000 | +6000 | +6500 | +6600 | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 |
| Carolina Panthers | 1.11% | +5000 | +7400 | +5500 | +7000 | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 1.04% | +7000 | +9000 | +7500 | +8000 | +8000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 0.83% | +8000 | +8000 | +12500 | +10000 | +10000 | +12500 | +12500 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.71% | +12500 | +9000 | +12500 | +10000 | +10000 | +12500 | +12500 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.67% | +10000 | +12500 | +12500 | +12500 | +12500 | +12500 | +12500 |
| New York Giants | 0.65% | +12500 | +12500 | +10000 | +12500 | +15000 | +15000 | +15000 |
| Washington Commanders | 0.60% | +12500 | +10000 | +15000 | +12500 | +15000 | +15000 | +15000 |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.60% | +10000 | +15000 | +12500 | +15000 | +15000 | +15000 | +15000 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0.33% | +25000 | +25000 | +22500 | +25000 | +30000 | +30000 | +30000 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0.30% | +22500 | +20000 | +30000 | +20000 | +30000 | +30000 | +30000 |
| New York Jets | 0.18% | +40000 | +30000 | +75000 | +30000 | +50000 | +50000 | +50000 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.08% | +100000 | +50000 | +100000 | +100000 | +100000 | +100000 | +100000 |
| Miami Dolphins | 0.08% | +100000 | +100000 | +100000 | +100000 | +100000 | +150000 | +150000 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.08% | +100000 | +100000 | +100000 | +100000 | +100000 | +150000 | +150000 |
32 teams, 7 books, 224 posted prices, captured Oct 13, 2026 at 10:05 AM ET. Consensus is the median of the 7 books' devigged probabilities for that team, so it is a probability one of those books actually posted once its own margin was removed. The column sums to 99.66% rather than 100%, which is explained below.
Why the consensus column does not add to 100%
Each team's consensus is a median taken across books, and different teams can take their median from different books. Adding 32 of those together gives 99.66% on this capture, not exactly 100%. We print the total we computed rather than rescaling the column, because rescaling would move every figure off a probability a book actually posted in order to make one total look tidy. The residual is the honest size of the disagreement between books.
How this was measured
- Source: our own odds archive, the Super Bowl outright market, captured weekly by a committed script. Exchange lay prices (
outrights_lay) are excluded: a lay quote prices the complement, so including it would make the overround meaningless. - American price to implied probability:
100 / (price + 100)for a positive price,-price / (-price + 100)for a negative one. - Overround: the sum of one book's implied probabilities across the teams it prices. Devigged probability: that book's implied probability divided by its own overround, which is proportional normalisation and is named here because other methods exist and would give different numbers.
- Consensus:
PERCENTILE_DISC(0.5)across the books' devigged probabilities for that team. A discrete median returns a figure some book posted; an interpolated one can return a figure no book's board supports. - This capture: Oct 13, 2026 at 10:05 AM ET, 224 prices across 7 books and 32 teams. The board is captured once a week and this page is rebuilt from the newest capture, so the figures move weekly, not live. Nothing on this page is a closing line.
- Window: we hold 44 full-field weekly captures of this market, the first on Feb 19, 2026. The window starts at Feb 8, 2026, the last completed 2025 NFL playoff game in our results archive, the season before this one. Our vendor reuses one event identifier across championships, so an earlier capture under the same identifier belongs to the previous title and is not counted here.
Next steps
Frequently asked questions
What does overround mean on a Super Bowl board?
It is the sum of one sportsbook's implied probabilities across every team it prices. A market with no margin would sum to 100%. On this capture the 7 books sum to between 111.03% and 122.13%, so between 11.03% and 22.13% of the board is the book's margin.
How is the consensus probability calculated?
Each book's price is converted to an implied probability, divided by that book's own overround to remove its margin, and the median of those devigged figures is taken per team. The median is discrete, so the published number is one a book actually posted after its vig came out.
How often does this page update?
Once a week. The board is captured on a weekly schedule and the page is rebuilt from the newest capture, which was Oct 13, 2026 at 10:05 AM ET. These are not live prices and they are not closing lines.
Does a shorter price mean a team is more likely to win?
A price is what a sportsbook is willing to lay, and it reflects the money the book is taking as well as its view of the season. This page publishes no picks, no selections and no recommended wagers: it prints what each book posted, what that price implies once the margin is removed, and how much margin there was. The 32 teams and 7 books here are the whole board, not a shortlist.
Related: NFL odds board · NFL price grid · Team pages · Track record
Every figure on this page is a historical measurement of what already happened, produced by a committed, re-runnable script over our own odds archive. Past frequencies are not forecasts and are not betting advice: Nebula Insights publishes no picks, no selections and no recommended wagers. You must be of legal gambling age in your jurisdiction.