Week of Aug 3 to 9, 2026 (2026-W32) · model clean_v2 · generated Aug 15, 2026
| Moneyline split | Record | n |
|---|---|---|
| Model's side was the home team | 37–22 | 59 |
| Model's side was the road team | 12–12 | 24 |
| Model's side was the market favorite | 40–29 | 69 |
| Model's side was the market underdog | 8–5 | 13 |
| Coin-flip calls (50-55%) | 28–21 | 49 |
| Moderate calls (55-65%) | 21–13 | 34 |
| Strongest calls (65%+) | not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=0) | |
| Games with a total under 8.5 | 20–9 | 29 |
| Games with a total 8.5-9.5 | 26–23 | 49 |
| Games with a total above 9.5 | 3–2 | 5 |
| Totals split | Our avg miss | Market's | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projection sat above the line | 3.48 | 3.28 | 68 |
| Projection sat below the line | 3.36 | 3.4 | 15 |
| Lines under 8.5 | 3.07 | 2.71 | 29 |
| Lines 8.5-9.5 | 3.47 | 3.46 | 49 |
| Lines above 9.5 | 5.53 | 5.2 | 5 |
Reliability: Not shown for this week. The serving calibrator changed on Aug 4 and this window spans that date, so the published probabilities in it come from two different calibrators. Averaging them together would describe neither. The win-loss counts above are unaffected.
League base rates for the same games: home teams went 49–34 (n=83); market favorites went 45–37 (54.9%, n=82); overs went 37–42 against the line (n=83). Every model result above sits inside that backdrop.
The three largest totals misses account for 12.6% of the week's total absolute totals error (36.1 of 287.0 runs across 83 games).
TB @ COL (Aug 3): we had the away side at 64%; the away side won.
TOR @ PHI (Aug 8): we had the home side at 64%; the away side won. It stays in the record.
The serving calibrator changed on Aug 4, inside this window; each game is scored on the probability that was actually served for it.
One week is a small sample. These are counts of where the results came from, not conclusions about skill; the season-long record is the number that matters.
The point of a public track record is that the misses stay in. Our three largest totals misses this week:
| Game | Projected | Actual | Off by |
|---|---|---|---|
| CWS @ BOS | 9.0 | 23 | 14.0 |
| STL @ NYY | 8.6 | 20 | 11.4 |
| TB @ COL | 11.2 | 22 | 10.8 |
| Game | Proj total | Actual | Miss | Home win% | ML side |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL @ NYY | 8.6 | 20 | 11.4 | 0.59 | Miss |
| SF @ TEX | 9.9 | 6 | 3.9 | 0.49 | Hit |
| SD @ ARI | 9.9 | 6 | 3.9 | 0.54 | Hit |
| WSH @ PHI | 9.8 | 9 | 0.8 | 0.56 | Hit |
| TOR @ HOU | 9.4 | 4 | 5.4 | 0.56 | Miss |
| PIT @ MIL | 8.9 | 7 | 1.9 | 0.56 | Miss |
| TB @ COL | 11.2 | 22 | 10.8 | 0.36 | Hit |
| LAD @ CHC | 8.9 | 15 | 6.1 | 0.56 | Hit |
| CWS @ BOS | 9.1 | 16 | 6.9 | 0.51 | Hit |
| SD @ ARI | 10.8 | 13 | 2.2 | 0.53 | Miss |
| STL @ NYY | 8.8 | 2 | 6.8 | 0.57 | Hit |
| TOR @ HOU | 9.6 | 9 | 0.6 | 0.52 | Hit |
| PIT @ MIL | 8.6 | 6 | 2.6 | 0.59 | Hit |
| MIN @ KC | 9.6 | 10 | 0.4 | 0.50 | Miss |
| WSH @ PHI | 9.6 | 5 | 4.6 | 0.61 | Hit |
| MIA @ ATL | 9.3 | 6 | 3.3 | 0.52 | Hit |
| NYM @ CLE | 8.3 | 8 | 0.3 | 0.50 | Hit |
| LAD @ CHC | 8.6 | 6 | 2.6 | 0.44 | Miss |
| OAK @ CIN | 8.9 | 9 | 0.1 | 0.57 | Hit |
| LAA @ BAL | 9.3 | 4 | 5.3 | 0.52 | Hit |
| MIA @ ATL | 8.9 | 5 | 3.9 | 0.50 | Miss |
