Week of Aug 3–9, 2026 (2026-W32) · model clean_v2 · generated Aug 10, 2026
The point of a public track record is that the misses stay in. Our three largest totals misses this week:
| Game | Projected | Actual | Off by |
|---|---|---|---|
| CWS @ BOS | 9.0 | 23 | 14.0 |
| STL @ NYY | 8.6 | 20 | 11.4 |
| TB @ COL | 11.2 | 22 | 10.8 |
| Game | Proj total | Actual | Miss | Home win% | ML side |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL @ NYY | 8.6 | 20 | 11.4 | 0.59 | ✗ |
| SF @ TEX | 9.9 | 6 | 3.9 | 0.49 | ✓ |
| SD @ ARI | 9.9 | 6 | 3.9 | 0.54 | ✓ |
| WSH @ PHI | 9.8 | 9 | 0.8 | 0.56 | ✓ |
| TOR @ HOU | 9.4 | 4 | 5.4 | 0.56 | ✗ |
| PIT @ MIL | 8.9 | 7 | 1.9 | 0.56 | ✗ |
| TB @ COL | 11.2 | 22 | 10.8 | 0.36 | ✓ |
| LAD @ CHC | 8.9 | 15 | 6.1 | 0.56 | ✓ |
| CWS @ BOS | 9.1 | 16 | 6.9 | 0.51 | ✓ |
| SD @ ARI | 10.8 | 13 | 2.2 | 0.53 | ✗ |
| STL @ NYY | 8.8 | 2 | 6.8 | 0.57 | ✓ |
| TOR @ HOU | 9.6 | 9 | 0.6 | 0.52 | ✓ |
| PIT @ MIL | 8.6 | 6 | 2.6 | 0.59 | ✓ |
| MIN @ KC | 9.6 | 10 | 0.4 | 0.50 | ✗ |
| WSH @ PHI | 9.6 | 5 | 4.6 | 0.61 | ✓ |
| MIA @ ATL | 9.3 | 6 | 3.3 | 0.52 | ✓ |
| NYM @ CLE | 8.3 | 8 | 0.3 | 0.50 | ✓ |
| LAD @ CHC | 8.6 | 6 | 2.6 | 0.44 | ✗ |
| OAK @ CIN | 8.9 | 9 | 0.1 | 0.57 | ✓ |
| LAA @ BAL | 9.3 | 4 | 5.3 | 0.52 | ✓ |
| MIA @ ATL | 8.9 | 5 | 3.9 | 0.50 | ✗ |
| SF @ TEX | 9.3 | 6 | 3.3 | 0.51 | ✓ |
| CWS @ BOS | 9.0 | 4 | 5.0 | 0.49 | ✗ |
| SD @ ARI | 10.3 | 14 | 3.6 | 0.46 | ✗ |
| STL @ NYY | 9.2 | 4 | 5.2 | 0.59 | ✗ |
| PIT @ MIL | 8.1 | 6 | 2.1 | 0.53 | ✓ |
| LAD @ CHC | 9.4 | 13 | 3.6 | 0.52 | ✓ |
| OAK @ CIN | 9.3 | 5 | 4.3 | 0.54 | ✓ |
| TOR @ HOU | 9.4 | 9 | 0.4 | 0.62 | ✗ |
| NYM @ CLE | 8.7 | 11 | 2.3 | 0.46 | ✓ |
| WSH @ PHI | 9.7 | 14 | 4.3 | 0.51 | ✗ |
| TB @ COL | 11.8 | 4 | 7.8 | 0.44 | ✓ |
| DET @ SEA | 9.1 | 6 | 3.0 | 0.60 | ✓ |
| MIN @ KC | 9.5 | 3 | 6.5 | 0.52 | ✓ |
| LAA @ BAL | 8.1 | 7 | 1.1 | 0.58 | ✓ |
| NYM @ CLE | 9.3 | 19 | 9.7 | 0.44 | ✓ |
| PIT @ MIL | 8.7 | 7 | 1.7 | 0.57 | ✓ |
| LAA @ BAL | 8.8 | 5 | 3.9 | 0.57 | ✗ |
| MIA @ ATL | 9.1 | 14 | 4.9 | 0.52 | ✓ |
| OAK @ CIN | 9.0 | 11 | 2.0 | 0.60 | ✓ |
| MIN @ KC | 9.2 | 7 | 2.2 | 0.52 | ✗ |
| SD @ ARI | 10.2 | 6 | 4.2 | 0.51 | ✗ |
| TOR @ CHC | 7.6 | 5 | 2.6 | 0.53 | ✓ |
