Week of Oct 19 to 25, 2026 (2026-W43) · model clean_v2 · generated Oct 26, 2026
| Moneyline split | Record | n |
|---|---|---|
| Model's side was the home team | not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=3) | |
| Model's side was the road team | not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=0) | |
| Model's side was the market favorite | not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=3) | |
| Model's side was the market underdog | not scored: no opening price captured for these games (n=0) | |
| Coin-flip calls (50-55%) | not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=2) | |
| Moderate calls (55-65%) | not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=1) | |
| Strongest calls (65%+) | not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=0) | |
| Games with a total under 8.5 | not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=3) | |
| Games with a total 8.5-9.5 | not scored: no opening total captured for these games (n=0) | |
| Games with a total above 9.5 | not scored: no opening total captured for these games (n=0) | |
| Totals split | Our avg miss | Market's | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projection sat above the line | not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=3) | ||
| Projection sat below the line | not scored: no opening total captured for these games (n=0) | ||
| Lines under 8.5 | not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=3) | ||
| Lines 8.5-9.5 | not scored: no opening total captured for these games (n=0) | ||
| Lines above 9.5 | not scored: no opening total captured for these games (n=0) | ||
| Confidence bucket | We said | It happened | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coin-flip calls (50-55%) | not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=2) | ||
| Moderate calls (55-65%) | not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=1) | ||
| Strongest calls (65%+) | not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=0) | ||
TB @ MIL (Oct 23): we had the home side at 57%; the home side won.
One week is a small sample. These are counts of where the results came from, not conclusions about skill; the season-long record is the number that matters.
The point of a public track record is that the misses stay in. Our three largest totals misses this week:
| Game | Projected | Actual | Off by |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB @ MIL | 8.0 | 5 | 3.0 |
| CLE @ TB | 8.4 | 10 | 1.6 |
| TB @ MIL | 8.7 | 9 | 0.3 |
| Game | Proj total | Actual | Miss | Home win% | ML side |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE @ TB | 8.4 | 10 | 1.6 | 0.52 | Hit |
| TB @ MIL | 8.0 | 5 | 3.0 | 0.57 | Hit |
| TB @ MIL | 8.7 | 9 | 0.3 | 0.52 | Hit |
Across 11,972 final regular-season games with a standard run line, the moneyline favorite laying −1.5 covered 42.8% of the time and won outright 58.3%. We publish no run-line projection, because the market prices this one efficiently, so this is the market's record, not ours.
A model-vs-market number only counts games where we captured BOTH our projection and the market's line. Scoring on anything else would quietly flatter the model, so we don't.
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