Across 12,667 MLB games from 2020 to 2025, 49.1% of decided games went over the total. Across 1,693 NFL games the figure was 49.0%. Pushes, where the score landed exactly on the number, are excluded from both rates and reported separately.
Today's totals are on the MLB odds board.
The headline
Both sit near half, which is the expected result. A total is a two-sided market priced at roughly −110 on each side; if either side hit meaningfully more often, the number would move until it stopped doing so.
What is worth publishing is the actual measurement, season by season, with the pushes counted separately rather than folded in.
MLB, by season
| Season | Games | Over | Under | Push | Over rate (decided) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 844 | 394 | 407 | 43 | 49.2% |
| 2021 | 2,322 | 1,106 | 1,121 | 95 | 49.7% |
| 2022 | 2,477 | 1,137 | 1,220 | 120 | 48.2% |
| 2023 | 2,378 | 1,142 | 1,145 | 91 | 49.9% |
| 2024 | 2,405 | 1,149 | 1,158 | 98 | 49.8% |
| 2025 | 2,241 | 1,022 | 1,121 | 98 | 47.7% |
MLB, 2020–2025. 4.30% of games landed exactly on the total and pushed; those are excluded from the over rate. Doubleheaders are excluded from the sample entirely.
NFL, by season
| Season | Games | Over | Under | Push | Over rate (decided) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 269 | 134 | 129 | 6 | 51.0% |
| 2021 | 285 | 130 | 152 | 3 | 46.1% |
| 2022 | 284 | 126 | 157 | 1 | 44.5% |
| 2023 | 285 | 131 | 150 | 4 | 46.6% |
| 2024 | 285 | 153 | 129 | 3 | 54.3% |
| 2025 | 285 | 147 | 136 | 2 | 51.9% |
NFL regular season and playoffs, 2020–2025. 1.12% pushed.
Single seasons swing several points either side of half in both leagues. That is sampling noise on a few hundred to a couple of thousand games, not a trend: the pooled figures are the ones that carry weight, and they are the ones quoted at the top.
Opening number versus the last one we hold
Totals move. Measuring against the earliest total we hold for each game instead of the last one before the first pitch or kickoff shifts the answer slightly:
| League | Games | Over rate vs last total | Over rate vs first total |
|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 12,667 | 49.08% | 48.97% |
| NFL | 1,693 | 49.04% | 47.27% |
Same games in both columns; only the reference total changes. The gap is a measure of how much the total moved between our first and last observation, not of anyone's skill.
Why “the over hits X% of the time” is usually stated badly
- Pushes get hidden. Folding pushes into the under inflates the under rate. We report them as their own column.
- The reference line is left unsaid. An over rate against an opening number is a different measurement from one against a number taken hours later.
- The window is left unsaid. A single season of NFL totals is about 280 games; that is not enough to tell a genuine three-percentage-point difference from noise.
How this was measured
- MLB: 12,667 games from 2020 to 2025 matched unambiguously between our odds archive and our results archive. Doubleheaders and duplicate events are excluded rather than guessed at, because the two sources share no game identifier and our results table holds no start time.
- NFL: 1,693 games, regular season and playoffs, matched through the canonical event map so that duplicate listings of one game cannot be counted twice.
- The total for each game is the discrete median across at least three sportsbooks at the reference snapshot, so it is a number a book actually posted and can genuinely push.
- Over rate is computed on decided games only; pushes are reported separately.
- Our snapshots sit on a daily grid, so the “last” total is the last day we observed before the game, not a closing line. We do not hold kickoff-minute prices.
- Produced by
repo_check/seo/f31_lake_stats.pyon a read-only database session. - Odds archive current to 2026-07-28. Figures refresh when the source scripts are re-run.
Next steps
Frequently asked questions
How often does the over hit in MLB?
49.1% of decided games across 12,667 games from 2020 to 2025, measured against the consensus total at the last pre-game snapshot we hold.
How often does the over hit in the NFL?
49.0% of decided games across 1,693 games over the same seasons.
Are pushes counted as unders?
Not here. 4.30% of MLB games and 1.12% of NFL games landed exactly on the total; they are reported in their own column and excluded from the over rate.
Does the over hit more often than the under?
Not to any degree our sample can distinguish from noise. Both leagues sit within a couple of points of half over six seasons.
Related: MLB odds board · NFL odds board · how often lines move · methodology
Every figure on this page is a historical measurement of what already happened, produced by a committed, re-runnable script over our own odds archive. Past frequencies are not forecasts and are not betting advice: Nebula Insights publishes no picks, no selections and no recommended wagers. 18+ only.