Week of Oct 5 to 11, 2026 (2026-W41) · model clean_v2 · generated Oct 12, 2026
| Moneyline split | Record | n |
|---|---|---|
| Model's side was the home team | 2–3 | 5 |
| Model's side was the road team | 4–2 | 6 |
| Model's side was the market favorite | 5–4 | 9 |
| Model's side was the market underdog | not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=2) | |
| Coin-flip calls (50-55%) | 5–4 | 9 |
| Moderate calls (55-65%) | not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=2) | |
| Strongest calls (65%+) | not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=0) | |
| Games with a total under 8.5 | 6–5 | 11 |
| Games with a total 8.5-9.5 | not scored: no opening total captured for these games (n=0) | |
| Games with a total above 9.5 | not scored: no opening total captured for these games (n=0) | |
| Totals split | Our avg miss | Market's | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projection sat above the line | 3.24 | 2.25 | 10 |
| Projection sat below the line | not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=1) | ||
| Lines under 8.5 | 3.54 | 2.64 | 11 |
| Lines 8.5-9.5 | not scored: no opening total captured for these games (n=0) | ||
| Lines above 9.5 | not scored: no opening total captured for these games (n=0) | ||
| Confidence bucket | We said | It happened | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coin-flip calls (50-55%) | 51.5% | 55.6% | 9 |
| Moderate calls (55-65%) | not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=2) | ||
| Strongest calls (65%+) | not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=0) | ||
League base rates for the same games: home teams went 4–7 (n=11); market favorites went 6–5 (54.5%, n=11); overs went 4–6 against the line (n=11). Every model result above sits inside that backdrop.
The three largest totals misses account for 47.8% of the week's total absolute totals error (18.6 of 38.9 runs across 11 games).
LAD @ ATL (Oct 7): we had the away side at 62%; the away side won.
CWS @ CLE (Oct 5): we had the home side at 55%; the away side won. It stays in the record.
One week is a small sample. These are counts of where the results came from, not conclusions about skill; the season-long record is the number that matters.
The point of a public track record is that the misses stay in. Our three largest totals misses this week:
| Game | Projected | Actual | Off by |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE @ CWS | 7.5 | 14 | 6.5 |
| CWS @ CLE | 8.4 | 2 | 6.4 |
| LAD @ MIL | 8.7 | 3 | 5.7 |
| Game | Proj total | Actual | Miss | Home win% | ML side |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY @ TB | 7.9 | 7 | 0.9 | 0.50 | Miss |
| CWS @ CLE | 7.9 | 7 | 0.9 | 0.55 | Miss |
| LAD @ ATL | 7.7 | 4 | 3.7 | 0.47 | Hit |
| MIL @ SD | 8.1 | 7 | 1.1 | 0.53 | Hit |
| LAD @ ATL | 8.4 | 5 | 3.4 | 0.39 | Hit |
| MIL @ SD | 9.0 | 4 | 5.0 | 0.51 | Miss |
| TB @ NYY | 8.7 | 7 | 1.7 | 0.50 | Miss |
| CLE @ CWS | 8.3 | 12 | 3.7 | 0.50 | Hit |
| CLE @ CWS | 7.5 | 14 | 6.5 | 0.50 | Hit |
| CWS @ CLE | 8.4 | 2 | 6.4 | 0.51 | Hit |
| LAD @ MIL | 8.7 | 3 | 5.7 | 0.46 | Miss |
Across 11,972 final regular-season games with a standard run line, the moneyline favorite laying −1.5 covered 42.8% of the time and won outright 58.3%. We publish no run-line projection, because the market prices this one efficiently, so this is the market's record, not ours.
Our totals number is graded on average miss: |projected runs − actual runs|. In our held-out research backtest the model's MAE is 3.52 runs versus the market's 3.46: we trail by 0.06. We say so plainly.
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