A report, not advice. Every projection below was logged before first pitch in our immutable record and graded after the game. nothing is added or removed later. We publish
no pick, lean or edge; this page reports how our numbers did,
including the misses. The market's line is shown for context only.
How we did
Graded MLB games, Jul 20 to 26, 2026 · reports, not picks
Moneyline record
42-48
46.7% higher-prob side
our >50% side won
Moneyline Brier
0.251
vs 0.250 coin flip
lower is better
Totals avg miss
3.63
runs |proj − actual|
90 games
Totals vs market
n/a
line capture just began
0 lined games this week
We can't show model-vs-market on totals yet: opening totals weren't captured on this week's graded games, so graded-and-lined games = 0. A model-vs-market number only counts games where we have both sides. In our held-out research backtest the model trails the market by 0.06 runs (3.52 vs 3.46); the live number turns on as lined games accrue.
Where the week's results came from
A fixed set of splits, published every week whether it flatters us or not · slices under n=5 show their count and no rate
| Moneyline split | Record | n |
|---|
| Model's side was the home team | 39–40 | 79 |
| Model's side was the road team | 3–8 | 11 |
| Model's side was the market favorite | 37–37 | 74 |
| Model's side was the market underdog | 5–9 | 14 |
| Coin-flip calls (50-55%) | 22–30 | 52 |
| Moderate calls (55-65%) | 19–18 | 37 |
| Strongest calls (65%+) | not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=1) |
| Games with a total under 8.5 | not scored: no opening total captured for these games (n=0) |
| Games with a total 8.5-9.5 | not scored: no opening total captured for these games (n=0) |
| Games with a total above 9.5 | not scored: no opening total captured for these games (n=0) |
| Totals split | Our avg miss | Market's | n |
|---|
| Projection sat above the line | not scored: no opening total captured for these games (n=0) |
| Projection sat below the line | not scored: no opening total captured for these games (n=0) |
| Lines under 8.5 | not scored: no opening total captured for these games (n=0) |
| Lines 8.5-9.5 | not scored: no opening total captured for these games (n=0) |
| Lines above 9.5 | not scored: no opening total captured for these games (n=0) |
| Confidence bucket | We said | It happened | n |
|---|
| Coin-flip calls (50-55%) | 53.2% | 42.3% | 52 |
| Moderate calls (55-65%) | 56.8% | 51.4% | 37 |
| Strongest calls (65%+) | not scored: below the n=5 floor (n=1) |
League base rates for the same games: home teams went 47–43 (n=90); market favorites went 46–42 (52.3%, n=88). Every model result above sits inside that backdrop.
The three largest totals misses account for 8.8% of the week's total absolute totals error (28.7 of 326.4 runs across 90 games).
Strongest call that landed
KC @ DET (Jul 24): we had the home side at 72%; the home side won.
Final KC 1, DET 2; opening price on that side -271; the archived probables started.
Strongest call that missed
CWS @ TEX (Jul 20): we had the home side at 59%; the away side won. It stays in the record.
Final CWS 10, TEX 3; opening price on that side -172; the archived probables started.
One week is a small sample. These are counts of where the results came from, not conclusions about skill; the season-long record is the number that matters.
