Week of Aug 31 to Sep 6, 2026 (2026-W36) · model clean_v2 · generated Sep 7, 2026
| Moneyline split | Record | n |
|---|---|---|
| Model's side was the home team | 19–24 | 43 |
| Model's side was the road team | 13–9 | 22 |
| Model's side was the market favorite | 23–22 | 45 |
| Model's side was the market underdog | 9–10 | 19 |
| Coin-flip calls (50-55%) | 22–26 | 48 |
| Moderate calls (55-65%) | 10–9 | 19 |
| Strongest calls (65%+) | not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=0) | |
| Games with a total under 8.5 | 19–13 | 32 |
| Games with a total 8.5-9.5 | 11–18 | 29 |
| Games with a total above 9.5 | 2–4 | 6 |
| Totals split | Our avg miss | Market's | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projection sat above the line | 3.46 | 3.52 | 61 |
| Projection sat below the line | 2.59 | 2.5 | 6 |
| Lines under 8.5 | 2.81 | 2.97 | 32 |
| Lines 8.5-9.5 | 3.98 | 3.97 | 29 |
| Lines above 9.5 | 3.48 | 3.25 | 6 |
| Confidence bucket | We said | It happened | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coin-flip calls (50-55%) | 51.8% | 45.8% | 48 |
| Moderate calls (55-65%) | 58.4% | 52.6% | 19 |
| Strongest calls (65%+) | not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=0) | ||
League base rates for the same games: home teams went 28–39 (n=67); market favorites went 32–32 (50.0%, n=64); overs went 36–27 against the line (n=67). Every model result above sits inside that backdrop.
The three largest totals misses account for 16.1% of the week's total absolute totals error (36.4 of 226.5 runs across 67 games).
WSH @ LAD (Sep 4): we had the home side at 61%; the home side won.
OAK @ SEA (Sep 4): we had the home side at 60%; the away side won. It stays in the record.
One week is a small sample. These are counts of where the results came from, not conclusions about skill; the season-long record is the number that matters.
The point of a public track record is that the misses stay in. Our three largest totals misses this week:
| Game | Projected | Actual | Off by |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF @ PIT | 9.0 | 25 | 16.0 |
| STL @ LAD | 9.3 | 21 | 11.7 |
| BOS @ BAL | 9.8 | 1 | 8.8 |
| Game | Proj total | Actual | Miss | Home win% | ML side |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF @ PIT | 9.0 | 25 | 16.0 | 0.52 | Hit |
| SEA @ BOS | 8.8 | 15 | 6.2 | 0.52 | Miss |
| NYY @ LAA | 8.3 | 10 | 1.6 | 0.46 | Hit |
| CWS @ HOU | 9.3 | 6 | 3.3 | 0.51 | Miss |
| MIA @ KC | 9.0 | 9 | 0.0 | 0.51 | Miss |
| BAL @ COL | 11.5 | 6 | 5.5 | 0.44 | Miss |
| STL @ LAD | 9.3 | 21 | 11.7 | 0.53 | Miss |
| PHI @ ARI | 8.7 | 8 | 0.7 | 0.44 | Hit |
| NYM @ TB | 8.7 | 8 | 0.7 | 0.52 | Hit |
| MIL @ CHC | 9.7 | 13 | 3.3 | 0.57 | Miss |
| SD @ CIN | 10.3 | 7 | 3.3 | 0.50 | Miss |
| TOR @ CLE | 9.8 | 7 | 2.8 | 0.57 | Hit |
| DET @ MIN | 9.5 | 17 | 7.5 | 0.53 | Hit |
| OAK @ TEX | 9.2 | 13 | 3.8 | 0.60 | Hit |
