Week of Sep 7 to 13, 2026 (2026-W37) · model clean_v2 · generated Sep 14, 2026
| Moneyline split | Record | n |
|---|---|---|
| Model's side was the home team | 45–21 | 66 |
| Model's side was the road team | 10–8 | 18 |
| Model's side was the market favorite | 39–21 | 60 |
| Model's side was the market underdog | 15–10 | 25 |
| Coin-flip calls (50-55%) | 38–26 | 64 |
| Moderate calls (55-65%) | 16–5 | 21 |
| Strongest calls (65%+) | not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=3) | |
| Games with a total under 8.5 | 31–12 | 43 |
| Games with a total 8.5-9.5 | 26–19 | 45 |
| Games with a total above 9.5 | not scored: no opening total captured for these games (n=0) | |
| Totals split | Our avg miss | Market's | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projection sat above the line | 3.69 | 3.72 | 83 |
| Projection sat below the line | 1.57 | 1.5 | 5 |
| Lines under 8.5 | 3.64 | 3.7 | 43 |
| Lines 8.5-9.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 45 |
| Lines above 9.5 | not scored: no opening total captured for these games (n=0) | ||
| Confidence bucket | We said | It happened | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coin-flip calls (50-55%) | 52.2% | 59.4% | 64 |
| Moderate calls (55-65%) | 58.3% | 76.2% | 21 |
| Strongest calls (65%+) | not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=3) | ||
League base rates for the same games: home teams went 55–33 (n=88); market favorites went 49–36 (57.6%, n=85); overs went 50–34 against the line (n=88). Every model result above sits inside that backdrop.
The three largest totals misses account for 13.7% of the week's total absolute totals error (43.0 of 314.1 runs across 88 games).
COL @ NYY (Sep 8): we had the home side at 72%; the home side won.
HOU @ PHI (Sep 10): we had the home side at 60%; the away side won. It stays in the record.
One week is a small sample. These are counts of where the results came from, not conclusions about skill; the season-long record is the number that matters.
The point of a public track record is that the misses stay in. Our three largest totals misses this week:
| Game | Projected | Actual | Off by |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYM @ MIA | 8.7 | 29 | 20.3 |
| CIN @ MIL | 9.9 | 22 | 12.1 |
| CIN @ MIL | 9.4 | 20 | 10.6 |
| Game | Proj total | Actual | Miss | Home win% | ML side |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC @ MIL | 9.2 | 7 | 2.2 | 0.50 | Miss |
| CLE @ BAL | 8.9 | 10 | 1.1 | 0.54 | Hit |
| LAA @ BOS | 9.2 | 7 | 2.2 | 0.52 | Hit |
| NYM @ MIA | 8.9 | 13 | 4.0 | 0.53 | Miss |
| WSH @ SD | 8.9 | 5 | 3.9 | 0.54 | Hit |
| TOR @ OAK | 9.9 | 11 | 1.1 | 0.53 | Hit |
| STL @ SF | 9.2 | 9 | 0.2 | 0.55 | Hit |
| MIN @ DET | 9.1 | 9 | 0.1 | 0.50 | Miss |
| CIN @ LAD | 9.6 | 9 | 0.6 | 0.50 | Miss |
| ARI @ KC | 8.5 | 9 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Miss |
| ATL @ PHI | 8.5 | 1 | 7.5 | 0.60 | Hit |
| MIN @ DET | 9.2 | 5 | 4.2 | 0.47 | Hit |
| LAA @ BOS | 8.3 | 7 | 1.3 | 0.51 | Miss |
| WSH @ SD | 9.9 | 9 | 0.9 | 0.57 | Hit |
| CLE @ BAL | 9.4 | 14 | 4.6 | 0.52 | Miss |
| NYM @ MIA | 9.0 | 12 | 3.0 | 0.50 | Hit |
| STL @ SF | 8.6 | 3 | 5.6 | 0.53 | Hit |
| CHC @ MIL | 9.1 | 7 | 2.1 | 0.56 | Hit |
| TEX @ SEA | 9.3 | 15 | 5.7 | 0.51 | Miss |
| HOU @ PHI | 8.8 | 11 | 2.2 | 0.56 | Miss |
| COL @ NYY | 9.3 | 8 | 1.3 | 0.72 | Hit |
| TOR @ OAK | 10.6 | 6 | 4.6 | 0.50 | Miss |