| DET @ SEA | 8.9 | 11 | 2.1 | 0.52 | ✗ |
| WSH @ PHI | 9.8 | 10 | 0.2 | 0.61 | ✓ |
| CWS @ BOS | 9.0 | 23 | 14.0 | 0.53 | ✓ |
| HOU @ SD | 8.6 | 9 | 0.4 | 0.50 | ✗ |
| BAL @ TEX | 9.8 | 3 | 6.8 | 0.53 | ✓ |
| TB @ SEA | 8.6 | 3 | 5.6 | 0.52 | ✗ |
| COL @ STL | 9.1 | 5 | 4.1 | 0.59 | ✓ |
| OAK @ BOS | 8.9 | 14 | 5.1 | 0.59 | ✓ |
| NYM @ PIT | 9.3 | 10 | 0.7 | 0.47 | ✓ |
| CLE @ CWS | 9.1 | 10 | 0.9 | 0.50 | ✗ |
| LAA @ MIA | 8.7 | 7 | 1.6 | 0.60 | ✗ |
| TOR @ PHI | 9.0 | 9 | 0.0 | 0.63 | ✗ |
| ATL @ NYY | 9.0 | 5 | 4.0 | 0.53 | ✓ |
| TOR @ PHI | 9.3 | 12 | 2.7 | 0.64 | ✗ |
| CIN @ WSH | 9.9 | 10 | 0.1 | 0.44 | ✗ |
| LAD @ ARI | 9.5 | 3 | 6.5 | 0.44 | ✓ |
| CLE @ CWS | 8.2 | 9 | 0.8 | 0.50 | ✗ |
| DET @ SF | 8.8 | 8 | 0.8 | 0.50 | ✓ |
| ATL @ NYY | 9.1 | 9 | 0.1 | 0.47 | ✗ |
| LAA @ MIA | 8.7 | 7 | 1.7 | 0.54 | ✓ |
| OAK @ BOS | 9.5 | 10 | 0.5 | 0.59 | ✗ |
| HOU @ SD | 9.0 | 5 | 4.0 | 0.50 | ✓ |
| TB @ SEA | 9.1 | 5 | 4.0 | 0.50 | ✗ |
| COL @ STL | 8.7 | 14 | 5.3 | 0.57 | ✗ |
| MIN @ MIL | 9.2 | 7 | 2.2 | 0.52 | ✓ |
| NYM @ PIT | 9.4 | 9 | 0.4 | 0.50 | ✗ |
| BAL @ TEX | 9.5 | 6 | 3.5 | 0.47 | ✗ |
| CHC @ KC | 9.3 | 9 | 0.3 | 0.46 | ✗ |
| NYM @ PIT | 8.9 | 12 | 3.1 | 0.50 | ✓ |
| LAA @ MIA | 8.7 | 15 | 6.3 | 0.54 | ✓ |
| COL @ STL | 10.0 | 11 | 1.0 | 0.60 | ✓ |
| LAD @ ARI | 9.9 | 6 | 4.0 | 0.50 | ✓ |
| TOR @ PHI | 9.3 | 13 | 3.7 | 0.61 | ✓ |
| CLE @ CWS | 9.0 | 8 | 1.0 | 0.52 | ✓ |
| DET @ SF | 8.5 | 4 | 4.5 | 0.50 | ✓ |
| BAL @ TEX | 9.6 | 15 | 5.4 | 0.52 | ✗ |
| MIN @ MIL | 8.3 | 7 | 1.3 | 0.59 | ✓ |
| CHC @ KC | 9.8 | 12 | 2.2 | 0.38 | ✓ |
| ATL @ NYY | 9.5 | 3 | 6.5 | 0.55 | ✗ |
| CIN @ WSH | 10.0 | 8 | 2.0 | 0.46 | ✗ |
Across 11,969 final regular-season games with a standard run line, the moneyline favorite laying −1.5 covered 42.8% of the time and won outright 58.3%. We publish no run-line projection — the market prices this one efficiently — so this is the market's record, not ours.
For our moneyline probabilities, Brier squares the gap between the win probability we published and what happened (1 or 0), then averages it. 0.250 is a coin flip; lower is better. Reported live, never smoothed.
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