Week of Jul 27 to Aug 2, 2026 (2026-W31) · model clean_v2 · generated Aug 15, 2026
| Moneyline split | Record | n |
|---|---|---|
| Model's side was the home team | 39–27 | 66 |
| Model's side was the road team | 12–7 | 19 |
| Model's side was the market favorite | 39–23 | 62 |
| Model's side was the market underdog | 10–11 | 21 |
| Coin-flip calls (50-55%) | 29–22 | 51 |
| Moderate calls (55-65%) | 21–11 | 32 |
| Strongest calls (65%+) | not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=2) | |
| Games with a total under 8.5 | 13–8 | 21 |
| Games with a total 8.5-9.5 | 13–10 | 23 |
| Games with a total above 9.5 | 6–0 | 6 |
| Totals split | Our avg miss | Market's | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projection sat above the line | 3.34 | 3.03 | 33 |
| Projection sat below the line | 3.08 | 3.32 | 17 |
| Lines under 8.5 | 3.73 | 3.45 | 21 |
| Lines 8.5-9.5 | 2.69 | 2.72 | 23 |
| Lines above 9.5 | 3.73 | 3.58 | 6 |
| Confidence bucket | We said | It happened | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coin-flip calls (50-55%) | 53.0% | 56.9% | 51 |
| Moderate calls (55-65%) | 57.3% | 65.6% | 32 |
| Strongest calls (65%+) | not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=2) | ||
League base rates for the same games: home teams went 46–39 (n=85); market favorites went 50–33 (60.2%, n=83); overs went 14–33 against the line (n=50). Every model result above sits inside that backdrop.
The three largest totals misses account for 9.9% of the week's total absolute totals error (33.1 of 333.2 runs across 85 games).
COL @ SD (Jul 28): we had the home side at 72%; the home side won.
KC @ MIN (Jul 29): we had the home side at 72%; the away side won. It stays in the record.
One week is a small sample. These are counts of where the results came from, not conclusions about skill; the season-long record is the number that matters.
The point of a public track record is that the misses stay in. Our three largest totals misses this week:
| Game | Projected | Actual | Off by |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL @ DET | 7.7 | 19 | 11.3 |
| ARI @ CLE | 8.8 | 20 | 11.2 |
| MIL @ SF | 8.5 | 19 | 10.5 |
| Game | Proj total | Actual | Miss | Home win% | ML side |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL @ DET | 8.2 | 13 | 4.8 | 0.43 | Hit |
| SEA @ TEX | 8.8 | 10 | 1.2 | 0.54 | Hit |
| PHI @ MIA | 8.2 | 15 | 6.8 | 0.36 | Miss |
| NYY @ CWS | 8.4 | 14 | 5.6 | 0.49 | Hit |
| ATL @ NYM | 9.3 | 17 | 7.7 | 0.54 | Hit |
| ARI @ PIT | 9.2 | 5 | 4.2 | 0.54 | Hit |
| TOR @ WSH | 9.6 | 5 | 4.6 | 0.54 | Miss |
| MIL @ SF | 8.6 | 3 | 5.6 | 0.49 | Miss |
| HOU @ LAA | 8.6 | 10 | 1.4 | 0.54 | Miss |
| BOS @ OAK | 11.2 | 6 | 5.2 | 0.49 | Hit |
| BOS @ OAK | 10.7 | 7 | 3.7 | 0.49 | Miss |
| ARI @ PIT | 9.2 | 15 | 5.8 | 0.49 | Hit |
| BAL @ DET | 8.4 | 14 | 5.6 | 0.54 | Hit |
| TOR @ WSH | 9.0 | 14 | 5.0 | 0.54 | Hit |
| NYY @ CWS | 8.1 | 5 | 3.1 | 0.49 | Hit |
| KC @ MIN | 9.2 | 5 | 4.2 | 0.59 | Hit |
| PHI @ MIA | 8.6 | 1 | 7.6 | 0.54 | Hit |
| HOU @ LAA | 8.8 | 5 | 3.8 | 0.54 | Miss |
| MIL @ SF | 7.8 | 10 | 2.2 | 0.49 | Hit |
| CLE @ CIN | 9.0 | 2 | 7.0 | 0.54 | Hit |
| COL @ SD | 9.1 | 15 | 5.9 | 0.72 | Hit |
| TOR @ WSH | 9.4 | 7 | 2.4 | 0.54 | Miss |
