MLB Model vs Market: Week in Review (Aug 10 to 16, 2026)

How we did

Graded MLB games, Aug 10 to 16, 2026 · reports, not picks

Games graded

56

2026-W33

Moneyline record

30-26

53.6% higher-prob side

our >50% side won

Moneyline Brier

0.253

vs 0.250 coin flip

lower is better

Totals avg miss

3.47

runs |proj − actual|

56 games

Totals vs market

+0.01

trails market (3.47 vs 3.46)

56 lined games

Where the week's results came from

A fixed set of splits, published every week whether it flatters us or not · slices under n=5 show their count and no rate

Moneyline split	Record	n
Model's side was the home team	20–13	33
Model's side was the road team	10–13	23
Model's side was the market favorite	24–24	48
Model's side was the market underdog	6–2	8
Coin-flip calls (50-55%)	23–16	39
Moderate calls (55-65%)	7–10	17
Strongest calls (65%+)	not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=0)
Games with a total under 8.5	15–14	29
Games with a total 8.5-9.5	13–12	25
Games with a total above 9.5	not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=2)

Totals split	Our avg miss	Market's	n
Projection sat above the line	3.49	3.48	52
Projection sat below the line	not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=4)
Lines under 8.5	3.38	3.36	29
Lines 8.5-9.5	3.4	3.38	25
Lines above 9.5	not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=2)

Confidence bucket	We said	It happened	n
Coin-flip calls (50-55%)	51.5%	59.0%	39
Moderate calls (55-65%)	59.4%	41.2%	17
Strongest calls (65%+)	not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=0)

League base rates for the same games: home teams went 33–23 (n=56); market favorites went 26–30 (46.4%, n=56); overs went 28–28 against the line (n=56). Every model result above sits inside that backdrop.

The three largest totals misses account for 12.1% of the week's total absolute totals error (23.5 of 194.3 runs across 56 games).

Strongest call that landed

COL @ SF (Aug 15): we had the home side at 63%; the home side won.

Final COL 1, SF 7; opening price on that side -190; total 7.5; starter not verifiable for this game.

Strongest call that missed

MIL @ SD (Aug 10): we had the away side at 62%; the home side won. It stays in the record.

Final MIL 2, SD 3; opening price on that side -115; total 7.5; the archived probables started.

One week is a small sample. These are counts of where the results came from, not conclusions about skill; the season-long record is the number that matters.

The biggest misses

We show them on purpose · totals, Aug 10 to 16, 2026

The point of a public track record is that the misses stay in. Our three largest totals misses this week:

Game	Projected	Actual	Off by
SEA @ HOU	8.9	17	8.1
SEA @ NYY	8.8	1	7.8
CIN @ CWS	9.4	17	7.6

Every graded game

Projected total vs. actual, and whether our higher-probability moneyline side won · 56 games

Game	Proj total	Actual	Miss	Home win%	ML side
BAL @ MIN	9.1	14	4.9	0.49	Miss
NYM @ ATL	9.7	13	3.3	0.50	Miss
TB @ OAK	10.2	16	5.8	0.47	Hit
KC @ LAD	8.2	11	2.8	0.60	Hit
MIL @ SD	8.6	5	3.6	0.38	Miss
HOU @ SF	8.8	9	0.2	0.46	Hit
BOS @ TOR	9.1	3	6.1	0.49	Miss
PHI @ STL	9.4	11	1.6	0.50	Hit
TEX @ LAA	8.8	5	3.8	0.50	Hit
BAL @ MIN	9.8	7	2.8	0.51	Miss
CLE @ DET	8.9	10	1.1	0.52	Hit
KC @ LAD	9.1	9	0.1	0.59	Hit
NYM @ ATL	9.0	4	5.0	0.51	Hit
MIL @ SD	9.2	13	3.8	0.46	Miss
CHC @ WSH	10.2	14	3.8	0.46	Hit
BOS @ TOR	8.2	8	0.2	0.50	Hit
TB @ OAK	10.6	16	5.4	0.49	Hit
TEX @ LAA	9.2	5	4.2	0.50	Miss
CIN @ CWS	9.0	9	0.0	0.57	Miss
HOU @ SF	8.6	5	3.6	0.45	Miss
COL @ ARI	10.1	5	5.1	0.57	Miss
SEA @ NYY	8.9	5	3.9	0.55	Hit
PIT @ MIA	8.3	2	6.3	0.52	Hit
PHI @ STL	9.5	2	7.5	0.44	Miss
SEA @ NYY	9.6	15	5.4	0.57	Hit
MIL @ SD	9.1	7	2.1	0.50	Hit
NYM @ ATL	9.4	9	0.4	0.59	Hit
BOS @ TOR	8.7	10	1.3	0.50	Miss
BAL @ MIN	9.3	12	2.7	0.52	Hit
COL @ ARI	9.9	10	0.1	0.60	Miss
PHI @ STL	8.7	8	0.7	0.43	Miss
KC @ LAD	9.3	6	3.4	0.60	Hit
CLE @ DET	9.2	10	0.8	0.59	Miss
CIN @ CWS	9.6	5	4.5	0.51	Hit
CLE @ DET	9.4	3	6.4	0.51	Hit
SEA @ NYY	8.8	1	7.8	0.50	Hit
BOS @ TOR	8.6	7	1.6	0.38	Hit
MIL @ LAD	8.8	9	0.2	0.50	Miss
CHC @ WSH	9.8	7	2.8	0.49	Miss
CIN @ CWS	9.4	17	7.6	0.50	Miss
PIT @ MIA	8.6	14	5.4	0.53	Miss
PHI @ MIN	8.9	8	0.9	0.50	Hit
TEX @ LAA	8.2	7	1.2	0.50	Hit
MIA @ CIN	8.4	1	7.4	0.50	Miss
SEA @ HOU	8.9	17	8.1	0.52	Hit
MIL @ LAD	9.4	4	5.4	0.53	Hit
SD @ CLE	8.2	12	3.8	0.50	Hit
KC @ LAA	8.4	13	4.6	0.52	Miss
NYY @ TOR	8.9	4	4.9	0.38	Miss
COL @ SF	8.7	7	1.7	0.57	Miss
STL @ CHC	8.8	3	5.8	0.53	Hit
BOS @ PIT	8.9	12	3.1	0.49	Miss
WSH @ NYM	9.1	5	4.1	0.52	Hit
STL @ CHC	9.1	12	2.9	0.60	Miss
COL @ SF	8.9	8	0.9	0.63	Hit
CWS @ DET	8.4	7	1.4	0.52	Miss

What the market says

A market we deliberately don't model: the market's own record

MLB run line

42.8% of −1.5 favorites cover

Across 11,972 final regular-season games with a standard run line, the moneyline favorite laying −1.5 covered 42.8% of the time and won outright 58.3%. We publish no run-line projection, because the market prices this one efficiently, so this is the market's record, not ours.

Market benchmark, not a Nebula projection.

One number: Mean absolute error (MAE)

A rotating look at how we grade ourselves

Our totals number is graded on average miss: |projected runs − actual runs|. In our held-out research backtest the model's MAE is 3.52 runs versus the market's 3.46: we trail by 0.06. We say so plainly.

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The full record and the live board

Full track record All insights MLB board How we grade

How we did

Where the week's results came from

The biggest misses

Every graded game

What the market says

One number: Mean absolute error (MAE)

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