Week of Oct 12 to 18, 2026 (2026-W42) · model clean_v2 · generated Oct 19, 2026
| Moneyline split | Record | n |
|---|---|---|
| Model's side was the home team | 2–5 | 7 |
| Model's side was the road team | not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=2) | |
| Model's side was the market favorite | 2–4 | 6 |
| Model's side was the market underdog | not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=3) | |
| Coin-flip calls (50-55%) | 2–4 | 6 |
| Moderate calls (55-65%) | not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=3) | |
| Strongest calls (65%+) | not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=0) | |
| Games with a total under 8.5 | 2–7 | 9 |
| Games with a total 8.5-9.5 | not scored: no opening total captured for these games (n=0) | |
| Games with a total above 9.5 | not scored: no opening total captured for these games (n=0) | |
| Totals split | Our avg miss | Market's | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projection sat above the line | 2.5 | 2.5 | 9 |
| Projection sat below the line | not scored: no opening total captured for these games (n=0) | ||
| Lines under 8.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 9 |
| Lines 8.5-9.5 | not scored: no opening total captured for these games (n=0) | ||
| Lines above 9.5 | not scored: no opening total captured for these games (n=0) | ||
| Confidence bucket | We said | It happened | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coin-flip calls (50-55%) | 51.9% | 33.3% | 6 |
| Moderate calls (55-65%) | not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=3) | ||
| Strongest calls (65%+) | not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=0) | ||
League base rates for the same games: home teams went 4–5 (n=9); market favorites went 5–4 (55.6%, n=9); overs went 5–4 against the line (n=9). Every model result above sits inside that backdrop.
The three largest totals misses account for 52.7% of the week's total absolute totals error (11.9 of 22.5 runs across 9 games).
CLE @ TB (Oct 13): we had the home side at 53%; the home side won.
LAD @ MIL (Oct 12): we had the away side at 62%; the home side won. It stays in the record.
One week is a small sample. These are counts of where the results came from, not conclusions about skill; the season-long record is the number that matters.
The point of a public track record is that the misses stay in. Our three largest totals misses this week:
| Game | Projected | Actual | Off by |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE @ TB | 8.5 | 4 | 4.5 |
| TB @ CLE | 8.2 | 4 | 4.2 |
| TB @ CLE | 8.2 | 5 | 3.2 |
| Game | Proj total | Actual | Miss | Home win% | ML side |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE @ TB | 8.5 | 10 | 1.5 | 0.53 | Miss |
| LAD @ MIL | 8.5 | 11 | 2.5 | 0.38 | Miss |
| CLE @ TB | 8.5 | 4 | 4.5 | 0.53 | Hit |
| MIL @ LAD | 8.5 | 8 | 0.5 | 0.57 | Miss |
| TB @ CLE | 8.2 | 5 | 3.2 | 0.48 | Miss |
| TB @ CLE | 7.7 | 5 | 2.7 | 0.52 | Hit |
| MIL @ LAD | 8.5 | 10 | 1.5 | 0.61 | Miss |
| TB @ CLE | 8.0 | 10 | 2.0 | 0.52 | Miss |
| TB @ CLE | 8.2 | 4 | 4.2 | 0.50 | Miss |
Across 11,972 final regular-season games with a standard run line, the moneyline favorite laying −1.5 covered 42.8% of the time and won outright 58.3%. We publish no run-line projection, because the market prices this one efficiently, so this is the market's record, not ours.
Every projection is logged before first pitch, immutably, and graded after the game. Nothing is added or removed later. The misses stay in. A record you can only read forward is the only kind worth trusting.
How our projections did against the market. One email a week, no picks, no spam, unsubscribe anytime.
We store only your email to send the recap. Analytics, not picks. Nothing here is betting advice.