Week of Jul 27 – Aug 2, 2026 (2026-W31) · model clean_v2 · generated Aug 3, 2026
The point of a public track record is that the misses stay in. Our three largest totals misses this week:
| Game | Projected | Actual | Off by |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL @ DET | 7.7 | 19 | 11.3 |
| ARI @ CLE | 8.8 | 20 | 11.2 |
| MIL @ SF | 8.5 | 19 | 10.5 |
| Game | Proj total | Actual | Miss | Home win% | ML side |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL @ DET | 8.2 | 13 | 4.8 | 0.43 | ✓ |
| SEA @ TEX | 8.8 | 10 | 1.2 | 0.54 | ✓ |
| PHI @ MIA | 8.2 | 15 | 6.8 | 0.36 | ✗ |
| NYY @ CWS | 8.4 | 14 | 5.6 | 0.49 | ✓ |
| ATL @ NYM | 9.3 | 17 | 7.7 | 0.54 | ✓ |
| ARI @ PIT | 9.2 | 5 | 4.2 | 0.54 | ✓ |
| TOR @ WSH | 9.6 | 5 | 4.6 | 0.54 | ✗ |
| MIL @ SF | 8.6 | 3 | 5.6 | 0.49 | ✗ |
| HOU @ LAA | 8.6 | 10 | 1.4 | 0.54 | ✗ |
| BOS @ OAK | 11.2 | 6 | 5.2 | 0.49 | ✓ |
| BOS @ OAK | 10.7 | 7 | 3.7 | 0.49 | ✗ |
| ARI @ PIT | 9.2 | 15 | 5.8 | 0.49 | ✓ |
| BAL @ DET | 8.4 | 14 | 5.6 | 0.54 | ✓ |
| TOR @ WSH | 9.0 | 14 | 5.0 | 0.54 | ✓ |
| NYY @ CWS | 8.1 | 5 | 3.1 | 0.49 | ✓ |
| KC @ MIN | 9.2 | 5 | 4.2 | 0.59 | ✓ |
| PHI @ MIA | 8.6 | 1 | 7.6 | 0.54 | ✓ |
| HOU @ LAA | 8.8 | 5 | 3.8 | 0.54 | ✗ |
| MIL @ SF | 7.8 | 10 | 2.2 | 0.49 | ✓ |
| CLE @ CIN | 9.0 | 2 | 7.0 | 0.54 | ✓ |
| COL @ SD | 9.1 | 15 | 5.9 | 0.72 | ✓ |
| TOR @ WSH | 9.4 | 7 | 2.4 | 0.54 | ✗ |
| NYY @ CWS | 8.3 | 11 | 2.7 | 0.41 | ✗ |
| BAL @ DET | 7.7 | 19 | 11.3 | 0.54 | ✗ |
| HOU @ LAA | 9.1 | 11 | 1.9 | 0.54 | ✗ |
| KC @ MIN | 9.3 | 4 | 5.3 | 0.72 | ✗ |
| BOS @ OAK | 10.9 | 6 | 4.9 | 0.54 | ✗ |
| PHI @ MIA | 8.0 | 14 | 6.0 | 0.49 | ✗ |
| MIL @ SF | 8.5 | 19 | 10.5 | 0.49 | ✗ |
| SEA @ LAD | 9.1 | 6 | 3.1 | 0.56 | ✓ |
| CHC @ STL | 8.4 | 5 | 3.5 | 0.54 | ✓ |
| CLE @ CIN | 8.1 | 7 | 1.1 | 0.56 | ✗ |
| TEX @ TB | 8.5 | 3 | 5.5 | 0.54 | ✓ |
| ARI @ PIT | 8.8 | 3 | 5.8 | 0.54 | ✗ |
| COL @ SD | 9.6 | 4 | 5.6 | 0.59 | ✓ |
| SEA @ LAD | 9.1 | 8 | 1.1 | 0.54 | ✓ |
| CHC @ STL | 8.7 | 6 | 2.7 | 0.54 | ✗ |
| KC @ MIN | 8.9 | 7 | 1.9 | 0.59 | ✓ |
| SF @ SD | 9.2 | 5 | 4.2 | 0.56 | ✗ |
| PIT @ CIN | 8.7 | 5 | 3.7 | 0.54 | ✓ |
| WSH @ ATL | 9.2 | 9 | 0.2 | 0.59 | ✓ |
| TEX @ TB | 9.0 | 5 | 4.0 | 0.59 | ✓ |
| NYY @ CWS | 8.0 | 3 | 5.0 | 0.56 | ✓ |