The biggest misses
We show them on purpose · totals, Jul 20 to 26, 2026
The point of a public track record is that the misses stay in. Our three largest totals misses this week:
| Game | Projected | Actual | Off by |
|---|
| OAK @ ARI | 9.2 | 20 | 10.8 |
| OAK @ MIN | 9.6 | 19 | 9.4 |
| MIN @ CLE | 8.4 | 17 | 8.6 |
Every graded game
Projected total vs. actual, and whether our higher-probability moneyline side won · 90 games
| Game | Proj total | Actual | Miss | Home win% | ML side |
|---|
| BAL @ BOS | 8.4 | 11 | 2.6 | 0.54 | Hit |
| LAD @ PHI | 8.9 | 17 | 8.1 | 0.54 | Hit |
| WSH @ COL | 11.2 | 10 | 1.2 | 0.54 | Miss |
| PIT @ NYY | 8.6 | 13 | 4.4 | 0.54 | Hit |
| OAK @ ARI | 9.5 | 7 | 2.5 | 0.56 | Miss |
| MIA @ HOU | 9.0 | 13 | 4.0 | 0.54 | Hit |
| DET @ CHC | 8.9 | 14 | 5.1 | 0.54 | Miss |
| STL @ LAA | 9.0 | 5 | 4.0 | 0.56 | Hit |
| CIN @ SEA | 8.2 | 8 | 0.2 | 0.56 | Hit |
| CWS @ TEX | 9.1 | 13 | 3.9 | 0.59 | Miss |
| NYM @ MIL | 8.2 | 11 | 2.8 | 0.59 | Hit |
| SD @ ATL | 9.7 | 5 | 4.7 | 0.56 | Hit |
| SF @ KC | 9.7 | 7 | 2.7 | 0.49 | Miss |
| MIN @ CLE | 8.4 | 17 | 8.6 | 0.49 | Miss |
| TB @ TOR | 8.2 | 8 | 0.2 | 0.56 | Miss |
| MIN @ CLE | 8.4 | 7 | 1.4 | 0.56 | Hit |
| WSH @ COL | 12.2 | 15 | 2.8 | 0.54 | Hit |
| TB @ TOR | 8.5 | 14 | 5.5 | 0.56 | Miss |
| CWS @ TEX | 9.5 | 10 | 0.5 | 0.54 | Hit |
| STL @ LAA | 8.6 | 6 | 2.6 | 0.54 | Hit |
| DET @ CHC | 9.4 | 13 | 3.6 | 0.49 | Miss |
| CIN @ SEA | 8.3 | 6 | 2.4 | 0.54 | Miss |
| LAD @ PHI | 8.5 | 3 | 5.5 | 0.54 | Miss |
| MIA @ HOU | 8.9 | 8 | 0.9 | 0.54 | Hit |
| OAK @ ARI | 9.5 | 11 | 1.5 | 0.54 | Hit |
| SF @ KC | 9.4 | 5 | 4.4 | 0.49 | Miss |
| NYM @ MIL | 8.7 | 4 | 4.7 | 0.56 | Miss |
| SD @ ATL | 9.2 | 11 | 1.8 | 0.56 | Miss |
| BAL @ BOS | 8.5 | 6 | 2.5 | 0.49 | Hit |
| LAD @ PHI | 9.3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0.54 | Miss |
| MIA @ HOU | 9.2 | 7 | 2.1 | 0.54 | Hit |
| CWS @ TEX | 9.2 | 6 | 3.2 | 0.54 | Miss |
| CIN @ SEA | 8.3 | 8 | 0.3 | 0.56 | Miss |
| DET @ CHC | 8.9 | 6 | 2.9 | 0.54 | Miss |
| STL @ LAA | 9.0 | 1 | 8.0 | 0.54 | Miss |
| SF @ KC | 9.3 | 9 | 0.3 | 0.49 | Miss |
| NYM @ MIL | 8.8 | 7 | 1.8 | 0.56 | Hit |
| MIN @ CLE | 8.7 | 16 | 7.3 | 0.54 | Miss |
| WSH @ COL | 10.4 | 8 | 2.5 | 0.54 | Miss |
| OAK @ ARI | 9.2 | 20 | 10.8 | 0.56 | Hit |
| SD @ ATL | 9.2 | 11 | 1.9 | 0.56 | Hit |
| TB @ TOR | 9.0 | 4 | 5.0 | 0.49 | Miss |
| KC @ DET | 8.7 | 7 | 1.7 | 0.59 | Hit |
| MIN @ CLE | 8.4 | 4 | 4.4 | 0.56 | Miss |
| ARI @ STL | 8.9 | 16 | 7.1 | 0.54 | Miss |
| ARI @ WSH | 9.7 | 5 | 4.7 | 0.49 | Hit |
| LAA @ SF | 8.6 | 13 | 4.4 | 0.59 | Hit |
| CHC @ PIT | 8.2 | 5 | 3.1 | 0.54 | Miss |
