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Model vs Market · Week in Review

MLB projections vs. the market

Week of Jul 13–19, 2026 (2026-W29) · model clean_v2 · generated Jul 19, 2026

A report, not advice. Every projection below was logged before first pitch in our immutable record and graded after the game — nothing is added or removed later. We publish no pick, lean or edge; this page reports how our numbers did, including the misses. The market's line is shown for context only.

How we did

Graded MLB games, Jul 13–19, 2026 · reports, not picks
Games graded
28
2026-W29
Moneyline record
20-8
71.4% higher-prob side
our >50% side won
Moneyline Brier
0.233
better than 0.250 coin flip
lower is better
Totals avg miss
3.80
runs |proj − actual|
28 games
Totals vs market
—
line capture just began
0 lined games this week

We can't show model-vs-market on totals yet: opening totals weren't captured on this week's graded games, so graded-and-lined games = 0. A model-vs-market number only counts games where we have both sides. In our held-out research backtest the model trails the market by 0.06 runs (3.52 vs 3.46); the live number turns on as lined games accrue.

The biggest misses

We show them on purpose · totals, Jul 13–19, 2026

The point of a public track record is that the misses stay in. Our three largest totals misses this week:

GameProjectedActualOff by
WSH @ OAK11.22715.8
CWS @ TOR9.418.4
CWS @ TOR8.7167.3

Every graded game

Projected total vs. actual, and whether our higher-probability moneyline side won · 28 games
GameProj totalActualMissHome win%ML side
NYM @ PHI9.454.50.56✗
MIA @ MIL8.235.20.56✓
TEX @ ATL8.9167.10.56✓
SF @ SEA8.271.10.56✗
STL @ ARI9.190.10.56✗
TB @ BOS8.880.80.54✓
SD @ KC9.9133.10.54✓
MIN @ CHC9.572.50.54✗
CWS @ TOR8.7167.30.54✗
BAL @ HOU8.954.00.49✓
DET @ LAA8.635.60.49✓
WSH @ OAK11.22715.80.49✓
CIN @ COL10.891.80.49✓
LAD @ NYY9.136.10.54✗
TEX @ ATL9.0134.00.54✗
MIN @ CHC8.980.90.54✓
PIT @ CLE8.880.80.54✓
CIN @ COL11.8131.20.54✓
CWS @ TOR9.418.40.56✓
MIA @ MIL8.2145.80.56✓
STL @ ARI9.181.10.54✓
BAL @ HOU9.363.30.49✓
TB @ BOS8.2134.80.49✗
NYM @ PHI8.871.80.56✓
DET @ LAA8.271.20.35✓
SD @ KC9.472.40.54✓
WSH @ OAK11.3164.70.54✓
SF @ SEA8.271.20.59✓

What the market says

A market we deliberately don't model — the market's own record
MLB run line
42.8% of −1.5 favorites cover

Across 11,969 final regular-season games with a standard run line, the moneyline favorite laying −1.5 covered 42.8% of the time and won outright 58.3%. We publish no run-line projection — the market prices this one efficiently — so this is the market's record, not ours.

Market benchmark — not a Nebula projection.

One number — Mean absolute error (MAE)

A rotating look at how we grade ourselves

Our totals number is graded on average miss — |projected runs − actual runs|. In our held-out research backtest the model's MAE is 3.52 runs versus the market's 3.46: we trail by 0.06. We say so plainly.

Keep reading

The full record and the live board
Full track record →All insightsMLB boardHow we grade