| TB @ ATL | 8.8 | 8 | 0.8 | 0.48 | Hit |
| ARI @ KC | 8.5 | 8 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Miss |
| CIN @ LAD | 9.1 | 5 | 4.1 | 0.61 | Hit |
| PIT @ CWS | 9.4 | 12 | 2.6 | 0.50 | Miss |
| ARI @ KC | 8.4 | 7 | 1.4 | 0.50 | Hit |
| COL @ NYY | 10.0 | 7 | 3.0 | 0.67 | Hit |
| TOR @ OAK | 10.3 | 2 | 8.3 | 0.52 | Hit |
| CIN @ LAD | 9.0 | 15 | 6.0 | 0.60 | Hit |
| WSH @ SD | 9.8 | 11 | 1.2 | 0.57 | Hit |
| MIN @ DET | 10.0 | 9 | 1.0 | 0.46 | Miss |
| STL @ SF | 8.7 | 13 | 4.3 | 0.52 | Hit |
| NYM @ MIA | 8.7 | 29 | 20.3 | 0.50 | Hit |
| PIT @ CWS | 9.0 | 6 | 3.0 | 0.50 | Hit |
| LAA @ BOS | 8.8 | 10 | 1.2 | 0.54 | Miss |
| TB @ ATL | 9.5 | 9 | 0.5 | 0.48 | Hit |
| CLE @ BAL | 9.4 | 14 | 4.6 | 0.54 | Hit |
| CHC @ MIL | 8.9 | 14 | 5.1 | 0.57 | Hit |
| TEX @ SEA | 9.7 | 5 | 4.7 | 0.52 | Hit |
| HOU @ PHI | 8.3 | 18 | 9.7 | 0.60 | Hit |
| HOU @ PHI | 8.9 | 3 | 5.9 | 0.59 | Miss |
| TEX @ SEA | 9.0 | 7 | 2.0 | 0.53 | Hit |
| TB @ ATL | 9.2 | 4 | 5.2 | 0.49 | Miss |
| PIT @ CWS | 8.8 | 2 | 6.8 | 0.45 | Hit |
| COL @ NYY | 9.3 | 13 | 3.7 | 0.67 | Hit |
| CIN @ MIL | 9.4 | 20 | 10.6 | 0.55 | Hit |
| CLE @ MIN | 9.2 | 7 | 2.2 | 0.54 | Miss |
| HOU @ TB | 8.5 | 4 | 4.5 | 0.60 | Hit |
| LAA @ WSH | 8.5 | 7 | 1.5 | 0.57 | Hit |
| SD @ SF | 8.9 | 12 | 3.1 | 0.47 | Hit |
| KC @ BOS | 8.8 | 5 | 3.8 | 0.55 | Miss |
| NYM @ NYY | 8.8 | 10 | 1.2 | 0.54 | Hit |
| BAL @ TOR | 8.6 | 11 | 2.5 | 0.54 | Miss |
| CWS @ STL | 9.4 | 10 | 0.6 | 0.52 | Hit |
| PHI @ ATL | 8.2 | 11 | 2.8 | 0.51 | Hit |
| SEA @ OAK | 10.3 | 11 | 0.7 | 0.51 | Hit |
| COL @ DET | 8.9 | 8 | 0.9 | 0.60 | Hit |
| CIN @ MIL | 9.9 | 22 | 12.1 | 0.54 | Hit |
| SD @ SF | 8.6 | 13 | 4.4 | 0.46 | Hit |
| CWS @ STL | 9.5 | 11 | 1.5 | 0.50 | Miss |
| PIT @ CHC | 9.6 | 7 | 2.6 | 0.52 | Hit |
| SEA @ OAK | 9.8 | 20 | 10.2 | 0.51 | Miss |
| HOU @ TB | 8.5 | 5 | 3.5 | 0.55 | Hit |
| CLE @ MIN | 9.2 | 7 | 2.2 | 0.57 | Hit |
| PHI @ ATL | 8.6 | 14 | 5.4 | 0.55 | Hit |
| LAD @ MIA | 8.4 | 7 | 1.4 | 0.44 | Miss |
| BAL @ TOR | 8.5 | 10 | 1.5 | 0.50 | Hit |
| TEX @ ARI | 9.8 | 8 | 1.8 | 0.53 | Miss |
| COL @ DET | 9.7 | 18 | 8.3 | 0.56 | Hit |
| LAA @ WSH | 9.4 | 11 | 1.6 | 0.52 | Hit |
| KC @ BOS | 9.0 | 6 | 3.0 | 0.51 | Hit |
| NYM @ NYY | 9.0 | 14 | 5.0 | 0.59 | Miss |
| PIT @ CHC | 9.6 | 7 | 2.6 | 0.52 | Miss |
| KC @ BOS | 8.2 | 5 | 3.2 | 0.52 | Hit |
| CIN @ MIL | 9.4 | 7 | 2.4 | 0.59 | Miss |
| SEA @ OAK | 10.4 | 15 | 4.6 | 0.54 | Hit |
| NYM @ NYY | 8.4 | 2 | 6.4 | 0.59 | Hit |
| LAA @ WSH | 9.6 | 11 | 1.4 | 0.50 | Hit |
| SD @ SF | 8.5 | 10 | 1.5 | 0.49 | Hit |
| PHI @ ATL | 8.7 | 13 | 4.3 | 0.50 | Miss |
| COL @ DET | 10.2 | 9 | 1.1 | 0.60 | Hit |
| CLE @ MIN | 9.3 | 11 | 1.7 | 0.53 | Miss |
| LAD @ MIA | 8.5 | 10 | 1.5 | 0.45 | Miss |
| CWS @ STL | 9.1 | 4 | 5.1 | 0.50 | Miss |
| HOU @ TB | 8.7 | 18 | 9.3 | 0.54 | Hit |
| TEX @ ARI | 8.8 | 13 | 4.2 | 0.53 | Miss |
| BAL @ TOR | 8.3 | 9 | 0.7 | 0.54 | Hit |
Across 11,972 final regular-season games with a standard run line, the moneyline favorite laying −1.5 covered 42.8% of the time and won outright 58.3%. We publish no run-line projection, because the market prices this one efficiently, so this is the market's record, not ours.
Our totals number is graded on average miss: |projected runs − actual runs|. In our held-out research backtest the model's MAE is 3.52 runs versus the market's 3.46: we trail by 0.06. We say so plainly.
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