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Model vs Market · Week in Review

MLB projections vs. the market

Week of Jul 20–26, 2026 (2026-W30) · model clean_v2 · generated Jul 24, 2026

A report, not advice. Every projection below was logged before first pitch in our immutable record and graded after the game — nothing is added or removed later. We publish no pick, lean or edge; this page reports how our numbers did, including the misses. The market's line is shown for context only.

How we did

Graded MLB games, Jul 20–26, 2026 · reports, not picks
Games graded
40
2026-W30
Moneyline record
18-22
45.0% higher-prob side
our >50% side won
Moneyline Brier
0.253
vs 0.250 coin flip
lower is better
Totals avg miss
3.49
runs |proj − actual|
40 games
Totals vs market
—
line capture just began
0 lined games this week

We can't show model-vs-market on totals yet: opening totals weren't captured on this week's graded games, so graded-and-lined games = 0. A model-vs-market number only counts games where we have both sides. In our held-out research backtest the model trails the market by 0.06 runs (3.52 vs 3.46); the live number turns on as lined games accrue.

The biggest misses

We show them on purpose · totals, Jul 20–26, 2026

The point of a public track record is that the misses stay in. Our three largest totals misses this week:

GameProjectedActualOff by
OAK @ ARI9.22010.8
MIN @ CLE8.4178.6
LAD @ PHI8.9178.1

Every graded game

Projected total vs. actual, and whether our higher-probability moneyline side won · 40 games
GameProj totalActualMissHome win%ML side
BAL @ BOS8.4112.60.54✓
LAD @ PHI8.9178.10.54✓
WSH @ COL11.2101.20.54✗
PIT @ NYY8.6134.40.54✓
OAK @ ARI9.572.50.56✗
MIA @ HOU9.0134.00.54✓
DET @ CHC8.9145.10.54✗
STL @ LAA9.054.00.56✓
CIN @ SEA8.280.20.56✓
CWS @ TEX9.1133.90.59✗
NYM @ MIL8.2112.80.59✓
SD @ ATL9.754.70.56✓
SF @ KC9.772.70.49✗
MIN @ CLE8.4178.60.49✗
TB @ TOR8.280.20.56✗
MIN @ CLE8.471.40.56✓
WSH @ COL12.2152.80.54✓
TB @ TOR8.5145.50.56✗
CWS @ TEX9.5100.50.54✓
STL @ LAA8.662.60.54✓
DET @ CHC9.4133.60.49✗
CIN @ SEA8.362.40.54✗
LAD @ PHI8.535.50.54✗
MIA @ HOU8.980.90.54✓
OAK @ ARI9.5111.50.54✓
SF @ KC9.454.40.49✗
NYM @ MIL8.744.70.56✗
SD @ ATL9.2111.80.56✗
BAL @ BOS8.562.50.49✓
LAD @ PHI9.3144.70.54✗
MIA @ HOU9.272.10.54✓
CWS @ TEX9.263.20.54✗
CIN @ SEA8.380.30.56✗
DET @ CHC8.962.90.54✗
STL @ LAA9.018.00.54✗
SF @ KC9.390.30.49✗
NYM @ MIL8.871.80.56✓
MIN @ CLE8.7167.30.54✗
WSH @ COL10.482.50.54✗
OAK @ ARI9.22010.80.56✓

What the market says

A market we deliberately don't model — the market's own record
MLB run line
42.8% of −1.5 favorites cover

Across 11,969 final regular-season games with a standard run line, the moneyline favorite laying −1.5 covered 42.8% of the time and won outright 58.3%. We publish no run-line projection — the market prices this one efficiently — so this is the market's record, not ours.

Market benchmark — not a Nebula projection.

One number — Why we show the losses

A rotating look at how we grade ourselves

Every projection is logged before first pitch, immutably, and graded after the game. Nothing is added or removed later — the misses stay in. A record you can only read forward is the only kind worth trusting.

Keep reading

The full record and the live board
Full track record →All insightsMLB boardHow we grade