| ATL @ WSH | 9.7 | 14 | 4.3 | 0.51 | Hit |
| SEA @ BOS | 8.8 | 11 | 2.2 | 0.57 | Miss |
| NYM @ TB | 8.7 | 14 | 5.3 | 0.59 | Miss |
| ATL @ WSH | 9.1 | 9 | 0.1 | 0.50 | Miss |
| BAL @ COL | 11.4 | 11 | 0.4 | 0.46 | Miss |
| CWS @ HOU | 8.8 | 2 | 6.8 | 0.55 | Hit |
| TOR @ CLE | 8.9 | 11 | 2.1 | 0.49 | Hit |
| NYY @ LAA | 8.0 | 9 | 1.0 | 0.46 | Hit |
| MIA @ KC | 9.1 | 15 | 5.9 | 0.52 | Miss |
| SF @ PIT | 9.3 | 9 | 0.3 | 0.50 | Hit |
| OAK @ TEX | 8.5 | 11 | 2.5 | 0.52 | Miss |
| DET @ MIN | 9.1 | 17 | 7.9 | 0.60 | Miss |
| MIL @ CHC | 9.3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0.47 | Hit |
| SD @ CIN | 10.2 | 10 | 0.2 | 0.46 | Miss |
| TB @ TEX | 8.8 | 6 | 2.8 | 0.51 | Hit |
| OAK @ SEA | 9.1 | 11 | 1.9 | 0.53 | Miss |
| STL @ LAD | 8.3 | 5 | 3.3 | 0.60 | Hit |
| BOS @ BAL | 10.0 | 11 | 1.0 | 0.50 | Miss |
| MIL @ CHC | 8.7 | 3 | 5.7 | 0.50 | Miss |
| MIA @ KC | 9.6 | 10 | 0.4 | 0.53 | Hit |
| CWS @ HOU | 9.2 | 8 | 1.2 | 0.56 | Hit |
| TOR @ CLE | 9.6 | 9 | 0.6 | 0.51 | Miss |
| SF @ PIT | 9.0 | 7 | 2.0 | 0.50 | Miss |
| STL @ COL | 11.5 | 13 | 1.5 | 0.48 | Hit |
| NYY @ SD | 8.7 | 5 | 3.7 | 0.48 | Miss |
| ARI @ HOU | 8.9 | 4 | 4.9 | 0.51 | Hit |
| CHC @ MIA | 8.3 | 7 | 1.3 | 0.50 | Miss |
| SF @ NYM | 9.4 | 16 | 6.6 | 0.60 | Hit |
| ATL @ PHI | 7.6 | 7 | 0.6 | 0.50 | Miss |
| DET @ CLE | 9.0 | 7 | 2.0 | 0.57 | Hit |
| OAK @ SEA | 9.4 | 13 | 3.6 | 0.60 | Miss |
| LAA @ PIT | 8.6 | 1 | 7.6 | 0.53 | Hit |
| MIN @ CWS | 10.0 | 5 | 5.0 | 0.46 | Miss |
| TB @ TEX | 9.6 | 13 | 3.4 | 0.50 | Hit |
| BOS @ BAL | 9.8 | 1 | 8.8 | 0.52 | Miss |
| MIL @ CIN | 10.3 | 17 | 6.7 | 0.50 | Hit |
| TOR @ KC | 9.4 | 11 | 1.6 | 0.53 | Miss |
| WSH @ LAD | 8.7 | 8 | 0.7 | 0.61 | Hit |
| ATL @ PHI | 9.0 | 6 | 3.0 | 0.55 | Hit |
| LAA @ PIT | 8.4 | 7 | 1.4 | 0.60 | Miss |
| MIL @ CIN | 10.2 | 8 | 2.2 | 0.50 | Hit |
| DET @ CLE | 8.6 | 6 | 2.6 | 0.59 | Miss |
| MIN @ CWS | 8.8 | 10 | 1.2 | 0.47 | Hit |
| WSH @ LAD | 8.6 | 11 | 2.4 | 0.59 | Hit |
| TB @ TEX | 8.8 | 9 | 0.2 | 0.50 | Miss |
| TOR @ KC | 10.1 | 7 | 3.1 | 0.50 | Miss |
| CHC @ MIA | 8.8 | 11 | 2.2 | 0.50 | Miss |
| NYY @ SD | 9.0 | 6 | 3.0 | 0.50 | Hit |
| SF @ NYM | 9.5 | 14 | 4.5 | 0.59 | Miss |
| ARI @ HOU | 9.1 | 7 | 2.1 | 0.46 | Hit |
| OAK @ SEA | 9.1 | 8 | 1.1 | 0.52 | Miss |
| BOS @ BAL | 9.4 | 5 | 4.4 | 0.50 | Hit |
| STL @ COL | 11.0 | 17 | 6.0 | 0.46 | Miss |
Across 11,972 final regular-season games with a standard run line, the moneyline favorite laying −1.5 covered 42.8% of the time and won outright 58.3%. We publish no run-line projection, because the market prices this one efficiently, so this is the market's record, not ours.
For our moneyline probabilities, Brier squares the gap between the win probability we published and what happened (1 or 0), then averages it. 0.250 is a coin flip; lower is better. Reported live, never smoothed.
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