| MIA @ NYM | 8.2 | 6 | 2.2 | 0.56 | ✓ |
| BOS @ OAK | 11.0 | 9 | 2.0 | 0.49 | ✓ |
| MIN @ SEA | 8.7 | 8 | 0.7 | 0.54 | ✗ |
| PIT @ CIN | 8.2 | 15 | 6.8 | 0.56 | ✓ |
| KC @ COL | 11.9 | 4 | 7.9 | 0.54 | ✓ |
| MIA @ NYM | 8.8 | 7 | 1.8 | 0.56 | ✗ |
| NYY @ CHC | 8.2 | 2 | 6.2 | 0.54 | ✗ |
| TEX @ HOU | 8.1 | 13 | 4.9 | 0.56 | ✓ |
| CWS @ TB | 8.8 | 7 | 1.8 | 0.56 | ✗ |
| ARI @ CLE | 9.0 | 5 | 4.0 | 0.54 | ✗ |
| MIL @ LAA | 8.7 | 8 | 0.7 | 0.49 | ✓ |
| STL @ TOR | 8.2 | 4 | 4.2 | 0.56 | ✓ |
| WSH @ ATL | 9.2 | 8 | 1.2 | 0.54 | ✓ |
| WSH @ ATL | 9.5 | 11 | 1.5 | 0.56 | ✓ |
| BOS @ LAD | 8.6 | 5 | 3.6 | 0.59 | ✗ |
| NYY @ CHC | 8.6 | 7 | 1.6 | 0.54 | ✓ |
| CWS @ TB | 8.3 | 1 | 7.3 | 0.56 | ✓ |
| MIN @ SEA | 8.2 | 7 | 1.2 | 0.59 | ✓ |
| PIT @ CIN | 8.8 | 5 | 3.8 | 0.54 | ✗ |
| DET @ OAK | 10.8 | 14 | 3.2 | 0.49 | ✓ |
| ARI @ CLE | 8.8 | 20 | 11.2 | 0.54 | ✗ |
| MIL @ LAA | 8.7 | 4 | 4.7 | 0.49 | ✓ |
| MIA @ NYM | 8.7 | 8 | 0.7 | 0.56 | ✗ |
| STL @ TOR | 8.4 | 6 | 2.4 | 0.56 | ✓ |
| PHI @ BAL | 8.5 | 5 | 3.5 | 0.54 | ✗ |
| TEX @ HOU | 8.7 | 9 | 0.3 | 0.56 | ✓ |
| KC @ COL | 11.8 | 18 | 6.2 | 0.54 | ✓ |
| PHI @ BAL | 8.0 | 8 | 0.0 | 0.54 | ✗ |
| WSH @ ATL | 9.3 | 6 | 3.3 | 0.54 | ✓ |
| STL @ TOR | 8.4 | 6 | 2.4 | 0.54 | ✗ |
| MIA @ NYM | 8.5 | 2 | 6.5 | 0.54 | ✗ |
| SF @ SD | 9.2 | 9 | 0.1 | 0.56 | ✓ |
| CWS @ TB | 8.3 | 10 | 1.6 | 0.56 | ✗ |
| TEX @ HOU | 8.3 | 10 | 1.7 | 0.56 | ✓ |
| PIT @ CIN | 8.3 | 12 | 3.7 | 0.56 | ✓ |
| MIL @ LAA | 8.0 | 3 | 5.0 | 0.36 | ✗ |
| NYY @ CHC | 8.4 | 3 | 5.4 | 0.49 | ✓ |
| BOS @ LAD | 8.8 | 12 | 3.2 | 0.56 | ✗ |
| MIN @ SEA | 8.2 | 13 | 4.8 | 0.56 | ✓ |
| ARI @ CLE | 8.3 | 5 | 3.3 | 0.54 | ✓ |
| KC @ COL | 11.7 | 9 | 2.7 | 0.54 | ✓ |
| DET @ OAK | 10.7 | 11 | 0.3 | 0.49 | ✓ |
Across 11,969 final regular-season games with a standard run line, the moneyline favorite laying −1.5 covered 42.8% of the time and won outright 58.3%. We publish no run-line projection — the market prices this one efficiently — so this is the market's record, not ours.
A model-vs-market number only counts games where we captured BOTH our projection and the market's line. Scoring on anything else would quietly flatter the model, so we don't.
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