| CLE @ TB | 8.8 | 14 | 5.2 | 0.54 | Hit |
| NYY @ PHI | 8.5 | 1 | 7.5 | 0.56 | Miss |
| ATL @ BAL | 8.9 | 13 | 4.0 | 0.54 | Miss |
| SD @ MIA | 9.4 | 6 | 3.4 | 0.54 | Miss |
| OAK @ MIN | 9.4 | 2 | 7.4 | 0.56 | Miss |
| KC @ DET | 8.2 | 3 | 5.2 | 0.72 | Hit |
| SEA @ TEX | 9.2 | 9 | 0.2 | 0.54 | Hit |
| TOR @ BOS | 8.4 | 10 | 1.6 | 0.56 | Hit |
| LAD @ NYM | 9.3 | 6 | 3.3 | 0.54 | Miss |
| COL @ MIL | 8.6 | 7 | 1.6 | 0.59 | Miss |
| HOU @ CWS | 9.0 | 14 | 5.0 | 0.54 | Miss |
| CIN @ STL | 8.7 | 6 | 2.7 | 0.56 | Miss |
| HOU @ CWS | 8.1 | 5 | 3.1 | 0.56 | Miss |
| OAK @ MIN | 9.5 | 2 | 7.5 | 0.56 | Hit |
| ATL @ BAL | 8.8 | 5 | 3.8 | 0.54 | Hit |
| ARI @ WSH | 9.8 | 8 | 1.8 | 0.54 | Hit |
| SD @ MIA | 8.5 | 9 | 0.5 | 0.56 | Miss |
| KC @ DET | 8.5 | 5 | 3.5 | 0.56 | Miss |
| CLE @ TB | 9.3 | 3 | 6.3 | 0.56 | Hit |
| COL @ MIL | 8.5 | 13 | 4.5 | 0.59 | Hit |
| SEA @ TEX | 8.8 | 8 | 0.8 | 0.56 | Hit |
| CHC @ PIT | 8.3 | 11 | 2.7 | 0.55 | Miss |
| LAD @ NYM | 8.4 | 7 | 1.4 | 0.54 | Miss |
| TOR @ BOS | 8.2 | 6 | 2.2 | 0.56 | Miss |
| NYY @ PHI | 9.6 | 4 | 5.6 | 0.49 | Hit |
| CIN @ STL | 8.6 | 7 | 1.6 | 0.54 | Hit |
| LAA @ SF | 8.4 | 11 | 2.6 | 0.56 | Hit |
| LAD @ NYM | 8.6 | 11 | 2.4 | 0.54 | Hit |
| NYY @ PHI | 9.2 | 15 | 5.8 | 0.54 | Hit |
| SD @ MIA | 8.9 | 8 | 0.9 | 0.54 | Miss |
| CHC @ PIT | 9.0 | 15 | 6.0 | 0.54 | Hit |
| TOR @ BOS | 8.0 | 7 | 1.0 | 0.56 | Hit |
| KC @ DET | 8.6 | 9 | 0.4 | 0.59 | Miss |
| ARI @ WSH | 10.2 | 17 | 6.8 | 0.49 | Miss |
| LAA @ SF | 8.3 | 7 | 1.3 | 0.54 | Miss |
| SEA @ TEX | 8.2 | 10 | 1.8 | 0.54 | Miss |
| CIN @ STL | 8.8 | 8 | 0.8 | 0.54 | Miss |
| OAK @ MIN | 9.6 | 19 | 9.4 | 0.56 | Hit |
| HOU @ CWS | 8.4 | 15 | 6.6 | 0.49 | Miss |
| COL @ MIL | 8.2 | 13 | 4.8 | 0.65 | Hit |
| ATL @ BAL | 8.6 | 5 | 3.6 | 0.56 | Miss |
| CLE @ TB | 9.2 | 1 | 8.2 | 0.54 | Hit |
What the market says
A market we deliberately don't model: the market's own record
MLB run line
42.8% of −1.5 favorites cover
Across 11,972 final regular-season games with a standard run line, the moneyline favorite laying −1.5 covered 42.8% of the time and won outright 58.3%. We publish no run-line projection, because the market prices this one efficiently, so this is the market's record, not ours.
Market benchmark, not a Nebula projection.
One number: Why we show the losses
A rotating look at how we grade ourselves
Every projection is logged before first pitch, immutably, and graded after the game. Nothing is added or removed later. The misses stay in. A record you can only read forward is the only kind worth trusting.
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