| SF @ TEX | 9.3 | 6 | 3.3 | 0.51 | Hit |
| CWS @ BOS | 9.0 | 4 | 5.0 | 0.49 | Miss |
| SD @ ARI | 10.3 | 14 | 3.6 | 0.46 | Miss |
| STL @ NYY | 9.2 | 4 | 5.2 | 0.59 | Miss |
| PIT @ MIL | 8.1 | 6 | 2.1 | 0.53 | Hit |
| LAD @ CHC | 9.4 | 13 | 3.6 | 0.52 | Hit |
| OAK @ CIN | 9.3 | 5 | 4.3 | 0.54 | Hit |
| TOR @ HOU | 9.4 | 9 | 0.4 | 0.62 | Miss |
| NYM @ CLE | 8.7 | 11 | 2.3 | 0.46 | Hit |
| WSH @ PHI | 9.7 | 14 | 4.3 | 0.51 | Miss |
| TB @ COL | 11.8 | 4 | 7.8 | 0.44 | Hit |
| DET @ SEA | 9.1 | 6 | 3.0 | 0.60 | Hit |
| MIN @ KC | 9.5 | 3 | 6.5 | 0.52 | Hit |
| LAA @ BAL | 8.1 | 7 | 1.1 | 0.58 | Hit |
| NYM @ CLE | 9.3 | 19 | 9.7 | 0.44 | Hit |
| PIT @ MIL | 8.7 | 7 | 1.7 | 0.57 | Hit |
| LAA @ BAL | 8.8 | 5 | 3.9 | 0.57 | Miss |
| MIA @ ATL | 9.1 | 14 | 4.9 | 0.52 | Hit |
| OAK @ CIN | 9.0 | 11 | 2.0 | 0.60 | Hit |
| MIN @ KC | 9.2 | 7 | 2.2 | 0.52 | Miss |
| SD @ ARI | 10.2 | 6 | 4.2 | 0.51 | Miss |
| TOR @ CHC | 7.6 | 5 | 2.6 | 0.53 | Hit |
| DET @ SEA | 8.9 | 11 | 2.1 | 0.52 | Miss |
| WSH @ PHI | 9.8 | 10 | 0.2 | 0.61 | Hit |
| CWS @ BOS | 9.0 | 23 | 14.0 | 0.53 | Hit |
| HOU @ SD | 8.6 | 9 | 0.4 | 0.50 | Miss |
| BAL @ TEX | 9.8 | 3 | 6.8 | 0.53 | Hit |
| TB @ SEA | 8.6 | 3 | 5.6 | 0.52 | Miss |
| COL @ STL | 9.1 | 5 | 4.1 | 0.59 | Hit |
| OAK @ BOS | 8.9 | 14 | 5.1 | 0.59 | Hit |
| NYM @ PIT | 9.3 | 10 | 0.7 | 0.47 | Hit |
| CLE @ CWS | 9.1 | 10 | 0.9 | 0.50 | Miss |
| LAA @ MIA | 8.7 | 7 | 1.6 | 0.60 | Miss |
| TOR @ PHI | 9.0 | 9 | 0.0 | 0.63 | Miss |
| ATL @ NYY | 9.0 | 5 | 4.0 | 0.53 | Hit |
| TOR @ PHI | 9.3 | 12 | 2.7 | 0.64 | Miss |
| CIN @ WSH | 9.9 | 10 | 0.1 | 0.44 | Miss |
| LAD @ ARI | 9.5 | 3 | 6.5 | 0.44 | Hit |
| CLE @ CWS | 8.2 | 9 | 0.8 | 0.50 | Miss |
| DET @ SF | 8.8 | 8 | 0.8 | 0.50 | Hit |
| ATL @ NYY | 9.1 | 9 | 0.1 | 0.47 | Miss |
| LAA @ MIA | 8.7 | 7 | 1.7 | 0.54 | Hit |
| OAK @ BOS | 9.5 | 10 | 0.5 | 0.59 | Miss |
| HOU @ SD | 9.0 | 5 | 4.0 | 0.50 | Hit |
| TB @ SEA | 9.1 | 5 | 4.0 | 0.50 | Miss |
| COL @ STL | 8.7 | 14 | 5.3 | 0.57 | Miss |
| MIN @ MIL | 9.2 | 7 | 2.2 | 0.52 | Hit |
| NYM @ PIT | 9.4 | 9 | 0.4 | 0.50 | Miss |
| BAL @ TEX | 9.5 | 6 | 3.5 | 0.47 | Miss |
| CHC @ KC | 9.3 | 9 | 0.3 | 0.46 | Miss |
| NYM @ PIT | 8.9 | 12 | 3.1 | 0.50 | Hit |
| LAA @ MIA | 8.7 | 15 | 6.3 | 0.54 | Hit |
| COL @ STL | 10.0 | 11 | 1.0 | 0.60 | Hit |
| LAD @ ARI | 9.9 | 6 | 4.0 | 0.50 | Hit |
| TOR @ PHI | 9.3 | 13 | 3.7 | 0.61 | Hit |
| CLE @ CWS | 9.0 | 8 | 1.0 | 0.52 | Hit |
| DET @ SF | 8.5 | 4 | 4.5 | 0.50 | Hit |
| BAL @ TEX | 9.6 | 15 | 5.4 | 0.52 | Miss |
| MIN @ MIL | 8.3 | 7 | 1.3 | 0.59 | Hit |
| CHC @ KC | 9.8 | 12 | 2.2 | 0.38 | Hit |
| ATL @ NYY | 9.5 | 3 | 6.5 | 0.55 | Miss |
| CIN @ WSH | 10.0 | 8 | 2.0 | 0.46 | Miss |
Across 11,972 final regular-season games with a standard run line, the moneyline favorite laying −1.5 covered 42.8% of the time and won outright 58.3%. We publish no run-line projection, because the market prices this one efficiently, so this is the market's record, not ours.
For our moneyline probabilities, Brier squares the gap between the win probability we published and what happened (1 or 0), then averages it. 0.250 is a coin flip; lower is better. Reported live, never smoothed.
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