Week of Aug 24 to 30, 2026 (2026-W35) · model clean_v2 · generated Aug 31, 2026
| Moneyline split | Record | n |
|---|---|---|
| Model's side was the home team | 9–9 | 18 |
| Model's side was the road team | 12–9 | 21 |
| Model's side was the market favorite | 14–14 | 28 |
| Model's side was the market underdog | 6–3 | 9 |
| Coin-flip calls (50-55%) | 19–12 | 31 |
| Moderate calls (55-65%) | 3–6 | 9 |
| Strongest calls (65%+) | not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=0) | |
| Games with a total under 8.5 | 14–9 | 23 |
| Games with a total 8.5-9.5 | 6–9 | 15 |
| Games with a total above 9.5 | not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=2) | |
| Totals split | Our avg miss | Market's | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projection sat above the line | 4.33 | 4.08 | 39 |
| Projection sat below the line | not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=1) | ||
| Lines under 8.5 | 4.55 | 4.17 | 23 |
| Lines 8.5-9.5 | 4.08 | 3.97 | 15 |
| Lines above 9.5 | not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=2) | ||
| Confidence bucket | We said | It happened | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coin-flip calls (50-55%) | 52.3% | 61.3% | 31 |
| Moderate calls (55-65%) | 60.3% | 33.3% | 9 |
| Strongest calls (65%+) | not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=0) | ||
League base rates for the same games: home teams went 19–21 (n=40); market favorites went 17–20 (45.9%, n=37); overs went 18–22 against the line (n=40). Every model result above sits inside that backdrop.
The three largest totals misses account for 16.3% of the week's total absolute totals error (27.8 of 170.5 runs across 40 games).
COL @ WSH (Aug 24): we had the home side at 63%; the home side won.
PHI @ SEA (Aug 25): we had the away side at 62%; the home side won. It stays in the record.
One week is a small sample. These are counts of where the results came from, not conclusions about skill; the season-long record is the number that matters.
The point of a public track record is that the misses stay in. Our three largest totals misses this week:
| Game | Projected | Actual | Off by |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN @ SF | 8.7 | 19 | 10.3 |
| TEX @ CWS | 8.3 | 18 | 9.7 |
| PIT @ SD | 8.7 | 1 | 7.7 |
| Game | Proj total | Actual | Miss | Home win% | ML side |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT @ SD | 8.5 | 5 | 3.5 | 0.50 | Miss |
| PHI @ SEA | 8.8 | 11 | 2.2 | 0.45 | Miss |
| BOS @ MIA | 8.6 | 6 | 2.6 | 0.50 | Hit |
| MIN @ OAK | 10.7 | 15 | 4.3 | 0.46 | Hit |
| TB @ DET | 9.1 | 5 | 4.1 | 0.46 | Hit |
| CIN @ SF | 8.4 | 5 | 3.5 | 0.46 | Miss |
| CHC @ ARI | 10.1 | 7 | 3.1 | 0.50 | Miss |
| TEX @ CWS | 8.8 | 13 | 4.2 | 0.53 | Miss |
| COL @ WSH | 9.5 | 16 | 6.5 | 0.63 | Hit |
| CLE @ LAA | 8.4 | 6 | 2.4 | 0.46 | Hit |
| HOU @ NYY | 9.6 | 16 | 6.4 | 0.60 | Miss |
| BOS @ MIA | 8.2 | 10 | 1.8 | 0.49 | Hit |
| TB @ DET | 10.1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0.39 | Miss |
| CIN @ SF | 8.9 | 4 | 4.9 | 0.52 | Hit |
| MIN @ OAK | 10.2 | 6 | 4.2 | 0.50 | Hit |
| COL @ WSH | 9.1 | 4 | 5.0 | 0.60 | Miss |
| PHI @ SEA | 9.5 | 5 | 4.5 | 0.38 | Miss |
| CLE @ LAA | 8.3 | 14 | 5.7 | 0.47 | Hit |
| KC @ TOR | 9.0 | 8 | 1.0 | 0.50 | Hit |
| MIL @ NYM | 9.0 | 5 | 4.0 | 0.48 | Miss |
| TEX @ CWS | 8.3 | 18 | 9.7 | 0.53 | Hit |
| BAL @ STL | 8.7 | 14 | 5.3 | 0.52 | Miss |
| PIT @ SD | 8.7 | 1 | 7.7 | 0.58 | Miss |
| LAD @ ATL | 9.1 | 7 | 2.1 | 0.46 | Miss |
| CHC @ ARI | 10.1 | 9 | 1.1 | 0.53 | Hit |
| LAD @ ATL | 9.3 | 11 | 1.7 | 0.46 | Miss |
| BAL @ STL | 9.7 | 15 | 5.3 | 0.48 | Hit |
| CHC @ ARI | 9.6 | 2 | 7.6 | 0.51 | Hit |
| TEX @ CWS | 8.7 | 14 | 5.3 | 0.51 | Hit |
| MIL @ NYM | 9.2 | 9 | 0.2 | 0.50 | Hit |
| COL @ WSH | 9.7 | 14 | 4.3 | 0.55 | Miss |
| TB @ DET | 9.9 | 3 | 6.9 | 0.47 | Hit |
| KC @ TOR | 8.9 | 3 | 5.9 | 0.47 | Miss |
| PIT @ SD | 9.4 | 3 | 6.5 | 0.53 | Hit |
| CLE @ LAA | 8.6 | 7 | 1.6 | 0.50 | Hit |
| PHI @ SEA | 8.7 | 6 | 2.7 | 0.39 | Hit |
| MIN @ OAK | 10.6 | 11 | 0.4 | 0.50 | Hit |
| CIN @ SF | 8.7 | 19 | 10.3 | 0.59 | Miss |
| HOU @ NYY | 9.8 | 12 | 2.2 | 0.57 | Hit |
| BOS @ MIA | 8.6 | 4 | 4.6 | 0.48 | Miss |
Across 11,972 final regular-season games with a standard run line, the moneyline favorite laying −1.5 covered 42.8% of the time and won outright 58.3%. We publish no run-line projection, because the market prices this one efficiently, so this is the market's record, not ours.
A model-vs-market number only counts games where we captured BOTH our projection and the market's line. Scoring on anything else would quietly flatter the model, so we don't.
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