| NYY @ CWS | 8.3 | 11 | 2.7 | 0.41 | Miss |
| BAL @ DET | 7.7 | 19 | 11.3 | 0.54 | Miss |
| HOU @ LAA | 9.1 | 11 | 1.9 | 0.54 | Miss |
| KC @ MIN | 9.3 | 4 | 5.3 | 0.72 | Miss |
| BOS @ OAK | 10.9 | 6 | 4.9 | 0.54 | Miss |
| PHI @ MIA | 8.0 | 14 | 6.0 | 0.49 | Miss |
| MIL @ SF | 8.5 | 19 | 10.5 | 0.49 | Miss |
| SEA @ LAD | 9.1 | 6 | 3.1 | 0.56 | Hit |
| CHC @ STL | 8.4 | 5 | 3.5 | 0.54 | Hit |
| CLE @ CIN | 8.1 | 7 | 1.1 | 0.56 | Miss |
| TEX @ TB | 8.5 | 3 | 5.5 | 0.54 | Hit |
| ARI @ PIT | 8.8 | 3 | 5.8 | 0.54 | Miss |
| COL @ SD | 9.6 | 4 | 5.6 | 0.59 | Hit |
| SEA @ LAD | 9.1 | 8 | 1.1 | 0.54 | Hit |
| CHC @ STL | 8.7 | 6 | 2.7 | 0.54 | Miss |
| KC @ MIN | 8.9 | 7 | 1.9 | 0.59 | Hit |
| SF @ SD | 9.2 | 5 | 4.2 | 0.56 | Miss |
| PIT @ CIN | 8.7 | 5 | 3.7 | 0.54 | Hit |
| WSH @ ATL | 9.2 | 9 | 0.2 | 0.59 | Hit |
| TEX @ TB | 9.0 | 5 | 4.0 | 0.59 | Hit |
| NYY @ CWS | 8.0 | 3 | 5.0 | 0.56 | Hit |
| MIA @ NYM | 8.2 | 6 | 2.2 | 0.56 | Hit |
| BOS @ OAK | 11.0 | 9 | 2.0 | 0.49 | Hit |
| MIN @ SEA | 8.7 | 8 | 0.7 | 0.54 | Miss |
| PIT @ CIN | 8.2 | 15 | 6.8 | 0.56 | Hit |
| KC @ COL | 11.9 | 4 | 7.9 | 0.54 | Hit |
| MIA @ NYM | 8.8 | 7 | 1.8 | 0.56 | Miss |
| NYY @ CHC | 8.2 | 2 | 6.2 | 0.54 | Miss |
| TEX @ HOU | 8.1 | 13 | 4.9 | 0.56 | Hit |
| CWS @ TB | 8.8 | 7 | 1.8 | 0.56 | Miss |
| ARI @ CLE | 9.0 | 5 | 4.0 | 0.54 | Miss |
| MIL @ LAA | 8.7 | 8 | 0.7 | 0.49 | Hit |
| STL @ TOR | 8.2 | 4 | 4.2 | 0.56 | Hit |
| WSH @ ATL | 9.2 | 8 | 1.2 | 0.54 | Hit |
| WSH @ ATL | 9.5 | 11 | 1.5 | 0.56 | Hit |
| BOS @ LAD | 8.6 | 5 | 3.6 | 0.59 | Miss |
| NYY @ CHC | 8.6 | 7 | 1.6 | 0.54 | Hit |
| CWS @ TB | 8.3 | 1 | 7.3 | 0.56 | Hit |
| MIN @ SEA | 8.2 | 7 | 1.2 | 0.59 | Hit |
| PIT @ CIN | 8.8 | 5 | 3.8 | 0.54 | Miss |
| DET @ OAK | 10.8 | 14 | 3.2 | 0.49 | Hit |
| ARI @ CLE | 8.8 | 20 | 11.2 | 0.54 | Miss |
| MIL @ LAA | 8.7 | 4 | 4.7 | 0.49 | Hit |
| MIA @ NYM | 8.7 | 8 | 0.7 | 0.56 | Miss |
| STL @ TOR | 8.4 | 6 | 2.4 | 0.56 | Hit |
| PHI @ BAL | 8.5 | 5 | 3.5 | 0.54 | Miss |
| TEX @ HOU | 8.7 | 9 | 0.3 | 0.56 | Hit |
| KC @ COL | 11.8 | 18 | 6.2 | 0.54 | Hit |
| PHI @ BAL | 8.0 | 8 | 0.0 | 0.54 | Miss |
| WSH @ ATL | 9.3 | 6 | 3.3 | 0.54 | Hit |
| STL @ TOR | 8.4 | 6 | 2.4 | 0.54 | Miss |
| MIA @ NYM | 8.5 | 2 | 6.5 | 0.54 | Miss |
| SF @ SD | 9.2 | 9 | 0.1 | 0.56 | Hit |
| CWS @ TB | 8.3 | 10 | 1.6 | 0.56 | Miss |
| TEX @ HOU | 8.3 | 10 | 1.7 | 0.56 | Hit |
| PIT @ CIN | 8.3 | 12 | 3.7 | 0.56 | Hit |
| MIL @ LAA | 8.0 | 3 | 5.0 | 0.36 | Miss |
| NYY @ CHC | 8.4 | 3 | 5.4 | 0.49 | Hit |
| BOS @ LAD | 8.8 | 12 | 3.2 | 0.56 | Miss |
| MIN @ SEA | 8.2 | 13 | 4.8 | 0.56 | Hit |
| ARI @ CLE | 8.3 | 5 | 3.3 | 0.54 | Hit |
| KC @ COL | 11.7 | 9 | 2.7 | 0.54 | Hit |
| DET @ OAK | 10.7 | 11 | 0.3 | 0.49 | Hit |
Across 11,972 final regular-season games with a standard run line, the moneyline favorite laying −1.5 covered 42.8% of the time and won outright 58.3%. We publish no run-line projection, because the market prices this one efficiently, so this is the market's record, not ours.
A model-vs-market number only counts games where we captured BOTH our projection and the market's line. Scoring on anything else would quietly flatter the model, so we don't.
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